At the end of the week, the leader of Poland’s main opposition party “Law and Justice” (PiS) Jarosław Kaczyński announced that more than 30 members will leave the political force — effectively the biggest split in its history. The exclusion of parliamentarians associated with the more moderate wing of the party, gathered around former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, is a significant reshuffle of the Polish right wing and accelerates the process of its further fragmentation, notes the publication BBC.
For many years, PiS has tried to maintain its position as the dominant force on the right flank of Polish politics, uniting both centrist politicians and right-wing nationalists, leading to rivalries between different factions within the party. However, this time it is much larger in scale than previous internal conflicts.
The divisions became publicly visible after Morawiecki was overlooked for the party’s candidate for the position of prime minister in next year’s elections in March. Instead, PiS nominated Przemysław Czarnek, who represents a more national-conservative wing of the party.
“The split was not inevitable. In my opinion, the reason lies in the approaching elections and the dynamics of sociological polls: the ‘Civic Coalition’ remains the strongest (around 30%), while right-wing parties (‘Confederation’ and ‘Polish Crown Confederation’) are gaining strength and have about 26%, and PiS — only about 21%,” says Polish political scientist, PhD in political sciences, research associate at the Institute of Political Sciences and Administration and the Center for European Competencies at Maria Curie-Skłodowska University (UMCS) in Lublin, Jakub Olchowski, in a comment to Tyzhden.
According to him, PiS support is not growing because many voters of this party probably do not like Przemysław Czarnek, who is presented as PiS’s candidate for prime minister.
“Compared to him, Mateusz Morawiecki is perceived as a moderate, sensible, and balanced politician. The question is only whether this ‘split’ is not a political trick — Morawiecki aims to attract voters and votes, and after the elections, it may turn out that PiS and Morawiecki are ‘in love’ again,” adds Jakub Olchowski to Tyzhden.
Meanwhile, British political scientist of Polish descent, professor of politics at the University of Sussex (UK), specializing in contemporary Polish politics, the party system of Poland, and the conservative movement, Aleks Szczerbiak is convinced that the reasons for the crisis and the split are a combination of ideological differences and personal ambitions.
“But there is nothing here that could not be easily contained within a broad center-right/conservative political coalition if both sides were willing to make mutual concessions. Emotional tension just became too high, and the conflict participants found themselves trapped in the logic of polarization, which led them to the split. At the same time, this could have been entirely avoided — moreover, their actions were illogical,” he tells Tyzhden.
In April, Morawiecki founded the association “Rozwój Plus,” which, according to him, is primarily meant to serve as an economic analytical center for people who critically assess certain actions of PiS and the “Confederation.” However, some leading PiS politicians have deemed this association the beginning of a plan to create a rival party. Morawiecki denied these accusations, repeating this even after Kaczyński’s decision.
He also rejects an alliance with Donald Tusk’s party. “For us, disputes within the right-wing camp are family quarrels. But together we direct the main blow at the ruling coalition that is devastating our home,” he insists. Meanwhile, the Polish Prime Minister drew attention to the political rhetoric accompanying the aforementioned split.
“In the last few hours, I’ve learned from some PiS politicians that Morawiecki is my agent and Germany’s agent. Honestly, I never expected it to go this far. All of this could be turned into a grim joke, but in reality, this is not the first time we’ve witnessed such significant political disorder and chaos. I believe that in politics, people who constantly provoke conflicts and ongoing political turmoil are simply dangerous,” said Tusk.
According to Alek Szczebiak, in the short term, there will be fierce competition among Poland’s right-wing political forces.
“Mateusz Morawiecki and his supporters will spend a lot of time criticizing their former colleagues from PiS. As the elections approach, the pressure to form fewer right-wing electoral alliances, especially to the Senate, chosen by a first-past-the-post system of relative majority, will become stronger. I wouldn’t rule out that eventually Morawiecki and his supporters might run together with PiS as part of a ‘united right’ list, although this scenario is likely improbable. President Karol Nawrocki will play a key role in this process,” he emphasizes to Tyzgniu.
In a strategic perspective, the fragmentation of the largest opposition force can change the balance between political camps, which under certain conditions, could strengthen the positions of the pro-European coalition. This is important for Ukraine, as it is currently the main proponent of policies supporting Kyiv and its European integration.
“I don’t know how right-wing politicians will use the theme of Polish-Ukrainian relations, but I am absolutely sure they will do it—this issue evokes strong emotions in society, and emotions are an ideal tool for politicians. And since political rivalry on the right flank is so intense, unfortunately, we can expect a brutal fight. Ukraine will play a prominent role in it,” adds Tyzgniu Jakub Olchowski.
Meanwhile, Alek Szczebiak notes that Poland’s policy towards Ukraine is unlikely to become the main issue dividing supporters of PiS and Morawiecki’s camp.
“The approach of Polish right-wingers to this matter is primarily determined by changing public moods towards Ukraine, especially among the right-wing electorate. At the same time, Morawiecki and his associates might criticize PiS if they believe the party leadership goes too far in its statements—as Ryszard Czarnecki did when he stated that EU military support for Ukraine could be stopped,” he adds to Tyzgniu.
Illustration: Tyzhden
