After the first trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi during the entire duration of the major Russian-Ukrainian war, sources in the American administration suggested that a personal meeting between Zelensky and Putin might soon take place. Political fiction? Perhaps. But even the trilateral meeting itself seemed like political fiction until recently. And yet, it happened.
When we habitually say that Putin is not so much negotiating as he is imitating negotiations, i.e., dragging out time, we must understand: even for imitation, an agenda is needed. The main point is that the Russian president is clearly not interested in direct confrontation with his American counterpart and is doing everything to avoid this confrontation.
But for this, it is necessary first of all to demonstrate a desire for peace and readiness to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. And here the set of “tricks” with which the Kremlin magician tries to hypnotize the audience is obviously running out.
Initially, in the first months after Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, telephone calls and talks about possibilities to end the war sufficed: the American president insisted on a ceasefire, and the Russian politely refused.
Later, when Trump began talking about “wonderful phone calls” that lead to no results, Putin proposed to “unblock” the Istanbul process — without tangible progress. A bilateral meeting was held in Anchorage, but even there no agreement was reached, except that later there was talk of the “spirit” of this meeting, by which Moscow continues to understand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from non-occupied areas of Donbas.
Then Putin, trying to prevent Ukraine from receiving long-range weapons, agreed with Trump on a meeting in Budapest. However, this summit fell through after the foreign policy leaders failed to agree on possible arrangements. An irritated Trump imposed sanctions against Russian oil giants. And here appeared the “peace plan” proposed by the Russian side to the White House. But to discuss it and demonstrate seriousness of intentions, a meeting is necessary.
And now we are precisely at this stage. When the Russians even had to agree to a trilateral meeting in order to demonstrate a desire for peace. But Washington will push Moscow toward the next steps. Even toward a meeting between the presidents, which will then become an undoubted diplomatic triumph for Donald Trump. After all, bringing Zelensky and Putin to the same table is much harder than, say, the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev, who had met each other multiple times before visiting the Oval Office.
Does this mean we are approaching the end of the war? No negotiations, even at the highest level, guarantee this. However, there is another important formula, connected to the real state of the Russian economy and Putin’s readiness to risk new Western sanctions. If the Russian president concludes that his economic capabilities do not allow him to continue the war for several more years, and new sanctions would significantly worsen the state of the Russian economy, he will agree to a meeting with Zelensky and to cease hostilities.
Can we say that we are already seeing signs of this change of intent amidst the brutal bombing of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the attempts to literally freeze the civilian population? To some extent, such signs are the trilateral negotiations themselves and the composition of the Russian delegation, where we no longer see “historian” Medinsky, but instead know about the presence of generals and even the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff — Admiral Igor Kostyukov. And such officials are not there just for “furniture,” but for discussions on truly serious matters.
This demonstrates that there are currently several options for conflict development on Putin’s desk. It remains only to understand which one the Kremlin leader will prefer, and what exactly will force him to choose peace.
Collage: Radio Svoboda
Copyright © 2021 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission from Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
