Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and all modern civilization!
- Pre-election scenarios
▶ On Sunday at 10:16 AM, the 47th president published the following tweet on his social network:
“From this moment, an ‘ENERGY CEASEFIRE’ in the war between Russia and Ukraine is implemented. Both sides have agreed to this. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
This tweet is most likely another pre-election bluff by the president, deliberately released in an attempt to force traders to lower the price of oil when trading opens on Monday.
He absolutely needs prices at American gas stations to decrease. So he can proclaim how he cares for Americans.
▶ In 23 days, on November 3, 2026, elections will be held in the USA, which are crucial for the country. The entire House of Representatives, 35 out of 100 senators, and 36 state governors will be re-elected.
The importance of these elections cannot be overstated.
A victory for the Republican Party would mean that within the next two years, a right-wing authoritarian regime would be established in the USA, laws ‘legalizing’ lawlessness would be enacted, securing unchangeable power for the Republican Party, precisely in accordance with the ‘Project 2025’, the programmatic document with which the Republicans ran in the 2024 elections and are now implementing. Their victory in these elections will finally break the system of checks and balances, ensuring the omnipotence of the executive branch.
The victory of the Democratic Party even in the House of Representatives elections will make it impossible to pass laws that “legitimize” lawlessness, ensure a parliamentary investigation into all violations of laws by the president and his cabinet members, investigate unprecedented corruption in U.S. history, followed by impeachments of cabinet members, and very likely of the president himself.
The victory of the Democratic Party in the elections for both chambers of Congress will block the movement towards authoritarianism in the U.S. and make Congress a very strong counterbalance to the executive branch. A Senate with a hypothetical Democratic majority will not allow the appointment of ministers like Secretary of Defense Hegseth, prosecutors like Attorney General Blanch, and will not confirm judges who cannot answer questions about who won the 2020 presidential election, and whether the participants in the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack deserved pardons.
The victory of the Democrats in the elections for both chambers will allow for the adoption of laws that can compel the executive branch to do what it does not want and prohibit it from doing what it would like, but what contradicts the real interests of the country.
The victory of the Democrats in the elections for both chambers would show Republicans that they need to search for a new leader and a new ideology.
So what are the current standings?
The average of 12 polls conducted by various sociological services over the past month (data published on the realclearpolling site) shows that 49.8% of voters are going to vote for Democrats, 41.9% for Republicans, and the remaining almost 8% are undecided.
A gap of 7.9% is a very large gap for the U.S. In the country, there are approximately 240 million voters. Assuming that only 60% of voters participate in the elections, that is 144 million, then 7.9% is 11.37 million votes. Elections are held in majoritarian districts, and in several states, Republicans have redrawn their boundaries in their favor, but with such a gap in favor of the Democrats, their victory in the House of Representatives elections is the most likely outcome.
If someone had asked me a year ago whether Democrats could win the Senate elections, I would have firmly said “no.” Because for this, Democrats would have had to take seats from Republicans in “red,” Republican states that Republicans have held for decades. And Democrats need to take 4 seats from Republicans without losing any themselves to win the Senate elections. A year ago, imagining this could happen was entirely impossible.
However, Trump’s policies and the Republicans who support him in everything have made what seemed impossible a year ago a reality today.
The president is record-breakingly unpopular among voters. His rating in all polls is the lowest among all second-term presidents. He is supported by no more than one-third of voters.
The president and the Republican Party have not fulfilled the campaign promises they made in 2024—to lower prices at gas stations and supermarkets, and ensure a high quality of life. Today’s reality is the opposite—prices have risen. Gasoline costs 50% more than it did before the elections two years ago, diesel 75% more. As for prices in supermarkets, for electricity, plane tickets (which are very important for Americans), there’s no need to even mention. Everything costs much more than two years ago. Due to Trump’s trade wars and his conflict with Iran, which became the biggest strategic failure in decades. More than a million Americans lost their health insurance in 2026, and most of the rest have to pay more for their insurance than a year ago.
And therefore, if we look at the polls in the states holding Senate elections, we’ll see that today Democrats have very real chances of winning. I’m not claiming that Democrats will win. We won’t know who won until at least the late evening of November 3rd. But they have a very real chance, which didn’t exist even a few months ago.
North Carolina
The Republican Senator Tillis refused to run for re-election. The former governor of the state, Democrat Roy Cooper, leads in polls against his Republican rival Watley, a Trump nominee, by 7-10%, according to various surveys. Republicans have practically resigned themselves to losing this Senate seat. They have stopped investing money from their centralized funds in TV advertising in this state.
Texas
Democratic candidate James Talarico leads his Republican opponent Paxton, a Trump nominee, by 2-4% in most polls. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988. Texas, the second most populous state in the country, has become the main “red,” Republican state, their stronghold, and the basis of their electoral votes in presidential elections. Losing Texas for the Republicans, turning it into a swing state, would be a real collapse for them.
Maine
The only “blue,” democratic state with a Republican senator is Susan Collins, who has been elected to the Senate six times. According to most polls, her opponent, Democrat Troy Jackson, is ahead by 2-4%.
Ohio
A red state where its former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown has run against the governor-appointed Republican Husted, who replaced Vice President Vance. According to most polls, Brown is ahead by 1-4%. Republicans are currently investing heavily in television and social media advertising in Ohio.
Kansas
An absolutely “red,” Republican state, a stronghold of conservatism. The last time a Democrat won a Senate election here was 94 years ago, in 1932.
Currently, Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall are neck and neck. Some polls show Hamilton ahead by 1-2%, others show Marshall leading. The idea that Democrats could hope for a victory in Kansas was unimaginable even six months ago. Farmers’ dissatisfaction with Trump and the results of his policies have made a difference.
Iowa
Similar to Kansas. Farmers, who make up the majority of the state’s electorate, are dissatisfied with Trump’s policies, suffering losses and having to spend more while earning less. The chances of Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are currently equal. 50 to 50.
Alaska
Former Congresswoman Democrat Mary Peltola is leading by 1-3% over the incumbent Republican Senator Sullivan, according to most polls. Even if this is within the margin of error and other polls show Sullivan leading Peltola by the same margin, the chances are 50 to 50.
In these seven states, Democrats have very real chances. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor these states.
As mentioned earlier, Democrats need to take 4 seats from Republicans in the Senate without losing any themselves. The only problematic state for Democrats in this sense is Michigan, where a majority of Democrats took a risk by nominating left-wing party representative Abdul El-Sayed to replace the retiring Democrat Peters. This is a risky choice in a swing state. But El-Sayed currently leads his Republican opponent Rogers by 1-4% in most polls.
We’ll return to the election topic in two weeks. Let’s see what changes during this time.
Autumn in the US will be very heated. Because in case of a Democratic victory in the elections, we will almost inevitably see a repeat of what we saw in the fall and early winter of 2020 – the fierce struggle of the 47th president to overturn the election results.
Next Saturday, October 17, another nationwide protest action “No to Kings” will take place across America, in all 50 states.
832 days remain until the end of the story titled “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book, published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight against evil, do Good, remain mere observers, wait passively and believe that someone somewhere will decide something for us, or fight against evil and do everything possible to ensure Good prevails.
We must not let evil prevail. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other, I implore you.
Ukraine is and will always be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. This is certain.
