Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and the entire modern civilization!
- Trump’s desperate attempts to stay afloat
- New Yalta or new Munich?
▶ The 47th president says something on TV shows every day either near the White House or in the Oval Office, writes several dozen tweets, speaks at rallies of his supporters in “red” states.
Of course, one can discuss his words and tweets. But such discussion is an emotional outlet, an adrenaline rush, yet not a process of finding answers to pressing questions. The 47th repeats himself. Everything he said today, yesterday, and the day before he has already said before. He goes in circles, and nothing new can be found in his words.
His limited vocabulary and inability to formulate any real judgments prevent him from speaking otherwise than in slogan-phrases, repeating the same expressions, like the invitations from the CPSU to May 1st or November 7th. His phrases relate to reality about as much as those invitations do.
Depending on whether he wants to throw some lie “to the masses” to distract not-so-keen listeners or readers from reality, to share his stream of consciousness, or to proclaim some meaningless slogan, he draws out the corresponding clichés – stamps. “Zelensky should have made a deal long ago.” “Crook Biden gave Ukraine $350 billion.” “I have great relations with Putin.” “Putin wants to make a deal.” “Zelensky does not want to make a deal.” “I have great relations with Xi.” “Iran is crushed.” “We own the Strait of Hormuz.” “The golden age of America has begun.” “The European Union was created to ride on us.” “We are getting huge money, trillions.” “Opportunities for business projects in Russia are limitless.” “It’s good, not bad, to have good relations with Russia.” “The Democrats want to fill our streets with rapists and murderers.”
What’s new in all this? Absolutely nothing.
Trump is very concerned that elections in the US are in two weeks. He couldn’t disrupt them. In fact, the elections are already underway, 11.5 million Americans from 41 states have already voted early and by mail. Early voting will begin in several more states over the weekend. Each day, more and more people will be voting.
Trump is well aware that the Republican Party is heading towards defeat in the House of Representatives elections. He understands the implications for him. He faces investigations in the new House into his unprecedented corruption in American history (including his corrupt dealings with Putin), violations of the law by him and his associates, and the circumstances of his decision to go to war with Iran. He clings like a drowning man to anything that might help change the thinking of average voters before the elections.
The “diesel deal” he presented didn’t help. Naturally, fuel prices did not drop by a cent. He is frantically pressuring Ukraine, trying to force it to capitulate, hoping it will allow him to showcase to his voters his “victory”—promised to end the war and ended it. He doesn’t realize that these frantic efforts will lead nowhere.
He obviously received a promise from Putin to help him reach an agreement with Iran (which, if achieved, would indeed lower oil and petroleum product prices). And Putin apparently told him that in exchange for this, he must force Ukraine to agree to capitulation.
It’s clear that Putin won’t help him with Iran. And why should he? High oil prices and the weakening of the USA suit him fine.
He dreams of acquiring Lukoil’s foreign assets through his favorite scheme: his Middle Eastern partners pay the money, he receives large dividends, and he can do something to help his partners. But here too, Putin most likely set a condition: you will get Lukoil’s foreign assets if you help force Ukraine to capitulate.
He has already drawn up a scheme for a similar consortium for selling Russian gas and oil to Europe.
Trump is in a hurry. He needs to try to achieve all this before the elections because after the elections, if the Republicans lose even just the House of Representatives, he won’t be able to do anything.
He will be busy fighting the election results and fighting Congress. With the 120th Congress, which will be elected on November 3, and with the current Congress.
Even in the current 119th Congress, which will work until January 3, 2027, he will face opposition from Republicans who will lose their re-election.
He is demanding that Congress allocate him $350 billion immediately after it resumes work following the elections to cover the costs of the war with Iran. Already, five Republican congressmen have declared that they will not vote for this if Trump does not reverse his course on supporting Putin and pressuring Ukraine by 180 degrees. These five “dissidents,” together with all the Democrats, are enough to prevent Trump from getting the money.
He needs the current Congress to pass the budget since there is currently a temporary budget in effect until December 11. It will again be very difficult for him to push through what he wants with the current Congress.
