Navrotsky provokes a Russian attack on Poland: aiming for Ukraine’s neutrality in Putin’s interest.
For the last 10 days, there have been arguments from various sides that Navrotsky traded the conflict with Ukraine (with a move to block aid) for guarantees from Russia not to threaten Poland. That is, allegedly acting as a pragmatic defender of the country.
It seems everything is quite the opposite. Especially evident against the backdrop of the burning terminal in Saint Petersburg.
1. In the negotiations and accompanying polemics on the settlement starting from 2022, besides the political-humanitarian block, very specific, measurable, crucial military positions for the Kremlin were discussed.
And it’s not about the size of the army.
It involved, first of all, restrictions on certain types of weapons. But mainly, Ukraine’s neutrality. This is the main demand of the Kremlin.
If Moscow decides to stir “activity” in Europe – Ukraine does not intervene. De jure and de facto.
Nothing invades Russia (by land, air, sea) that can invade from our territory. “Ukrainian volunteers” do not go to Europe, Ukraine does not support the army with weapons and other supplies. And so on.
Naturally, this is extremely unfavorable for Europe and NATO as a whole. Hence the dialogue between the conditional West and Ukraine continues.
You stay outside the defensive perimeter, we support you, in case of escalation from the Russian Federation you act as a buffer and/or flank stronghold. Approximately this is how the West’s position sounds.
Ukraine’s position: you take us inside, the relations are raised to the level of a binding military alliance. Then it is serious. Because now the help is considerable, but clearly inadequate to the situation. And the decision-making process is terrible and sometimes inexplicable, due to which we suffer human and material losses.
In any case, it was almost guaranteed that even without formalization Ukraine would act as a military ally of Europe. This was prompted by a combination of moral and pragmatic guidelines.
Until Karol Navrotsky intervened.
2. The President of Poland raised the emotional stakes to such a level (and this is not the end yet) that for Ukrainian society the idea of “suffering, dying in the context of helping Poles” is gradually becoming unacceptable.
On one hand, the Left Bank is not just exhausted – it is gutted by war.
On the other hand, Navrotsky and his like-minded people are currently directly insulting the residents of western regions of Ukraine, extending to all Ukrainians.
I am sure that a poll “do you approve the idea of active military assistance to Poland” three months ago would have shown one set of numbers, and now – completely different.
I am far from thinking that the President of Poland is a “Moscow agent.” Rather, he was outplayed or he does not realize all the consequences.
Navrotsky not only blocks the possibility of Ukraine’s official military alliance with Europe, but also destroys the potential for assistance to Poland by all types of volunteers from Ukraine.
The problem also lies in the fact that the barrier at the level of Poland catastrophically narrows the maneuver for helping the Baltic countries, which have done a lot for us.
This means that Navrotsky, possibly without even realizing it, is doing invaluable work for Putin. He is literally driving Ukraine into actual neutrality. Putin couldn’t, but Navrotsky succeeded.
What is the outcome?
Navrotsky’s attacks and those of his ilk on Ukraine create a problem for Brussels and colossal risks for Poland, as the Baltic-Polish, rather than the conditionally “Romanian-Bulgarian,” direction remains the most likely area for escalation from Russia.
Brussels (NATO, EU) reasonably expects Ukraine’s intervention in case of future confrontation with Russia (the coalition of Moscow’s friends). However, the Ukrainian government (any) will face implementation problems, even if it strongly wishes to help. For the reasons described above: half the country is devastated, the other half is also insulted. People will be categorically against it.
This explains why the Russians are investing in inflating the conflict almost openly. A unique chance for them, the stakes are very high…
Previously, Putin’s attack on Europe was a hypothetical category; now it is becoming more and more realistic.
And Europe must recognize whom to thank.
Our main task today is not to recall all the grievances and conflicts that divide Poles and Ukrainians, but to support those Poles who are sincere advocates of Polish-Ukrainian understanding. And remember that there are many, many such people. But there are also many who hate Ukrainians and want to exploit Polish-Ukrainian misunderstandings — and much will depend on us in this confrontation between these two Polands.
I want to remind you that among our compatriots there have always been those who not only advocated for Ukraine’s subordination to Russia but were also ready to vote for politicians who engaged in the dismantling of the Ukrainian state. Who despised the Ukrainian language, culture, history — and did everything possible for their position to prevail in our country. And who haven’t disappeared today — the smoke of war just prevents us from seeing how many there are. Yes, these people elected presidents and deputies, won elections. And they can continue to win in post-war Ukraine. But we have always wanted not to be identified with them, for people around to see another Ukraine — democratic, European, and, most importantly, Ukrainian. So why do we want to see only those in Poland who despise us and not those who want to be with us?
The future of Ukraine and the future of Poland depends on whether Ukrainians, who see their country’s future in Europe — tolerant, democratic, state-oriented — can win together with Poles who believe in a democratic and European Poland, tolerant to neighbors.
The future depends on whether we are able to unite and stand against those who have wanted to divide the Polish and Ukrainian peoples for centuries.
Those in Moscow.
Photo: gov.pl
