Putin cannot win the war against Ukrainians. Not due to a lack of resources, but because of the very goal he has set: to eliminate Ukrainians as a separate nation. To physically destroy some, and to force others to renounce their own identity for survival. This aim is evident from his statements and actions. And it’s an unachievable strategy.
In fact, Putin is trying to continue the mission of one of his inspirations — Stalin. He also clearly understood that the existence of Ukrainians as a nation is a threat to the empire. Yet even Stalin could not achieve this goal, despite having significantly more favorable conditions: most Ukrainians were already within his state, capable of mass terror. Most, but not all. Some remained beyond his reach. And the attempt to “finish the job” in the territories annexed after 1939 encountered persistent, prolonged, and well-organized resistance. It was suppressed, but at the cost of an exhaustion that undermined the empire. It began to crack immediately after Stalin’s death. Eventually, the memory of this resistance became one of the factors in its collapse.
Putin does not even have such opportunities. He does not control the territories where most Ukrainians live. Therefore, he can only implement his strategy in the occupied lands — and he is doing so. It is terrifying and painful for us, but it is insufficient for him.
Moreover, the very threat of destruction mobilizes most Ukrainians, awakening some of those who remained indifferent to their identity. It adds strength, consolidates society, and makes the implementation of the plan even less likely. This threat also destroys the “soft power” tools that Russia successfully used for Russification for years before the war started in 2014.
Thus, Putin is already losing today.
And he will ultimately lose precisely because his strategy is flawed, built on an unrealistic goal. And such strategies always lead to defeat. Perhaps not as quickly as we would like, but inevitably. And no changes in tactics (of which there are actually few) will alter this. So, let us hold on, invest in the common cause of victory, and we will witness the collapse of the empire.
