Putin is persistently trying to unlock the stalemate at the front by using his last major reserve. The inability of the Russian army to achieve strategic breakthroughs in eastern and southern Ukraine forces the Kremlin to exert unprecedented pressure on Minsk. Moscow’s main goal is obvious: to forcibly draw Belarus into direct combat, artificially stretching Ukraine’s defense forces, forcing Kyiv to redeploy scarce reserves to the northern direction, and divert the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, for Alexander Lukashenko, this step, which he has been frantically avoiding since 2022, will mark the beginning of the inevitable collapse of his regime.
It is precisely a long series of failures that compels the Kremlin to act aggressively. Moscow plays the “Union State” card, demanding from Minsk not just logistical support, but real “blood.” The recorded activity in the border areas, from engineering works to sudden checks of combat readiness, indicates that Putin is trying to press the Belarusian dictator. The Kremlin needs a second front or at least a large-scale simulation of an invasion from the north.
However, for Lukashenko himself, fully entering the war is, de facto, signing his own death warrant. There are a number of factors explaining why direct aggression will lead to the collapse of the authoritarian regime in Minsk.
The Belarusian society in its absolute majority categorically opposes participation in the war. The memory of the harshly suppressed protests of 2020 is alive, and latent discontent with the regime has not disappeared. As soon as the first coffins with mobilized arrive in Belarusian cities, fragile stability will collapse. This will instantly revive mass anti-regime sentiments, which the repressive machine will be unable to control.
It should be added that the armed forces of Belarus lack real combat experience and, critically for Minsk, are not motivated to fight for Moscow’s foreign imperial ambitions. There is a colossal risk of mass desertion, sabotage of orders, and even the defection of entire units to Ukraine’s side. Weapons issued to citizens during mobilization could turn against the regime itself.
There is also the question of military resource depletion. Over the years of the war, Minsk has actively drained its warehouses, transferring heavy armor, artillery, and ammunition to Russia. The Belarusian army today is significantly bloodless in technical terms. Sending such a group to storm the prepared and deeply echeloned defensive lines in northern Ukraine is a conscious military suicide.
On its part, Ukraine has clearly stated that it will not passively watch the violation of its sovereign border. In the case of direct aggression, Kyiv has the full right to a tough preemptive response. High-tech strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military facilities, oil refineries, and critical infrastructure in Mozyr, Gomel, or Brest will paralyze the remnants of the Belarusian economy. Western countries will impose a total embargo, fully isolating the country.
Putin views Belarus solely as expendable material for saving his own military adventure. The Kremlin’s attempt to use Minsk, floundering under duress, to distract Ukrainian forces is a very cynical geopolitical trap. If Lukashenko succumbs to Moscow’s pressure, his regime will self-destruct, unable to withstand the combination of external military defeat and internal uprising.
Photo: Occupier’s Media
