Information on the current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 26.10.2026.
1. Ukraine continues attacks on enterprises related to Russia’s military-industrial complex.
– On October 25, Ukrainian forces attacked the chemical-metallurgical enterprise “Avisma” in the city of Berezniki, Perm region, with drones — a site of the corporation “VSMPO-Avisma,” the largest titanium producer in the world. It produces titanium sponge, metallic magnesium, and alloys based on it. This production is used in the manufacture of military aircraft, jet engines, missile, and space technology. The corporation “VSMPO-Avisma” is one of the key suppliers of titanium for the Russian military-industrial complex.
– On the same day, Ukrainian forces struck the industrial zone in Yelets, Lipetsk region, where the “Energia” plant is located. The strike involved Storm Shadow cruise missiles, with at least two hits on two buildings. The plant supplies components for Russian missile systems, including “Iskander-K,” “Iskander-M,” “Zircon,” “Kinzhal,” and “Pantsir,” as well as for aviation munitions. The plant is under sanctions from Ukraine, the USA, the EU, and other countries. This is at least the sixth known attack on the enterprise since May 2025.
2. On the night of October 26, Ukrainian drones massively attacked Voronezh.
– One of the targets of the attack was the Voronezh Joint Aircraft Manufacturing Company (VASO), which is part of the United Aircraft Corporation of Russia and specializes in the production of aviation equipment. The enterprise holds strategic significance for Russia’s aircraft manufacturing sector.
– Also, according to a monitoring channel, the Northern Bridge, which connects the Central and Railway districts of the city, was hit.
3. India is reducing purchases of Russian oil due to cheaper supplies from the Persian Gulf.
– Indian refineries are increasingly opting for oil from the Gulf countries instead of Russian oil due to the sharp rise in maritime transport costs. Long delivery from Russia is becoming economically unviable, while Middle Eastern suppliers offer discounts that offset high transportation costs.
– Certain batches of Iraqi oil are sold at a discount of over $25 per barrel to the benchmark Dubai price, even before delivery costs. After including freight, this allows oil to be obtained at a discount of up to several dollars per barrel compared to the benchmark Dated Brent price. In contrast, Russian oil is offered at approximately $2 per barrel above the benchmark price, making it less attractive for Indian buyers.
– Discounts are offered not only by Iraqi suppliers. The trading division of Saudi Aramco sold Khafji oil at a discount of up to $10 per barrel to Dubai, and Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC sold about 20 million barrels at a very small discount.
– Supplies from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels, while Russian shipments are shrinking. The state-owned Indian company Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has significantly reduced its purchases of Russian oil. According to its CFO, Vetsa Ramakrishina Gupta, in November, supplies from Gulf countries exceeded Russian ones as they proved to be more cost-effective. Purchases of Russian raw materials have also been reduced by Indian Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals.
– India remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, but its share in this market is under pressure. Russia is losing the advantage previously provided by discounts on its oil: now cheaper offers from competitors and more expensive freight make supplies from the Gulf more attractive.
4. Russia has fallen from third to fourth place among the world’s largest exporters of thermal coal, mainly used for electricity generation.
– From January to September 2026, Russian companies exported 42.5 million tons, 18.6% less than the same period last year. Meanwhile, South Africa increased shipments by 8% to 52.1 million tons.
– Russian exporters lost the most in the markets of Turkey and China. Turkish buyers reduced purchases by 32%, and Chinese by 26%. In China, cheaper competition from Mongolia is displacing Russian coal, and significant reserves reduce the need for imports. In Turkey, power plants have started to buy less fuel, and rising transportation and insurance costs further complicate supply.
– Supplies to India, on the other hand, increased by 63%, but this did not compensate for the losses in the two large markets. Indian buyers demand significant discounts, and the high cost of delivery reduces the profits of Russian coal companies.
– Russia’s problems are particularly noticeable against the backdrop of a relatively small reduction in global trade in thermal coal: in nine months, it decreased by only 3.2%. Russian exports are falling much faster than the global market.
– Expensive logistics and a loss of demand in key countries weaken the competitiveness of Russian suppliers, and for mines remote from seaports, transportation may make exports unprofitable even if buyers are available.
5. Despite sanctions, Russian oil continues to reach Western markets through third countries.
– Russian oil, despite sanctions, continues to enter Western markets indirectly — in the form of petroleum products produced by enterprises in third countries. In September, refineries in India, Turkey, and Brunei, using Russian raw materials, exported products to countries that imposed sanctions against Russia worth €1 billion.
