The end of transatlanticism has come, and we need a new religion
Four decades ago, I covered religious affairs. I found that, off the record, church leaders were much less dogmatic than in public. Protestant biblical preachers who advocated for the literalism of the Scriptures secretly agreed that complex passages required “interpretation.” Roman Catholic priests called church rules on celibacy and male priesthood outdated. Most considered their religion’s doctrinal differences with others trivial compared to the real threats of secularism and (even worse) apathy.
But expressing such thoughts aloud would mean offending the faithful and undermining the entire organized system of religion. And what then?
The Munich Security Conference also has a quasi-religious dimension, with a similar discrepancy between public confession and private vision of reality.
The transatlantic gathering in the Bavarian capital is the most important event on the security-clerical calendar. Indeed, behind the scenes, many valuable meetings take place, including a large assembly of intelligence leaders. Historical events occur on the main stage, such as last year’s polemical attack by US Vice President J.D. Vance on European decadence. Organizers skillfully juggle the time, locations, and egos of the participants.
However, the most important feature of the conference is the empty talk. This year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured of American loyalty and commitment to Europe, but no one believed him. Most religious beliefs are based on the principle: deeds, not words. Rubio missed a meeting on Ukraine (the most important issue for European allies). Instead, he found time to visit Hungary and Slovakia and praise their pro-Kremlin autocratic political leaders. NATO-friendly American Republicans were unable to attend the meeting because Speaker Mike Johnson at the last minute canceled the House of Representatives delegation.
Some European high-ranking officials commented actively. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Rubio’s speech was “very reassuring.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that it was completely normal for Rubio to miss the meeting on Ukraine. But no one believed them either.
As transatlantic faith weakens, other preachers speak up. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a devastating speech at another major international meeting in Davos, urging middle countries to cooperate. President Emmanuel Macron stated in Munich that Europe must step up its efforts to become a “geopolitical power.” His German counterpart Friedrich Merz said the US claims to global leadership “were called into question and perhaps wasted” during Trump’s presidency, but it was time to rebuild transatlantic trust. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer once again promised that the United Kingdom would be at the center of European security.
But ambitious declarations of a new religion are no better than empty talk of the vanished one. The British armed forces are practically only a shadow of the potential laid out on paper. Macron struggles to govern France, let alone lead a revival of European security. Of course, Germany has enough economic influence to make a difference. But its security culture lags by decades (as highlighted in a recent war game where decision-makers in Berlin hesitated while Lithuania faced occupation).
It’s unlikely anyone believes that the German government has the geopolitical power to confront Russia and compete with China! Even Noah’s Ark seems a better option.
The problem is not in words but in actions. European security needs effective institutions to swiftly and decisively focus on defense and deterrence decisions, with all the complex compromises involved. Every country must take risks and make sacrifices, both domestically and externally, for collective security. Frankly, the question is: will you go to war to protect another country? In the past, the United States, as the hegemon of European security, made and implemented these decisions on our behalf. Now those times seem as distant as the power of the medieval papacy. It’s time for a new Reformation.
Edward Lucas is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He was previously a senior editor at The Economist. Lucas has covered Central and Eastern Europe since 1986. A long-time foreign correspondent in Berlin, Vienna, Moscow, and the Baltic states, he is an internationally recognized expert on espionage, subversion, the use and abuse of history, energy security, and information warfare.
Photo: European Parliament
