In response to the question of what exactly Putin hopes for four and a half years into the Russian-Ukrainian war, especially when his troops, expected to capture at least the entire Donetsk region in the initial months after the attack (according to Putin’s plan, they should have captured it back in 2014), continue under sanctions and amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, there is a clear and understandable answer.
Putin hopes for fear.
Trading in fear is a favored political tactic of the Russians; they have been doing it for centuries to mask their own weaknesses and problems. The “Potemkin villages” of imperial favorite Prince Potemkin—cardboard settlements used to justify to Catherine II the lack of development and corruption in Ukrainian lands—have long been one of the main symbols of Russian statehood for the entire world.
But the main Russian “Potemkin village” is the fear of Russia.
Putin hopes that Ukrainians, amidst the fires after Russian attacks, will capitulate in fear, and no army will be needed as all of Ukraine will fall into his pocket. Putin hopes that Europeans will be frightened of war with Russia and will vote for politicians who will stop supporting Ukraine and instead agree to restart pipelines with Russian gas.
Putin hopes that Americans will always fear nuclear conflict with Russia and therefore choose an extremely cautious model of behavior with him. Of course, he will entice members of the current administration with promises of joint business ventures, but the main thing for him is that they fear.
That is why his missiles strike Kyiv bridges—not to destroy, but to frighten. That is why, ahead of the state elections in Germany, which ended in a triumphant performance by the far-right and pro-Kremlin “Alternative for Germany,” the Russians staged a fireworks of sabotage in the eastern regions of the country. That is why Russian propagandists and even the Foreign Minister Lavrov warn of a “very short war” with Europe. That is why during his last speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin spoke of nuclear war almost as an inevitability—it is aimed at Americans, a gun hanging on the stage of the Russian president’s political theater.
One cannot deny that Putin knows how to trade in fear. Russians have the tradition, experience, and most importantly, the desire: they see true satisfaction in the pervasive fear around them. Take a walk in the evening around some neighborhood in Nizhny Tagil or Cherepovets, and then you’ll understand everything without my explanations.
If we become afraid, we lose, regardless of our actual positions and capabilities. This is exactly what he is counting on.
Collage: danviet.vn
