The future Prime Minister of Hungary, Peter Magyar, even before taking office, set a condition: the unblocking of Ukraine’s negotiations with the EU in exchange for the expansion of rights for Ukrainian citizens of Hungarian descent. Bloomberg confirms that these conditions resemble those previously proposed by Orban. Some have already rushed to say that here is a new Orban, just younger.
I would not be so quick.
Yes, the position is similar. But there are things that fundamentally distinguish the situation. Orban blocked Ukraine because it was part of his global game—with Putin, with Trump, with everything he had been building for years. For Magyar, the situation with the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia is a demonstration of the ability to solve issues that Orban did not. The difference is fundamental.
FIDESZ is already characterizing the competitor in its propaganda as a person who betrays the interests of Hungarians abroad. So any step that looks like capitulation to Brussels or Kyiv will immediately become a weapon in the hands of opponents. And Magyar needs to prove his effectiveness—showing that a constructive approach yields more results than Orban’s scandals.
And here is the most interesting part. What for Orban was a pretext—to block everything and find significant arguments for this, for Magyar is a reason, that is, a real goal. He wants to resolve the issues of Hungarians, not use them.
For Ukraine, this means that if diplomacy works, the problem will go away. But if Zelensky tries to pressure Magyar as he is used to pressuring negotiation partners, nothing will work. Magyar is his own Zelensky.
Simply put, Zelensky will have to give Magyar something that could be called a compromise. And then the negotiation process will move forward.
But that’s not all. There is a bigger problem that the Hungarian issue merely illustrates.
For EU accession, Ukraine needs understanding with its neighbors. Without this, no European integration is possible, even if we successfully close all negotiation chapters. And it’s not just about Hungary. Bulgaria has been blocking North Macedonia’s negotiations for years—over history, over identity. If Ukraine does not find a diplomatic formula that allows solving such complex bilateral issues, our European integration will face the same fate.
But unlike North Macedonia, we will not end up in a “gray zone”.
We will end up in Putin’s sphere of influence.
