Georgi Kantchev and Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal / Translation iPress
Trump tightens sanctions and blockade, while Tehran is counting on high oil prices to force Washington to retreat, writes the Wall Street Journal.
Senior Trump administration officials have intensified economic pressure in the standoff with Iran: making lowering oil prices one of the main goals of the war and promising unprecedented financial sanctions to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to WSJ.
The WSJ, citing Emirati officials, reports that late Thursday, Iran attacked two UAE vessels in the strait.
According to the publication, these strikes indicate that new economic sanctions will not stop Iran and that it is ready to seize military initiative even when President Trump seems reluctant to engage in full-scale military actions. As Trump increasingly relies on the blockade of Iranian ports by US Navy forces as a tool of financial pressure on Tehran, Iranian leaders are attempting to show that they will not yield and will keep the strait closed until high energy prices force the US to retreat, analysts say.
Ali Vaez, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program, noted that Tehran has learned a simple lesson from every confrontation with Washington: if they hold out long enough, America will back down first. According to him, for a system that believes it is fighting for survival, existential threats usually only strengthen determination rather than limit the price it is willing to pay for resistance.
As WSJ notes, this week Washington made it clear that new restrictions against the Iranian economy would be introduced in the coming days. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that together with the naval blockade of Iranian ports, this would be a “double blow.”
The attempts by both sides to inflict economic damage on each other, the publication notes, are increasingly distancing them from a diplomatic solution, which seemed to have been approached thanks to the June agreement. It proposed financial benefits for Tehran if it reopens the strait and begins serious negotiations on its nuclear program.
Vice President J.D. Vance clearly outlined the administration’s priorities on Thursday, stating to Fox News that keeping energy prices low is “priority number one.”
“And, of course, goal number two is to ensure that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons,” Vance said. “I am confident that we are achieving both goals.”
“Both goals are equally important to the president,” said White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt to reporters on Friday. “That’s why the administration has done so much to maintain market stability. At the same time, ensuring that Iran never obtains nuclear weapons is a priority for the president in the context of the current conflict, and he intends to see this through one way or another.”
When starting the war, Trump stated that his goal was to force Iran to make a deal that would forever prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, as the conflict dragged on and after Tehran established control over global energy flows through the strait, which it had not previously had, Trump’s priorities seemed to change.
The WSJ writes that in recent weeks, the White House has become increasingly pessimistic about the chances of reaching a final nuclear deal with Tehran. Instead, Trump has focused on increasing pressure on Iran’s already depleted economy and forcing the regime to make a deal to open the waterway, which would allow Trump to declare victory in the war and move on.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz allows Iran to make demands on the US without making any concessions in its key nuclear program. Iranian officials believe that time is on their side and have expanded the list of demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran states that the US must end the war, lift the blockade, ease the devastating sanctions, and unfreeze Iranian funds.
According to the WSJ, the central question of the conflict now sounds like this: who will be the first to yield under economic pressure. On Friday, the war of words intensified. “After we defeat Iran, which is now suffering a crushing defeat, I will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz the territory of the United States,” Trump said on Friday during a speech in New York. Later, a White House representative stated that Trump’s words were a joke.
In response, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi wrote on X: “The Strait of Hormuz was Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian; it will be closed and opened only by Iran’s orders.”
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegset stated on Thursday that the US Navy can maintain the blockade of Iran indefinitely. American officials reported that the military is preparing to replace the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region with USS George Washington amid increasing concerns about living conditions aboard the Lincoln and the burden on service members from prolonged deployments during the war.
The WSJ reminds that Iran has repeatedly used force to prevent commercial ships from reaching the strait. Analysts say that Tehran’s ability for military escalation complicates Washington’s attempts to achieve concessions solely through economic pressure.
After the attack on vessels associated with the UAE’s national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., the total number of such attacks in August reached six. The UAE, a major oil exporter, has tried to quietly carry cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran’s strict control over this narrow passage.
As WSJ emphasizes, the strait remains mostly closed: most ships do not dare to pass without Iran’s permission, and those that do use the northern route, which is controlled by Tehran.
According to Kpler’s ship tracking system, 13 ships crossed the strait on Thursday, although before the war, more than 130 ships usually passed through it daily. Nine of them used the route controlled by Iran. This month, traffic has slowed compared to July, when an average of 26 ships crossed the strait daily.
In recent days, WSJ notes, global oil prices have fluctuated below $90 per barrel. Shipping through the strait remains limited, but regional producers have found bypass routes around this bottleneck to continue exporting oil.
However, the publication believes that prolonged disruptions are depleting global oil stocks and reducing the market’s ability to absorb new shocks. “The latent tension between the U.S. and Iran over the status of this strait means that the risk of a new crisis—and a new closure—will remain relatively high until the end of 2026,” wrote analysts from the consulting firm Eurasia Group for clients.
Trump is now trying to limit the domestic consequences of the war ahead of the midterm elections and avoid a return to full-scale hostilities by increasing economic pressure on Iran. Advisors convinced him of the merits of this strategy by showing data on the damage sanctions have already inflicted on the regime.
Bessent indicated that the pressure campaign is about to intensify, stating on Newsmax that additional measures would be announced next week.
Miad Maleki, a former senior U.S. Treasury Department official now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that before the April blockade, Iran exported about 2 million barrels of oil per day, and recently exports have almost dropped to zero. According to him, Tehran lacks about 29 million liters of gasoline per day, and due to the blockade, Iran cannot cover this deficit. “The blockade can bring the regime to its knees if Washington makes it clear that it will not be lifted on a schedule that Tehran can simply wait out,” he noted.
Although Iran’s economic losses are mounting, the country is transitioning to a survival economy designed to withstand this pressure. Tehran, which has lived under sanctions for years, is shifting an increasing burden onto households: implementing fuel and electricity rationing, limiting access to scarce foreign currency, and cutting investments, while maintaining critical imports and state resources.
WSJ reminds that Washington already tried to force Iran to concede at the beginning of the war by imposing a naval blockade just days after reaching a fragile truce. Some American officials were then convinced that a blockade for a few weeks would force Iran to agree to end the war on U.S. terms.
Instead, in June, Trump agreed to a deal that ended the blockade in exchange for Iran’s promise to reopen the waterway and discuss its nuclear program. A few weeks later, Iran, opposing U.S. attempts to escort ships through the strait, resumed attacking vessels.
