The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia have become a catalyst for a wide range of aggressive actions from Moscow. Russia fears the outcome of the decisive expression of will by the Armenian people, as the country may finally break away from its geopolitical influence. To prevent the complete loss of control over the South Caucasus, the Kremlin has launched a large-scale hybrid interference campaign.
The most cynical lever of influence on Yerevan traditionally remains economic pressure. An apparent act of political retribution should be seen in the episode where Rosselkhoznadzor found new violations in Armenian products right after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to attend the parade with Putin. This step clearly demonstrates how Russian sanitary services instantly turn into a tool of geopolitical pressure, reacting to the sovereign decisions of the Armenian leadership.
Simultaneously with external pressure, Russia employs hidden mechanisms of influence within Armenia itself through controlled business structures. Seeking to destabilize the electoral process and impose loyal leadership on Yerevan, the Russian concern “Gazprom” uses administrative resources with respect to the employees of its subsidiary “Gazprom Armenia,” to ensure support for the pro-Russian bloc “Strong Armenia.” The unprincipled use of the vast collective of the energy monopoly is intended to artificially mobilize the electorate in favor of revanchist forces.
It should be emphasized that the Kremlin’s attempts to isolate Yerevan and tarnish its international reputation only highlight the weakness of Russia’s own positions.
Armenian analysts note that by including Armenia in the Russian Foreign Ministry’s “blacklist,” it only emphasizes that the republic, placing its state interests at the forefront, is successfully breaking free from Kremlin influence, gaining a reputation as a reliable partner and a real voice on the world stage.
Alongside diplomatic gestures, Moscow tries to deploy an informational campaign to discredit security within the republic. Russia seeks to portray Armenia as a dangerous zone, although the risks for Russians are created by Moscow’s own foreign policy. Armenia simply wants to live by the standards of developed European countries, which the Russian leadership now views with apprehension. Yerevan’s desire to independently ensure legal transparency and its own security irritates the Kremlin, accustomed to legal chaos.
The current electoral cycle demonstrates the final break of Armenia with the practice of backstage submission to the dictates of the former metropolis.
Yerevan clearly indicates that international law and commitments to the democratic community now mean much more to the country than backstage agreements with Moscow, and Armenia strives to become part of a civilized legal space where common laws apply to all, rather than selective temporary preferences.
The current sharp and nervous reaction of the Russian authorities confirms that Armenia is moving in the right direction. Moscow has effectively acknowledged that it no longer controls key structures in Armenia as it would like, which for Armenian society is a positive sign, confirming that the country is ceasing to be a “back door” for Russia and a “gray zone” of its boundless influence.
The democratic choice of the Armenian people becomes a reliable shield against imperial intervention and a guarantee of the country’s independent future.
