I have a bad habit, since my teenage years, of keeping a diary. There are things that need to be spoken, but there’s no one to share them with. It was like that then, and it remains so to this day.
On October 9, 2022, I wrote the following words: “In this game called the Russian-Ukrainian war, many cards have already been laid on the table, the deck has thinned, and it’s becoming clear what the players still have in hand. What do Putin and the Russians have left? They have only three cards: a mob invasion, winter, and a nuclear strike.” Four years have passed…
In truth, in their irrational necromancer trek, they consistently use rational logic. After bringing Yanukovych’s puppet gang to power, Putin began implementing the “Belarus+” plan. This “+” is because we had a strong national opposition and 20-30% of the population were not just ready to resist, but ready for active forms of resistance. Therefore, our scenario had to be bloodier.
Everything was prepared for the 2015 elections, when an uprising against the falsification was meant to be drowned in blood. But in 2014, Yanukovych fled despite agreements with the opposition, forcing the Russians to improvise with the “Russian Spring.” Next, they bet on agents, freaks, and useful idiots. To ignite confrontation and seize the majority of Ukraine, taking advantage of the government’s paralysis, like in Crimea in February 2014.
Despite the threat of a public explosion before the elections and burning his own rating, Poroshenko introduced martial law in 2018, deployed the military, and the Russians had to retreat and wait a little.
In 2019, “Irzhi Voskovets” came to power with supporters of the “Liberated Theatre.” Not just to power, but to absolute power at all levels, across practically the entire territory of the state.
“This is our chance!” the Russians exclaimed and set to work, filling the government with useful fools and agents. We received absolute power, breaking all incompetence and kleptocracy records. The Russians needed only to wait for their moment. When Zelensky’s rating fell to three times the level of household soap, they began openly preparing for an attack. In August 2021, it was highly probable, by November it became obvious, and by February inevitable.
However, the trump ace didn’t work. Then came a series of logical tactical restructurings. First, the Russians tried to defeat us using a ten- to twentyfold advantage in conventional warfare means. When that didn’t work, they went for massive assaults. Then, while our generals played with “fortress cities” and ignored “wedding drones,” they bet on “optical fiber” and creating circles of zones in our rear. However, their advancement pace was insufficient for the general plan.
Let’s not think that Ukraine is his final point. The minimum task is a Russian garrison in Berlin and no more NATO or EU. The maximum task is a Union State from Cape Roca in Portugal to Cape Dezhnev in Chukotka.
And now a new challenge – world domination. They are not the first with such an ambition. Throughout human history, there have been irrational people who have craved it above all else. It is natural, though not wise. Typically, such ambitions have ended in full-scale world wars. Why is it that full-scale only applies to us, while the rest of the world experiences it partially and in a hybrid manner?
Imagine that Czechoslovakia, betrayed by allies both from the west (France) and the east (USSR), independently began fighting for the Sudetenland. The Czech army was technically on par with the German one. Their LT-35L (the future Panzer 35(t), Pz-38(t)), despite its fragile armor, was a cut above the most common German Pz-II. Imagine that in response to aggression from Germany, Poland, and Hungary (yes, Poland was an active ally of Hitler until March 1939), Czechoslovakia started its own ATO/OOS. Then, as a result of the Vienna agreements, everything would have transitioned into a semi-peaceful phase. And later, in the still peaceful 1943, the Czechs, fed up with the ‘oligarchs’ war,’ might have established a monolithic government led by Jiří Voskovec and his ‘Liberated Theater.’ In that case, the Third World War would have started only in 1946, becoming full-scale after the fall of Czechoslovakia.
While Ukraine resists the attempt at genocide, the countries of the southeastern Baltic do not face a full-scale invasion, and the Third World War does not commence. This is a postponed apocalypse (V. Portnikov). And as long as the remnants of Western democracies resist tyrannies, the tyrants do not start disputes over the division of the world or throw nuclear charges at each other.
The next step for the Russians is to deprive us of resources for waging war and ‘comfortable’ living in our nation’s territory.
On one hand, they destroy the political systems of our donors. There aren’t many left for us. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary have already fallen away… France will soon (0.7 billion in budget support). The situation is uncertain in Poland and worsening in Germany. Can our biggest donor, the EU, make another consolidated decision to increase its share 2-3 times?..
On the other hand, the Russians are targeting our sources of foreign currency income. Note that exporting companies, especially those with Western investments, are first to be hit. This is to deter foreign investors since we can’t restore these enterprises on our own.
When we run out of money, it won’t be just a matter of survival, but also about having the means to fight. The cheapest FPV drone costs $200-300, which is 2-3 million per day… And what about air defense systems to prevent the Russians from moving from KABs to FABs? That’s why Russians target exporters and our life support systems.
What should we focus on in such a situation? On the fact that Russian exports depend on hydrocarbons (around 54%), metals (up to 18%), agricultural products and fertilizers (up to 10%), chemical raw materials (up to 9%), and precious items (up to 5%). If we stop them from earning foreign currency, we limit their ability to buy necessary weapon components from our ‘allies,’ and if we add strikes on the production of ‘analogues’ to this list, we can significantly reduce their capacity to manufacture weapons and pay for mercenaries.
I understand that everyone wants to please the public with a victory, to destroy some ‘Vkontakte’ data center or something near Moscow. However, we have limited resources, which are rapidly depleting, so targeting anything other than port infrastructure, the hydrocarbon industry, and exclusive defense industry production is shooting ourselves in the foot for the sake of applause.
This war, like any world war, will be lost by the one who runs out of money first. We need strategy, not satisfaction. We are in a worse position, especially considering how Trump tries for Moscow. By the way, he’s been doing this his entire career.
However, there is a tiny chance that the empire of necromancers will fall an hour earlier than we do. Even if it comes after nuclear strikes on our cities. Fewer would die from nuclear strikes than from peace on Russian terms. Pure rationalism.
History does not know the subjunctive mood, but true historical science, like any other science, must be built on “if – then” algorithms. Calculate probabilities or die.
Photo: 93rd Brigade Kholodny Yar
