Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 03/28/2026.
1. Russian oil producers may declare force majeure due to attacks on Baltic ports.
– After a series of Ukrainian drone strikes, oil shipments in the port of Ust-Luga, one of the main export hubs of the Russian Federation, have been halted. The fire caused by the previous attack has not yet been extinguished, and the timeline for resuming operations has not been officially determined. Full loading may not resume until at least mid-April.
– Another critically important port, Primorsk, was also hit. Although operations have partially resumed there, stability remains in question.
– Due to this, Russian companies are already warning buyers about the possibility of force majeure.
– Besides port attacks, pipeline issues and tanker incidents also have an impact. Ukraine is deliberately intensifying strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, trying to compensate for the weakening international sanctions pressure caused by global market disruptions due to the war around Iran.
2. Russia is reintroducing a ban on gasoline exports—this time due to strikes on oil refining infrastructure and rising fuel prices.
– The government is already preparing a decision to completely ban gasoline exports from April 1, 2026. The official reason is the need to stabilize domestic prices and ensure priority fuel supply to the domestic market amid turbulence caused by the global Middle East crisis.
– In reality, the decision is a direct consequence of a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, which have already led to the shutdown of at least three large enterprises: the Volgograd Refinery; the Saratov Refinery; “Kirishinefteorgsintez” (KINEF) in the Leningrad Region—the second largest refinery in the Russian Federation.
– Against this backdrop, the situation in the fuel market is rapidly deteriorating. Since late February, after the escalation in the Middle East and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, wholesale prices in Russia have risen sharply: gasoline has increased by 14%, diesel by 22%.
3. Russian businesses are massively failing in attempts to implement artificial intelligence: about 90% of such projects in 2025 were unsuccessful.
– The companies failed to integrate either large language models or chatbots into their workflows, and about 40% of initiatives were abandoned at the pilot stage. This is evidenced by a survey of about 50 large organizations from IT, industry, finance, transport, logistics, and the public sector.
– The key reason for the failure was the focus on flashy PR rather than practical solutions. As a result, companies launched projects that had no real practical value or were technically raw.
– As a result, most Russian companies were unable to move from experiments to real AI usage, once again demonstrating technological lag and limited access to quality solutions.
4. The Russian construction industry is showing a sharp decline, which has already led to a collapse in cement production.
– As of January–February 2026, cement production decreased by 31.2% year-on-year — to 4.2 million tons. Consumption also fell — by 25.7%, to 4.5 million tons. By the end of the year, demand may decrease by another 15 million tons, to about 46 million tons — the minimum level since 2010.
– The cause was a deep downturn in construction. Housing completions in January alone were down 27% — to 8.04 million square meters, while the launch of new projects in 2025 decreased by 12%. The current drop in cement demand is equivalent to the shutdown of about seven large plants, each with a capacity of about 2 million tons per year.
– The dynamics indicate a systemic crisis in the Russian construction sector, which has traditionally been a driver of domestic demand. Reduced investment, falling sales, and limited access to financing create a chain reaction that hits related industries and exacerbates the overall economic slowdown.
5. In Russia, the shortage of mineral fertilizers is worsening, already creating risks for the sowing campaign and future harvests.
– Farmers report a sharp rise in prices and a physical shortage of key positions, in particular ammonium nitrate, which has virtually disappeared from the domestic market.
– According to industry associations, since the beginning of the year, the average cost of fertilizers has risen by more than 30%, reaching record levels. Agricultural producers complain about the inability to purchase the necessary volumes even at increased prices, threatening the conduct of spring fieldwork.
– One of the key reasons for the crisis was the abolition of export duties on fertilizers, which encouraged producers to refocus on external markets with higher margins.
– Additional pressure was caused by the increase in global demand due to supply disruptions in the global market, particularly in connection with restrictions in the Persian Gulf region. The situation demonstrates a mismatch between export policy and domestic needs: the priority of foreign revenues has effectively left the domestic market without sufficient supply.
– As a result, the agricultural sector, which is critically important for food security, faces resource shortages and rising costs.
6. The Russian coal industry is on the brink of a large-scale collapse, which could affect dozens of enterprises and entire mono-cities.
– The Russian government acknowledges a sharp deterioration in the situation: 62 companies are already in the “red zone,” 20 of which have halted production, and another 14 are preparing for liquidation or conservation.
– By the end of 2025, the industry’s total loss reached a record 408 billion rubles, with three out of four enterprises becoming unprofitable. On average, each ton of coal brought about 1000 rubles in losses, indicating a complete loss of mining profitability. In 2026, the situation worsens: losses are expected to grow by another 41% — up to 576 billion rubles.
– This trend indicates a systemic crisis that encompasses the entire industry and lacks quick resolutions. Additional pressure is created by declining exports: China, which has become a key buyer of Russian coal, has reduced imports for the third consecutive year — from 102.1 million tons in 2023 to 88.8 million tons in 2025.
– In the early months of 2026, deliveries fell by another 15%. The financial condition of companies is complicated by high interest rates and accumulating debts, while state support is limited in time.
– Previously introduced tax reliefs are coming to an end, and there are no plans to extend them, increasing the risks of mass bankruptcies.
Illustration: Denis Zhbankov
