The world is accelerating. Events are increasingly developing not in a straight line but by leaps. What seemed impossible yesterday, may become the new reality tomorrow.
This is especially evident on the eve of the American midterm elections and a harsh military winter.
Let’s look at how many different processes are happening simultaneously.
In the USA, pressure on Ukraine is increasing from part of MAGA. There are calls for the need to change the Ukrainian leadership. Economic concessions to Russia are being presented as a tool for achieving peace.
But at the same time, the opposite approach is being advanced in Congress – strengthening sanctions against Russian energy resources. Influential Republicans insist that peace is achieved by force, not by rewarding the aggressor.
And sociology published by American media shows that even loud economic decisions do not guarantee Republicans a shift in public sentiment.
Tensions are rising in Europe. Polish law enforcement reports threats to the state leadership. And this is against the backdrop of Russian sabotage, provocations, and attempts to destabilize European countries.
In the field of technology, there is its own race. American defense companies are presenting new generations of missile defense systems. Military-technical progress creates opportunities that didn’t exist until recently.
And Ukraine continues to strike at the Russian military economy, refineries, fuel infrastructure, logistics, digital infrastructure objects – all of this is increasingly affecting Russia’s ability to wage war.
The information space is already discussing the possible impact of these strikes on Russian information operation infrastructure. How significant it is remains to be seen.
All these processes are interconnected. But none of them guarantees us the desired result.
This is the main danger: Ukraine may not only suffer from unfavorable changes but also miss the opportunities that arise simultaneously with them.
What to do?
Firstly, urgently consolidate all allies who understand that concessions to Putin only increase the cost of future war. In the USA, work with both the administration and Congress, both parties, states, and the defense industry. In Europe, translate political support into specific decisions on weapons, funding, and sanctions. And restore trust by finally fulfilling obligations under the Kachka-Kos anti-corruption list.
Secondly, have a plan B in case American pressure takes the form of actual restrictions for Ukraine. Intelligence, satellite communications, critical technologies, arms supplies – alternatives are needed for each dependency. And they must be prepared before the crisis, not after.
Thirdly, enhance our own strength. More resources for the Armed Forces, more domestic production, more long-range strike capabilities, better protection for Ukrainian communities and energy.
Fourthly, reclaim strategic initiative in diplomacy. Do not wait for another plan to be proposed to Ukraine, but form coalitions and decisions that make continuing the war unprofitable for Russia.
And finally, stop spending energy on internal political warfare where joint state work is needed. In February 2022, Ukrainian political forces already showed they could work together in the face of a threat to the state’s existence.
Today, threats once again demand responsibility at this level.
We cannot control American elections. We cannot command European governments to act faster. We cannot foresee every twist in world politics.
But we can prepare for different scenarios. We can strengthen ourselves. We can create opportunities, not just wait for them.
In a nonlinear world, victory goes not to those who best predict the future, but to those who are prepared to exploit its turns.
And it is very important not to miss the moment.
