It seems Russia is indeed losing the race. It entered it weakened.
The deficit of Russia’s federal budget for the first two months of 2026 reached 3.45 trillion rubles, which is about 1.5% of GDP.
The annual deficit plan was effectively exhausted in less than two months. Budget revenues show a noticeable deterioration. Total revenues amounted to 4.8 trillion rubles — this is 10% less than the same period last year.
The net profit of Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft in 2025 decreased by 73%.
The key factor was a sharp drop in oil and gas revenues, which fell by 47%. At the same time, non-oil and gas revenues showed only moderate growth — by 4%.
It seemed that the easing of sanctions initiated by Trump opened up chances for a comeback.
Asian countries are even ready to increase consumption…
But then drones hit.
And Russia’s oil exports sharply reduced after Ukrainian drone attacks on key Baltic ports of the Russian Federation.
In the week from March 22 to 29, the total volume of maritime exports fell by 43% — from 4.072 to 2.318 million barrels per day. During this period, only 22 tankers left Russian ports, which is 15 less than the previous week.
The biggest drop was logically recorded in the Baltic direction. From the port of Primorsk — Russia’s main oil hub — only 4 tankers were sent compared to 10 a week earlier.
The financial losses of Russian oil companies also turned out to be significant. In a week of problems with the Baltic infrastructure, export earnings decreased from $2.45 billion to $1.44 billion, despite the rise in the price of Russian Urals oil by $11.3 — to $73.24 per barrel.
Thus, strikes on the port infrastructure of the Baltic Sea have led to the largest decline in Russian maritime oil exports since the beginning of the full-scale war.
Moreover, drone attacks continue to hinder the operation of Russia’s oil infrastructure and complicate raw material exports.
The Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in the Leningrad region, which shut down after drone strikes, will only be able to partially resume work in about a month.
During this period, they can start up three of the four primary processing units, allowing the plant to operate at about 60% capacity. Fuel production may partially recover, but further export remains problematic due to damage to key port nodes.
Meanwhile, Bashkortostan was also hit.
The situation is worsened by repeated attacks on Baltic export ports. In particular, the Port of Ust-Luga suffered at least five strikes in ten days, resulting in damage to the oil terminal. Previously, Port Primorsk — one of the main channels for exporting Russian oil — was also attacked.
Even with a partial restart of processing, Russia faces increasingly serious constraints on oil and oil product exports due to systematic strikes on logistical infrastructure.
To reiterate, the backdrop is very negative for the aggressors. The deficit of Russia’s federal budget for the first two months of 2026 reached 3.45 trillion rubles, which is about 1.5% of GDP. Thus, the annual deficit plan was effectively exhausted in less than two months.
Drone attacks do not allow them to lift their heads. More attacks, good and diverse.
All diplomacy — ensure a ceasefire without fantasies about “withdrawal from Donbas.”
They are already negotiating. It is necessary to finish them off. For this, provide all means and not let our heroes down here in the rear.
Only then will there be more progress.