If the Democrats win the elections even just in the House of Representatives, both Putin and Xi will treat him differently. Not as a U.S. President with great power, but as a “lame duck,” as they call U.S. presidents finishing their term and having lost influence even within their own party. Because in this case, he will indeed be very politically weak—tied up with investigations into his corruption and the inability to advance any legislation he needs. And if his party loses even just in the House of Representatives, it will be in search of a new leader, as otherwise, it will have no prospects in the 2028 presidential elections. If the Democrats hold the majority in both chambers of Congress, bills will be passed contrary to his wishes, including aid to Ukraine, voted with a sufficient majority to overcome his possible veto.
Therefore, until November 3, he will continue his daily slogan-statements, and we will hear a lot more from him. He will continue to try to get Ukraine to agree to capitulation.
One thing is clear. He will not be able to achieve anything he has aimed for by November 3. Unless Putin suddenly agrees to give him $20 billion in “Lukoil” assets. But Putin will most likely continue to keep him on a short leash, dangling “business projects with unlimited opportunities” in front of his nose.
▶ Another recent piece of news is more worrying. This is Putin’s proposal to hold a meeting with Trump and Xi during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China to resolve the “Ukrainian issue.”
Someone compared Putin’s proposal to a “new Yalta.” It seems that such a comparison is mistaken. In Livadia (actually there, not in Yalta), Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill indeed divided Europe as victors of World War II. They negotiated where their troops would meet and stop, which countries would fall under whose control at the end of the war. Of course, Roosevelt and Churchill understood that they were giving Central Europe to Stalin. But they considered it an acceptable price at the time for the defeat of Nazism and for the countries of Western Europe to become part of a unified, free, new liberal-democratic civilization.
Putin’s proposal is reminiscent not of “Yalta,” but of Munich in 1938, where Chamberlain and Daladier decided to sacrifice Czechoslovakia to “appease” Hitler. The annexation of the Sudetenland, and the withdrawal of Czechoslovak troops from this well-fortified area, led just six months later, in March 1939, to the disappearance of Czechoslovakia—Czechia being completely occupied by Nazis, and a puppet state being created in Slovakia. Another five and a half months later, full-scale World War II began.
Putin doesn’t need Donbas or Crimea. He needs there to be no Ukraine at all. Just as Hitler didn’t need the Sudetenland, but wanted there to be no Czechoslovakia.
Judging by Xi’s lack of clear reaction to Putin’s proposal, he has not yet decided if a “trilateral” meeting is necessary.
Judging by Trump’s reaction (that the meeting might happen, but the topic should be “denuclearization”), his entourage might be dissuading him from such a meeting. It is clear that neither Putin nor Xi is interested in talking about denuclearization. And Trump threw out this topic simply to say something “perpendicular” to Putin’s proposal. This leads to the conclusion that Trump’s entourage advised against agreeing to such a meeting with Putin’s proposed agenda. I don’t know if, for example, Rubio understands that Putin’s proposed agenda is a path to a large-scale third world war, that Trump will look weak, and if his hypothetical decision to “surrender” Ukraine is rejected by both Ukraine and Europe, then not just weak but humiliated. Most likely, he understands.
Whether Trump will have the desire and inclination closer to November 18 to fly to China, or whether he will be fighting the election results and the current Congress, will be revealed in the near future.
Until the end of the story called “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book published in 2018), there are 823 days left.
American friends, vote in the elections: by mail, early, on election day. Remember that the fate of the USA, the fate of Ukraine, and the fate of the whole world depends on your votes.
Remember that the agenda of each chamber of Congress and its committees is entirely determined by the party that has the majority in the chamber.
Thank you to everyone who read. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. On whether we fight evil, do Good, remain merely observers, wait passively and believe that someone somewhere will decide something for us, or fight evil and do everything possible for Good to prevail.
We must not allow evil to win. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I hug and love you all. Take care of each other, I ask you very much.
Ukraine is and will always be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. And this is inevitable.
