It’s interesting to read now about “what’s with that Wildberries, it doesn’t affect anything”.
A bit of statistics.
The total losses of WB alone within the company are already around 200 billion rubles (this is even before the destruction of Koledino, which is one of the flagships in terms of size and volume). That’s, for a moment, 2.4 billion dollars.
If you think this is all Wildberries’ money, you’re mistaken. This is all real estate built on loans, mostly funded by VTB. Because WB itself is not a very profitable company, they don’t have much of their own money.
And so, in one month, VTB bank received a hit to its credit portfolio of two and a half billion (and this is not the end), which for obvious reasons WB cannot return, restructuring is needed.
But there’s more.
Losses for sellers on goods amount to 600-800 billion rubles. That’s from 7 to 9.5 billion US dollars. Which (unexpectedly) were also mostly taken on loans from VTB.
It is clear that sellers frankly state that they have no money to repay the loans, they will not repay, they will wait for state assistance.
VTB adds seller sums for WB goods to problematic loans, but the overall size of the hole, where both VTB and the entire Russian banking system begin to drift after this, is so large that without state support, they won’t float.
But the state doesn’t have money.
So, we inflicted over 10 billion in damage in one month, disrupting the system that hundreds of thousands of sellers worked on (which is minus tax revenues to the budget, and significant).
Is it a lot or a little? Well, depending on how you count.
According to Roman Shraik’s calculations, due to the Iranian chaos and the best hack, thanks to the rise in oil prices and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, the Russian budget received a windfall profit of 17 billion dollars over 4 months of war. 17 billion in 4 months.
We dealt a 10 billion blow to the Russian economy in a month (and these are not final calculations, as there are much worse estimates for VTB and WB).
If anyone thinks this doesn’t affect anything, I have no idea what to say.
