So, we are approaching the equator of the last month of summer, so let’s start thinking about what to expect from the fall/winter. Considering the main expectations and prospects.
The Front
Here, everything is more or less clear, and there shouldn’t be any unexpected developments. Wunderwaffe didn’t appear, the RF SBS hasn’t scaled up, so the tactic will remain the same: meat assaults under drones.
Mobilization in the RF – in fact, it’s already a done deal, and it has already started in a hidden form. I’ve read different numbers about the troops they want to enlist, but honestly, I don’t really believe them. Like in the joke, “he wants to, but who will give him that much?” But they are capable of increasing the flow on the front by one and a half times over several months, especially having a reserve of North Koreans. So, most likely, they will follow the strategy of one strong strike towards Sloviansk/Kramatorsk with everything they have.
How will we respond?
Firstly, continuing work on logistics. To move people in the fall/winter, transport is needed; you can’t get far on foot. Increasing personnel means increasing logistics. This means that hunting for logistics will be more effective. By the way, the fuel crisis in the RF military hasn’t been resolved; let’s see how this manifests when there is a need to increase logistics.
Accumulation will occur in Donetsk, Selidovo, Novohrodivka, Pokrovsk, and it is important to keep these roads under constant fire control all the time.
Secondly, the small sky. FPV and Mavics this winter are supplemented by a new class of wings – cheap drones that can fly near the edge of clouds at altitudes of 250-300 meters. This is the new “Valkyrie” with digital communication and a gimbal, as well as newcomers “Sokil” and “Babka”. With correct application of these means in the troops, they can extend the objective control zone 10-15 km further than the “Mavics” zone and organize control over personnel movement, coordination of artillery strikes, and strikes with different drones.
Opposing such drones in the winter is quite difficult, as they can fly at altitudes lower than tactical radars, along the lower edge of clouds. Anti-aircraft drones are not very good at finding such objects because radars don’t see well and they don’t usually have cameras looking upwards to find another drone; an anti-aircraft drone needs to fly at the same height as the target, or even better, rise higher. Properly organized work on detection/destruction in the first echelon is an important tactic this winter when the weather allows.
The Russians have their own cheap reconnaissance drone, the Molniya with a gimbal, but it still loses to Ukrainian means.
Thirdly, counteracting the “Starlink-drones” flying in the clouds is quite difficult. There is hope for EW against “Starlink”. This means that the effectiveness of mid-strike hits will increase. But there will be more zones where “Starlink” is closed. How to counteract this is clear: have a reserve of drones on radio communication and strike enemy EW.
In principle, the SOU forces are capable of grinding down even twice as large forces with twice the personnel density. In winter, when the plantations become bare, detection/hit efficiency will increase; if we managed to halt infiltration in such a difficult direction as Pokrovsk in summer, with its large plantations, ravines, and many ruined villages to hide in, then I think in the fall/winter we can try to stop them altogether.
The main thing is that drones are supplied to the troops in the same quantity as before, and we can stand firm. It will not be easy as the enemy will also intensify efforts to hunt our logistics, and they have their own mid-strike, but in these areas, we are starting to outpace them, and the main thing here is not to lose the initiative.
The Rear
Things are more complicated here. Russia will terrorize Kyiv and other cities, and it will be painful. I hope the winter won’t be as harsh as the previous one.
We will milk WB, push a bit against Ozon, continue to destroy the oil and gas industry, and in response, start destroying substations and thermal power plants in the RF on a larger scale.
If there is an opportunity to spend the winter not in Ukraine, I would recommend taking this opportunity. Kyiv currently clearly doesn’t look like a city that can sturdily endure this winter; it will be difficult. Especially considering the fact that the RF has invested more in ballistics and involved North Korean missile units for terror.
And in spring, we will see who has been more defeated. We need to win this competition by a large margin.
Photo: Lviv_resistance
