Information on the current losses of Russia due to sanctions as of 10.10.2026.
1. Ukrainian forces struck the oil terminal at the Novoshakhtinsk oil products plant in Rostov.
– In Rostov-on-Don, the oil terminal of the “Rostov” branch of the Novoshakhtinsk oil products plant was struck. The facility is used for storage, receipt, and transshipment of oil products, particularly for the export shipment of plant products.
– The terminal’s design capacity is up to 3.5 million tons of oil products per year for both receipt and shipment.
2. Russia’s budget expenditures increased by 14.5%, and the deficit exceeded 5 trillion rubles.
– In January–September 2026, Russia’s federal budget expenditures increased by 14.5% — to 34.8 trillion rubles compared to 30.4 trillion rubles for the same period last year. The budget deficit reached 5.19 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP. The increase in expenditures is largely due to financing the war against Ukraine, while the reduction in revenues increases pressure on state finances. Military expenditures are expected to reach 17 trillion rubles by the end of 2026 — approximately 40% more than the initial plan announced at the end of 2025.
– The Ministry of Finance forecasts that by the end of the year, the budget deficit will grow to 7.35 trillion rubles, or 3.2% of GDP. This is almost twice the originally planned 3.8 trillion rubles.
– High state expenditures complicate the fight against inflation and limit the Central Bank’s ability to lower the key rate. As a result, the cost of loans for businesses and the public may remain high, and financing the budget deficit could become more expensive.
– The increase in war expenditures and worsening budget balance narrow the financial options for the Russian authorities: to cover the deficit, they will have to borrow more, use reserves, or seek additional revenues.
3. Ukrainian attack paralyzed Moscow airports and halted the landing of Russian government planes.
– On Friday, October 9, an attack by Ukrainian drones caused significant disruptions at Moscow airports. Due to flight restrictions, Russian government planes returning from a summit in Turkmenistan with Putin had to circle over Moscow.
– During the day, over 370 flights were delayed at Moscow airports, and 62 more departures were canceled. Vnukovo suffered the most, with 158 flights delayed and 38 canceled. At Sheremetyevo, 157 flights were delayed. Restrictions were also in place at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky.
– Long queues formed in the terminals, with passengers waiting for flights while sitting on the floor. Some planes were redirected to alternative airfields. The delays at the Moscow aviation hub disrupted the schedule of a number of other flights.
– The attack once again demonstrated the vulnerability of Moscow’s air traffic: the drone threat forced all four of the capital’s airports to restrict operations simultaneously and even disrupted government aviation.
4. Russia has increased its maritime exports of petroleum products, but diesel supplies have fallen to their lowest in over 10 years.
– In September, the maritime export of Russian petroleum products rose to a three-month high — approximately 1.17 million barrels per day. However, the supply of diesel and gas oil fell to 144,000 barrels per day — the lowest monthly figure in over a decade.
– The drop in diesel exports is associated with a ban imposed by the Russian authorities on its export. The reduction in supply was offset by an increase in exports of other petroleum products, primarily fuel oil and light virgin naphtha.
– The export of light virgin naphtha increased by 35% — to 363,000 barrels per day. Fuel oil supplies increased by 6% — to approximately 613,000 barrels per day, the highest since April. Nearly 80% of the fuel oil was shipped through Baltic ports. The export of gasoline and its components was about 19,000 barrels per day, while no aviation fuel shipments were recorded.
– The export of raw materials for refineries, including vacuum gas oil, was around 32,000 barrels per day.
– The overall increase in petroleum product exports does not mean a recovery in diesel supply. The Russian refining industry is forced to adapt to export restrictions and production issues, while the government has to balance between supplying the domestic market and accumulating excess stocks.
5. Trump has eased sanctions on Russian diesel, but the supplies will not eliminate the global deficit.
– U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Putin regarding the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the global market and eased sanctions against Russian supplies.
– The decision was made less than a month before the U.S. Congressional midterm elections, which will take place on November 3. Amid a sharp rise in fuel prices, the Trump administration is trying to demonstrate that it can lower prices for American consumers.
– According to Trump, Russia must immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons thereafter, and an additional 3 million tons over a short period, depending on the state of Russian refineries. In total, this amounts to 4.8 million tons.
– However, the Kremlin has not confirmed all the announced volumes, and the timing and conditions of the supply remain undefined.
– For context: in 2025, the U.S. exported about 62.5 million tons of diesel fuel, while Russia exported 34.2 million tons. The American figure was approximately 1.8 times larger. Even if Russia meets the entire promise of 4.8 million tons, this volume will represent about 7.7% of the annual U.S. diesel exports and 14% of last year’s Russian exports.
– It should be noted that these are announced future supplies, not fuel that has already reached the market. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a temporary general license allowing transactions with Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.
– Meanwhile, the Russian refining industry is suffering from Ukrainian drone strikes, and plant damages are limiting production and export capabilities. Therefore, Moscow’s ability to fully deliver on its promise remains in question.
– After Trump’s announcement, diesel futures fell by about 4%, but this does not yet indicate a long-term price drop. If Russia merely redirects fuel previously supplied to other buyers to the American market, those buyers will seek alternative sources. As a result, global supply will not significantly increase, and the deficit will merely shift between regions.
– Thus, easing sanctions might give Trump a short-term political argument ahead of the Congressional elections, but it does not guarantee a noticeable and sustained price decline on its own.
– At the same time, the permission opens additional opportunities for Russia to sell fuel and earn revenues that fund its military expenditures.
6. Baltic countries demand a ban on the transit of Russian grain through the EU. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have proposed the European Union ban the transit of Russian grain through the bloc’s territory.
– They sent the relevant letter to the President of the European Council António Costa and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The Baltic countries seek to stop the transport of Russian grain through their ports after Russia increased its transportation via the Baltic Sea in response to Ukrainian attacks on its Black Sea ports.
– “The EU should not become a channel through which Russia compensates for the economic consequences of its own aggression,” the statement says. Last week, Estonia announced the first ban on the transit of Russian goods through its ports.
– The country’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, plans to raise this issue at the European Council meeting next week.
– The Prime Minister of Lithuania, Mindaugas Sinkevicius, also supported the ban on the transit of Russian grain and proposed imposing sanctions against Russian agricultural oligarchs who support the war against Ukraine.
