Oleksandr Kovalenko / Obozrevatel
Recently, it became known about the failure of the Russian project analogous to Starlink, for which the company “Bureau 1440” was responsible. It was unable to produce the first 16 low-orbit broadband internet satellites within a year, which were to be the first operational batch in orbit.
Why this happened and what battle will soon unfold in Russia – read in the joint project material by OBOZ.UA and the group “Information Resistance”.
Chronicle of the “disaster”
Such a result was not surprising. In April last year, in the article “In Russia, they are ‘seriously concerned’ about the Starlink analog: who is entrusted with the project and how realistic it is to outdo Musk’s creation”, I noted a number of factors according to which the modern Russian space industry cannot possibly undertake such an ambitious and high-tech project as Starlink.
According to Russian plans, the company “Bureau 1440” (formerly “Megafon 1440”) was to launch 292 spacecraft into space and 91 to replace those that had expired by 2030. The project’s cost was estimated at 445 billion rubles, or nearly 5 billion dollars at an unstable rate.
But in June, the head of “Roscosmos”, Dmitry Bakanov, made a statement that bordered on schizoid absurdity, stating that by 2035, over 900 low-orbit satellites for providing broadband internet access would be deployed in orbit as part of the Rassvet project.
At the time of this statement, some falseness was already felt in the Rassvet project’s story. Especially since “Bureau 1440” launched the first six Rassvet test satellites in 2023, which provided data transfer speeds of up to 12 Mbps with a delay of up to 41 milliseconds. But the nuance of these satellites is that they were mostly assembled from Western components, the supply of which is now closed to Russia due to sanctions.
So, from 2023, Russia could not assemble 16 satellites to conduct even the first pilot launch?
Nothing surprising, especially considering that this is not the first failed Russian space project – a competitor to Starlink.
Failure of “Sphere”
When Dmitry Rogozin, a great enthusiast of trampolines, was the head of “Roscosmos,” he actively promoted the global satellite system “Sphere” project. This project involved placing a group of 638 satellites in Earth’s orbit, including 334 communication satellites, 55 navigation satellites, and 249 Earth remote sensing devices.
At first glance, it sounds quite good, but it was immediately clear not only that Russia will not be able to implement this project technically and technologically, but also that this is another “Potemkin village” for budget fund embezzlement. The first sign was that “Sfera” was valued at an astronomical 1.5 trillion rubles in 2021, or at the exchange rate of that time – 60 billion dollars.
The “Roskosmos” project was even more expensive than SpaceX’s budget for launching 12,000 Starlink satellites at 10 billion dollars.
Again, launching 12,000 Starlink satellites for $10 billion and the “Sfera” project with 638 satellites for $60 billion. It seems Dmitry Rogozin wanted to secure his retirement this way.
On the other hand, the Rassvet project, although 12 times cheaper than “Sfera”, is still only twice cheaper than Starlink, which clearly hints at the corruption component of the more budget-friendly sham from “Bureau 1440”.
But what’s more interesting about Rassvet and “Sfera” is that their story is evidently not over, as it is not about a technological breakthrough but about a struggle for the trough.
Corruption Battle for Space
What’s interesting in the history of Russian analogs of Starlink is that each one has its influential lobbyist. In particular, for “Sfera”, the lobbyist was Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, and the project was promoted through “Roskosmos” not just because, but due to Manturov’s close ties with embezzlement in the space sector through the former “cosmonaut” Dmitry Rogozin.
On the other hand, the project from “Bureau 1440” is being lobbied by Maksut Shadaev, the Minister of Digital Development, and “Rostelecom”.
And now the cheaper Rassvet failed at the start. This can stimulate “Sfera” with a clear message – yes, it’s expensive, yes, 1.5 trillion rubles, but, they say, the price is justified, and this can only really be implemented for such money in the current, difficult conditions.
In other words, the failure of the pilot batch launch of Rassvet will only heat up the corruption competition of projects that will never be realized. But it is beneficial for us that Russian budget funds are spread across as many areas as possible, rather than being concentrated solely on war.
In a certain sense, we root for both sides of the impending spider battle in the jar, against the backdrop of demonstrating the absolute technological ineptitude of the so-called space “superpower”.
By the way, today there are 9,500 Starlink satellites in Earth’s orbit, and the US Federal Commission (FCC) has approved the network’s expansion to 15,000 satellites with the potential for further group expansion in the future.
