At first glance, Volodymyr Zelensky has a chance to realize the dream of the anti-Maidan. To witness how the “cardboard Maidan 2.0,” unlike last year’s, “runs out of steam and disperses.”
Meanwhile, other anti-Maidan scenarios will develop:
– strengthening control over law enforcement, encouraging them to act arbitrarily towards activists, “outsiders” or competing businessmen, political opposition, courts, etc. (acting head of the SBU and postponing the reboot of the DBR – levers to influence these departments, crucial for organizing pressure);
– tightening media control, further expanding the monopoly in social networks, using society’s fears and apathy to play on emotions, portraying the government as a “savior” (or even “rescuer”), and the dissenters as embodiments of risk and unrest;
– applying “carrot and stick” tactics to the activist environment, especially young people. Didn’t want to leave the country when the opportunity opened up after last year’s protests? We’ll combat the “dodgers,” generously paving the way for conflict with the military…
Vile, insidious, with a Russian-Belarusian whiff… In short, anti-Maidan style.
Diligently trying to take Volodymyr Zelensky “out of the equation,” “above the conflict.” Making him an “arbiter” who doesn’t indulge in nonsense.
However, as protest experience in Ukraine shows, victory for the anti-Maidan here is never complete. After the suppressed or “dissolved” “tax,” “language,” and other protests of 2010-2013, Vradiivka shot up as a reaction to lawlessness, and then the refusal from Europe sparked the Revolution of Dignity.
For the authorities in Ukraine, it’s much safer to truly listen to the protesters than to drive the conflict internally and wait for an explosion when “the pitchforks are real.”
For Zelensky, it’s difficult to accept the idea that the very starting point of shuffling the personnel deck, shifting Mykhailo Fedorov from the Ministry of Defense, should be reconsidered. After all, what would he say to the so-called “mindichs” who have started feeling uncomfortable in recent months under new conditions?
As is known, it’s better not to choose from various evils but to look for another way out. To move away from the false alternative.
For Zelensky, such an exit, which would truly put him “above the situation,” would be an exit in the format of a unity coalition that would form a professional government of salvation. Fortunately, there are numerous challenges that make the creation of such a government natural right now:
– The prospects of mobilization in Russia.
– The challenges of the approaching winter under the sound of ballistic attacks.
– The external political labyrinths that increasingly complicate the country’s interests.
– The stagnation of European integration with the threat of freeze.
– The decline in trust and support in society, the growing divisions and conflicts, which are already starting to break into open space, eagerly used by Russian propaganda, “outplaying the marathon censors and Telegram bloggers, who are often of the same blood, faith, and training…”
We have long been in a perfect storm, but the resilience of Ukrainians (primarily at the front) and existing European aid programs allow us to stay afloat. But the waves are rising, and the skill at the helm increasingly fails to match their scale.
So now is the moment that opens the possibility of a decent exit to a better level. In a professional government, there would be a place for Koretsky, Fedorov, and other specialists who proved themselves either in 2014-19 or 2022-26. And the unity coalition format will reliably shield from “mindichs,” who will demand the continuation of the banquet because it will block access to the banquet hall for those who do not belong there. Now is not the time to feast.
What Zelensky will choose now, unfortunately, is clear. Look to the beginning of this post.
But protests continue, dissatisfaction is growing, and the warm summer will end. Winter is coming. Black swans are looking around to see whom to peck.
