On the evening of March 23 and throughout the night of March 24, the Russians launched another massive combined strike. Entirely expected and predicted considering the systematic nature – once a week.
This time, however, there was a 48-hour delay, as according to their schedule it should have occurred on the night of the 21st or 22nd, but there was a delay. The reasons might be of a preparatory nature.
Overall, the strike can hardly be called massive. The enemy employed the following terror tools on the night of March 24:
- 392 Shahed-136/BM-35 “Italmas” kamikaze drones and “Herbera”/”Parody” decoys, 365 of which were shot down, or about 93% of the total number of drones used by the enemy.
- 9M723/KN-23/5V55 – 7 ballistic missiles, 0 of which were shot down;
- Kh-101 – 18, all 18 were shot down;
- 9M727/728 Iskander-K – 5/5;
- Kh-31P – 1/0;
- Kh-59/69 – 3/2.
Thus, during this night, the enemy used 34 missiles of various modifications, with interception issues traditionally caused by ballistic targets, which mainly hit Zaporizhzhia and Poltava.
The massive strike began with a drone raid on Odesa and the Odesa region (a total of over 30 drones), which was also accompanied by launches of Kh-31P and Kh-59/69 missiles around 20:00.
Kh-101 missile launches were likely conducted from 5 TU-95MS aircraft and 2 TU-160 aircraft, again indicating an underload of each aircraft by more than 50% and the use of expensive and unique TU-160s, due to the lack of a sufficient number of combat-ready TU-95MS.
It should also be noted that since March 16, the Russians used 9M723 ballistic missiles for the first time. Until recently, ballistic missiles were the priority tool of terror, and in January 2026, a record was set with their use – 91 missiles, which was already surpassed in February – 121 missiles, but from the second half of March, ballistics have been used by the occupiers in minimal quantities.
Could this be the effect of the “Holy Fire” descending on the Votkinsk Plant and Silicon El?
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Russia ran out of ballistic missiles, if only because they have stocks of this ammunition. For example, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of December 2025, Russia had a stock of 9M723 missiles slightly more than 200 units.
Thus, producing at least 60 missiles per month, Russia could have made at least 180 9M723 missiles by December 2025, January, and February 2026. In turn, in December 2025, the Russians launched 57 ballistic strikes on Ukraine, in January 2026 – 91, in February – 121, totaling 269. In incomplete March, slightly over 40, or 309 in total.
These figures clearly indicate a rapid decrease in the stockpile of 9M723 ballistic missiles, especially if one assumes that the strikes on the Votkinsk plant and Silikon El have had an irreparable impact on the production of this category of missiles.
I think the next combined missile strike can be expected from the enemy within a week, by the end of the month, but I won’t be surprised if the range changes slightly, with 3M14 used instead of X-101, although the overall number of means of terror used won’t undergo significant changes.
I was surprised in the morning why there were no Zircons in the combined salvo? Why wasn’t the entire salvo of X-101 missiles? They definitely raised the Tu-160, but the launches were only from the Tu-95MS, or at most one Tu-160. Again, there weren’t 500 Shaheds. As the classic said, these questions are tiring.
It’s clear why they continued the launch of the Shaheds during the day — our MVG and aircraft pilots went to sleep after the night. Once again, they recorded 100% interception of 18 airborne and 5 ground-based cruise Iskanders. 93% of Shaheds were intercepted — 365/392.
Our problem has always been with intercepting ballistic missiles (that’s what they were created for, and even the UAE’s missile defense suffers from them with THAAD) and hypersonic missiles — Kinzhals and Zircons. If the first are no longer around because the MiG-31K resources need to be conserved, the Zircons have skillfully begun to penetrate our missile defense this winter.
And if we have few PAC-3 missiles for the Patriots, and we are completely dependent on them from our partners, we need to create another countermeasure against such missiles. And today the GRU showed it 🙂 .
This is a special military operation against ground-based Zircons. Yes, the Zircon was initially a sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missile. But our struggle showed that all CRUISERS are intercepted at 100%, ballistics with a range of 500 km are visible from “space” and preparations can be made. But what to do when hypersonic Zircons from Crimea fly at a 40-kilometer altitude and reach Kyiv in a matter of minutes? PAC-3 interceptors have already intercepted Zircons, but it’s already a matter of luck and proper radar and launcher placement (here, of course, experience and analysis come into play).
In the Main Intelligence Directorate, they analyzed previous Zircon attacks and determined approximate launch areas. By 20:00, everyone knew that the strategic aviation controllers had activated combat frequencies. Even by noon, there was information about how many Iskander-M ballistic missiles would be involved. Intelligence is working and impressing. Main Intelligence Directorate drones began checking launch areas and access routes at night. They harassed air defenses so that the necessary number of aircraft could reach their targets for destruction at the right moment.
If you’re wondering why scare the enemy with drones over Crimea, risking the operation’s success, scaring off the enemy is also one of the operation’s goals. If there was no launch, that’s also a win. Completely destroying one launcher and targeting another is definitely a win-win situation.
And in the video, you see there are THREE launchers! The country of filth constantly launched two missiles, meaning one launcher. At most, there were four missiles, meaning two launchers. But here there could have been an absolute record – 6 Zircons towards Ukraine! Such a number we definitely couldn’t intercept…
It also pleases me to know that Zircons are still being launched from Bastion launch complexes. It is intended for the Onyx anti-ship missile, which is worse than the Zircon. And it’s comforting that we now know exactly which launcher the Zircon uses. And the TPC (transport-launch container – Ed.), meaning it goes in their fleet’s universal TPC called ZS14. From this TPC, they launch Calibers, Onyxes, and Zircons from ships. And today we saw that in the Bastion, they place the TPC with the Zircon and launch it calmly towards Ukraine. They used to launch, to be exact 😉.
After such a daring operation to destroy ground launchers, they won’t make the next salvo soon. And now specialists are checking the roads – where these launchers are hiding. They now need to change their base locations, hide them, and alter the logistics of transporting the missiles… Lot of work now for them. And it’s a bit safer for us.
Remembered about the Tu-160. It’s not the first time they can’t launch properly. Issues on the ground, engine problems, or something else 🙂.
It has been 10 days since the last major strike on Ukraine. Both then and now, the salvo included just 7 ballistic missiles. And they’re not even pure “Iskanders”, they have to mix launches with old S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on ground targets.
What’s the matter, brothers? It turned out that a 30-meter hole in the assembly shop roof is not just ventilation, but also burnt CNC machines, overhead cranes, and test stands? Those same expensive ones, practically irreplaceable under sanctions?
Or did you suddenly find out that Iran supplied not only parts for “Shaheds” but also critical electronics with military chemistry for ballistic production to the marshlands? And it provided not so much unique technologies but rather its physical capacities and well-worn gray import channels.
I think we hit bingo—both things. The math with “thousands of Shaheds” and “hundreds of Iskanders a month” no longer adds up. The production line choked.
Meanwhile, “Meduza” seriously reports that the U.S. plan failed, but Iran’s plan is working. Well, if Tehran’s brilliant plan was to keep burying and urgently re-electing ayatollahs and intelligence chiefs until the Americans run out of bombs, then yes, it’s a plan as reliable as Swiss watches.
When my little one asks me to show her what absolute rock bottom looks like, I just open up journalism from the “good Russians” 😆.
