Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 15.05.2026.
1. Ukrainian drones attacked the Ryazan Oil Refinery on the night of May 15 — one of Russia’s largest refineries, owned by “Rosneft.”
– According to photos and videos from eyewitnesses, large columns of black smoke rose over Ryazan after the strike. Ukrainian monitoring resource Exilenova+ reported that the target of the attack was the Ryazan Oil Refinery.
– The plant’s capacity is about 17 million tons of oil per year. The refinery is a key element of Russia’s fuel infrastructure and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, fuel oil, and petrochemical raw materials.
– The Ryazan Oil Refinery has been hit by Ukrainian drones multiple times. At the end of 2025, the facility temporarily ceased operations after a massive fire.
2. The Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant of “Gazprom” halted the production of motor fuel after a drone attack on May 13.
– A key gas condensate processing unit with a capacity of about 3 million tons per year was disabled at the facility. It was used to produce gasoline and diesel fuel.
– Estimates suggest that restoring operations could take from several weeks to several months. The Astrakhan GPP is one of the key objects of “Gazprom” in the field of gas condensate processing.
– The new damages further complicate the situation for the Russian fuel industry, which is forced to spend increasing resources on emergency repairs and compensations to contain domestic prices.
3. Russia continues to lose income from the export of oil products amid systematic strikes on energy infrastructure.
– In April, the sea export of Russian oil products decreased by 9.8% compared to March and by 17% year-on-year, reaching 7.77 million tons.
– The main reason was Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and port infrastructure. The attacks caused disruptions at Russian refineries and limited the capability for fuel transfer through maritime terminals.
– This year, Ukraine has effectively doubled the scale of strikes on Russian refineries. While during the same period in 2025, eight refineries were affected, in 2026, it was already 16.
– According to the agency’s calculations, since the beginning of the year, the strikes have rendered about 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity out of service, and overall, 35 primary processing units with a total capacity of 2.85 million barrels per day were halted due to damage or related disruptions.
– Among the most affected are the refineries in Kirishi, Nizhny Novgorod, Perm, and Tuapse. In March alone, the volume of halted capacities exceeded 1 million barrels per day. The Baltic ports suffered especially strong blows.
– Following attacks on Primorsk and Ust-Luga, petroleum product exports through the Baltic fell by 31.4% in a month to 3.32 million tons. Russia was forced to redirect some flows to the Black Sea ports, but this only partially offset the losses.
– The International Energy Agency also recorded a deterioration in production: in April, Russia reduced crude oil production by 460,000 barrels per day year-on-year, to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day.
– According to the IEA, oil product exports fell to 2.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level in recorded history. For the Kremlin, this means a double blow: a reduction in foreign exchange earnings from exports and simultaneous increases in costs for emergency repairs, compensation to oil companies, and stabilization of the domestic fuel market.
4. After tax hikes, over 200,000 small businesses closed in Russia in three months.
– In the first quarter of 2026, over 209,000 small and medium-sized businesses closed in Russia, 9% more than the previous year. The strongest reductions affected cafes, beauty salons, local clothing stores, and small retail businesses.
– Entrepreneurs are unable to withstand the combination of several factors: high interest rates, declining consumer demand, inflation, and increased tax pressure. The expansion of VAT payment hit small businesses particularly hard. From the beginning of the year, companies with a turnover of 20–60 million rubles were forced to transition to new tax rules, which for many, was a critical blow to profitability.
– The consequences are already impacting Russia’s budget. While in 2024, the small and medium business sector contributed about 11 trillion rubles in taxes, in the first quarter of 2026, revenue dropped by more than 22%.
– The wave of closures is only gaining momentum. Large chains, which have liquidity reserves and access to credit, are replacing independent cafes, stores, and services.
– As a result, the Russian market is becoming less competitive, prices continue to rise, and the regional economy is losing jobs and income sources.
5. The price of Russian Urals oil in May reached its highest level since October 2023, temporarily increasing the Kremlin’s oil revenues.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance will calculate May taxes for oil companies based on the average price of Urals at $94.87 per barrel. In rubles, this is almost 7300 rubles per barrel — 18% more than a month ago and 60% higher than last year.