– The largest buyer was the European Union, receiving petroleum products worth €667 million. Another €168 million went to Australia, €154 million to the USA, and €19 million to New Zealand. It is estimated that about €295 million of the total deliveries were petroleum products directly produced from Russian oil.
– In September, seven shipments of petroleum products from refineries processing Russian raw materials arrived in Europe. Six shipments were sent from India’s Jamnagar complex, and one from Turkey’s Tüpraş İzmit refinery. Three shipments arrived in Italy, two in Romania, and one each in Spain and the Republic of Cyprus.
– The processing of Russian oil in third countries allows its derivatives to continue entering the markets of countries that have sanctioned Russia. In September, the largest part of such deliveries went to the European Union.
6. The five largest defense states in Europe will name Russia as the main security threat to the continent.
– France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom intend to state that Russia poses the most acute and long-term threat to Europe’s security and confirm ongoing support for Ukraine.
– A joint statement is planned to be released after a meeting of defense ministers in Paris on October 26. It addresses Russia’s prolonged war against Ukraine, violations of European airspace, sabotage, and intensified hybrid attacks.
– European governments believe that Moscow is trying to test NATO’s readiness to respond to such actions, weaken support for Ukraine, and create uncertainty about the Alliance’s response.
– The five countries emphasize that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security and strengthen political and military leadership. This involves modernizing armed forces, reinforcing NATO’s collective defense, and expanding the defense capabilities of European allies. Meanwhile, the USA will remain an indispensable partner, and EU defense initiatives should complement, not duplicate, the work of the Alliance.
– The draft statement also reaffirms unwavering support for Ukraine, calling its ability to defend itself now and in the future critically important for the security of the entire Euro-Atlantic space.
– Specific mention is made of countering Russia’s shadow fleet and violations of European airspace. The statement is being prepared amid discussions about the future role of the USA in European security.
– German Chancellor Friedrich Merz previously warned that the threat from Russia is not limited to the war against Ukraine: Moscow also seeks to destabilize European democracies through pressure, interference, and hybrid attacks. He urged Europe to strengthen its defense and reduce dependency on the USA while continuing to assist Ukraine.
7. The administration of US President Donald Trump proposed to former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to run for the position of UN Secretary-General.
– American officials discussed this idea with representatives of other countries and found that Russia and China are likely ready to support it. In Washington, they hope Orbán can secure at least eight votes in the UN Security Council, and potentially ten out of 15. According to an American representative, when the US, Russia, and China support a candidate, they can usually ensure its passage. However, the position of France and the UK, who also have veto power, remains important.
– American officials consider Orbán to be aligned with the conservative MAGA movement due to his speeches against mass migration and liberal public organizations, as well as his criticism of the judiciary and media. At the same time, his candidacy might be acceptable to Moscow, considering Orbán’s long-standing political contacts with the Kremlin and his resistance to sanctions against Russia.
– The American side has already inquired if Orbán is interested in the position. He is reportedly willing to consider the proposal but does not want to run without confidence in victory.
– Meanwhile, these are only preliminary talks: no official nomination has been announced, and the appointment of the UN Secretary-General requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a decision from the General Assembly.
8. Vučić concedes defeat in the early parliamentary elections in Serbia.
– According to preliminary estimates, the victory was claimed by the student opposition movement, which is against corruption and political monopoly of power. For the Kremlin, this is a severe political setback: Moscow risks losing one of its key partners in the Balkans. Preliminary counts suggest the “Students Win” list could secure 135-140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, while Vučić’s coalition around 105.
– According to estimates by Ipsos and CeSID, the student list gained about 52% of votes against 39.3% for Vučić’s political camp. Voter turnout approached 70% — the highest level since the breakup of Yugoslavia.
– Vučić’s defeat weakens the Kremlin’s position, which supported the Serbian politician as one of its partners in Europe. Moscow relied on his policy of balancing between the EU and Russia: Belgrade sought to join the European Union while maintaining close ties with the Kremlin and refusing to join Western sanctions. Putin openly supported Vučić’s intention to return to the position of prime minister.
– The change in power could accelerate Serbia’s reorientation towards Europe, increase pressure to align foreign policy with the EU, and question the privileged positions of Russian business in Serbia’s energy sector.
– A particularly important issue remains the future of the oil company NIS, which is under American sanctions due to Russian ownership control. However, specific decisions regarding sanctions against Russia and energy ties will depend on the new government’s program and actions. The Kremlin has suffered a political defeat in a country it long regarded as a close partner in the Balkans.
– Even if the new government does not impose sanctions against Russia, Vučić’s loss of parliamentary majority weakens Moscow’s position and poses a risk of further reduction of its influence in Europe.