– The sharp increase in the price of Russian oil is a direct result of the war around Iran and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, Moscow received a short-term influx of petrodollars and even managed to replenish the reserve fund and delay the reduction of part of the budget expenditures.
– However, even the sharp rise in prices does not solve the key problems of the Russian economy. The strong ruble effectively eats up part of the additional income: due to the central bank’s high rate, declining imports, and massive currency sales by exporters, the Russian currency has strengthened to a maximum since February 2023.
– This means the Kremlin receives fewer rubles from each export barrel. Moreover, a significant portion of the additional oil revenues is already used to patch up the effects of the strikes on Russian oil refining.
– Due to rising global fuel prices and refinery issues, the state paid oil companies a record 359 billion rubles in April alone as compensation to curb domestic gasoline prices.
6. Russian big business is entering a phase of systemic weakening: sanctions, expensive loans, and tax increases simultaneously hit key sectors of the economy.
– By the end of 2025, three-quarters of the largest Russian companies faced a decline in revenue, profit, or became unprofitable.
– The 28 largest enterprises in Russia lost 8.6 trillion rubles in revenue, and their net profit fell by 30.8% — a loss of 1.9 trillion.
– “Sovcomflot,” servicing the “shadow fleet” of Russian oil exports, lost $648 million due to rising costs and the risks of circumventing sanctions.
– The profit of Russian Railways fell 22-fold, and Aeroflot’s by 65%.
– Russian business is shifting from a development mode to a survival mode: companies are cutting investments and abandoning long-term projects.
– The crisis affects key budget sectors of Russia, so even high oil prices no longer cover the structural problems of the economy.
7. The Russian economy is beginning to lose investment and is entering a phase of prolonged exhaustion.
– In 2025, investments in fixed capital in Russia fell by 2.3% — the first time in the last five years. The main reasons are sanctions, lack of Western money, and the exhaustion of the “war economy” model that the Kremlin supported with budget injections.
– While military expenditures still support certain sectors, the civilian sector is rapidly deteriorating. Businesses are reluctant to invest in long-term projects due to high risks, new taxes, and fears of nationalization. The lack of investment is already affecting infrastructure.
– Projects in housing and utilities, energy, and transport are frozen in Russia, meaning further aging of networks, more accidents, and deterioration in service quality.
– At the same time, wages in civilian sectors are increasingly lagging behind inflation, and hidden unemployment is rising. Effectively, the Russian economy is shifting from short “war growth” to prolonged stagnation and gradual exhaustion.
8. Premiums on Russian ESPO Blend oil for China have begun to decline due to weak demand and deteriorating profitability of Chinese refineries.
– Shipments for delivery in June–July are already being sold with a premium of $4–5 per barrel to Brent, compared to $6–7 a month ago. China and India remain the main buyers of Russian oil, so any cooling in demand immediately impacts the Kremlin’s oil revenues.
– After a price surge due to the conflict around Iran, Asian refineries have faced a margin drop and begun cutting processing. Some independent plants in China’s Shandong province are already reducing production or undergoing maintenance.
– Additional pressure is also coming from weakening demand for Russian oil in India, where refineries are preparing to cut purchases if full U.S. sanctions are reinstated.
– As a result, Moscow is increasingly dependent on the unstable Asian market conditions and the military situation in the Middle East. Russia is still maintaining high export volumes of ESPO Blend — over 1 million barrels per day.
– Yet, even with consistent supplies, the reduction in premiums indicates a gradual worsening of the sales conditions for Russian oil and a decrease in potential budget revenues.
9. India has appealed to the US to extend the exemption from sanctions for purchasing Russian oil, as the war in the Persian Gulf continues to destabilize the global energy market.
– Delhi warns Washington that energy supply issues are becoming increasingly severe, and oil price volatility is already creating risks for India’s domestic market. The US first allowed transactions with Russian oil in March as a temporary exemption due to the Middle East crisis, then extended the permission until May 16.
– Now India is trying to secure a new extension, as hostilities in the region have been ongoing for nearly 11 weeks and continue to pressure global oil and LNG supplies.
– According to Indian officials, the situation is already affecting domestic consumption: part of the population is facing a shortage of gas for cooking.
– Without US exemptions, Russian oil risks quickly losing part of its largest buyers, and India is already concurrently seeking alternative supplies in Africa, the US, and Azerbaijan.
