Today — Kostiantynivka direction.
1. Intense battles for the Kostiantynivka defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue. The enemy (Russian forces) with two of their tactical groups (TG) “Dzerzhinsk” and “Bakhmut”, based on the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) and the 3rd Army Corps (AC) group “South”, attempts to capture the city of Kostiantynivka and its surrounding area.
However, the main operational-tactical goal of the enemy in this context is evidently the complete capture of the Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka agglomeration and the advance of the left flank of the “South” group towards the approaches to Kramatorsk from the south and southeast. To achieve this, the Russian command has concentrated and deployed significant forces and means in this direction. Specifically:
TG “Dzerzhinsk”:
– 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 3rd CAA,
– 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th CAA,
– 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th CAA,
– 78th Motorized Regiment (Special Purpose) “Sever-Akhmat” of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th CAA — operating in this direction with separate units only,
– 54th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps,
– 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd CAA,
– 1219th, 1436th, and 1465th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 51st CAA,
– 20th and 155th Consolidated Regiments “Russian Naval Infantry”,
– 77th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Regimental Tactical Group) of the 7th Military Base (Gudauta, Abkhazia) of the 49th CAA.
TG “Bakhmut”. It essentially represents the main forces of the 3rd AC, namely:
– 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd AC,
– 1008th, 1307th, and 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd AC,
– 89th Tank Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd AC.
In addition to the aforementioned forces and means of the enemy, supporting their two TGs currently assaulting the Kostiantynivka defense area are also the main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th CAA (24th, 26th, 28th Motorized Rifle Regiments and 17th Tank Regiment), who are trying to advance towards Chasiv Yar — Druzhkivka, as well as certain forces and means of the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th CAA, attempting to advance in the directions of Sofiivka – Ryske and Rusyn Yar – Druzhkivka.
2. The battles for Kostiantynivka are quite persistent and fierce on both sides. Regarding the current situation, it is worth noting that the enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the right flank of the 8th CAA and in the sector of the 3rd Army Corps, specifically to the south, southeast, and east of Kostiantynivka, as well as in its southern and eastern parts.
Currently, the enemy has managed to infiltrate a few relatively significant assault groups into the city. However, it is unlikely that they have confident and stable control in these areas, as the main forces of the enemy’s forward units and formations are still outside the city. The presence of enemy infantry (assault) groups has been recorded in the southeastern part of the city (between Ostrovsky Street and road T-0504), in the east (Sechkin Street, Radishchev Street), and partially in the area of Makiivska and Bakhmutska Streets. However, fighting continues in all these areas, and the enemy has not yet been able to secure these areas with significant forces. The total area where the enemy’s assault groups were recorded in the city as of yesterday is unlikely to exceed 7-8% of the city’s total area.
Moreover, it is evident that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out a series of counterattacks both in Kostyantynivka itself and on its outskirts, effectively halting the further advance of small enemy infantry (assault) groups in several areas simultaneously. For example, in the eastern part of Kostyantynivka, in the area of Illinivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stepanivka.
Meanwhile, the enemy persistently tries to reinforce its infantry (assault) groups already present in the city, particularly with drone operator groups, actively amassing assault infantry in forward units, and preparing for a massive assault on the central (western) part of Kostyantynivka and the local railway station area. At the same time, they are actively attempting to impact the main supply and support communications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ forward units and formations defending in the Kostyantynivka area.
As of yesterday evening, the enemy undertook a series of offensive (infiltration) actions in the following areas:
– In the direction of Yablunivka — Stepanivka, attempting to take full control of the latter. In vain. Additionally, separate enemy infantry groups that previously penetrated the southern outskirts of Dovha Balka, bypassing Stepanivka from the east, were evidently destroyed a few days ago.
– Persistent efforts were recorded by the enemy to discreetly move small infantry groups northward along a wooded ravine leading from the highway junction southwest of Berestok to Illinivka, to reinforce their “stormtroopers” who “clung” to this village.
– From Berestok, along Dorozhna Street towards the Greenhouse Farm, attempts were made by the enemy to “infiltrate” to establish a foothold there, as well as to break through from Berestok along road T-0504 towards the “Magistral” auto store and further towards the Kostyantynivka Technical School of the Luhansk National Agrarian University. So far, these attempts have been unsuccessful.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves carried out several counterattacks, both in the Berestok area and in the Illinivka area. Consequently, south of Heroiv Pratsi Street and in Illinivka, fierce clashes between small infantry groups of both sides have unfolded.
– In addition to these attempts, the forward units of the 8th Combined Arms Army likely tried to displace several Ukrainian infantry groups from their positions in the Ivanopillya area and further along the 3rd Army Corps’ strip, acting from the plantings located along the north shore of the Klebanbyk Reservoir. So far, in my opinion, not very successfully.
– In turn, the assault groups of the regiments of the 6th MRD of the 3rd AC are persistently trying to advance from the direction of Stupochky and Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne (mainly through the “Dachas”) to the southeast part of Kostyantynivka, where the enemy is likely trying to “gather” enough assault infantry for the next “breakthrough” toward the railway station.
The enemy is also actively using the forest between the “Margarita” cafe and the city cemetery to further increase their efforts in the eastern part of the city (evidently, both for a “breakthrough” to the north across the T-0504 road and to expand their presence in the eastern part of the city). For the same purpose, the enemy is quite active in the Novodmytrivka area, acting from the direction of Stupochky with the assault groups of the advanced units of the 72nd OMBR.
– In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a series of counterattacks in the southern and eastern districts of Kostyantynivka, in the Illinivka, Berestok area, as well as in the Chasiv Yar area. Their obvious goal was to stop the further advance of the enemy and restore the integrity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense system in this direction.
In many cases, they managed to achieve the desired result, although not completely. For example, it is clear that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to disrupt the enemy’s “immediate” breakthrough into the central (western) part of Kostyantynivka in the zone of their 8th ZVA, as well as maintain control over parts of Stepanivka and Illinivka, but in the east and southeast of the city, the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to slowly deteriorate. The enemy has evidently been able to expand the area of presence of their assault groups on the eastern outskirts of the city and to some extent has entrenched in its southeastern part.
3. Assessing the general prospects for the further development of the situation in the Kostyantynivka direction, it is likely worth making a few obvious conclusions, including:
– In reality, the troops of the left flank of the Russian UV “Yug” have essentially “bogged down” in the Kostyantynivka area. The entire advance of the Russian troops in this direction is currently measured exclusively in the range of 0–1 km per week, and this has been the case for over a month. In this sense, of course, one can argue about whether the Russian troops will capture Kostyantynivka by mid-summer, as some military experts claim, or not, but the fact of protracted combat in the Kostyantynivka area is obvious.
– It becomes clear that, operationally, the Russian command, in choosing the direction for their main efforts, favored not the Kostyantynivka direction but the Dobropillia (also known as Pokrovsk) direction, as the latter has more significant operational prospects. In case of their further successful advance there, the Russian command will be able to ensure a deeper operational encirclement of Kramatorsk not only from the south but also from the southwest, and to a greater operational depth.
– However, this does not mean that the enemy will soon cease active and intensive attacks/assault actions in the Kostyantynivka direction. After all, despite the prolonged battles for Kostyantynivka, the enemy’s need to stretch and distract Ukrainian reserves and forces before their advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk has not disappeared.
In my opinion, the essence of this matter lies somewhat in another dimension. It’s just that the command of the 8th ZVA, the 3rd AC, and those parts and units assigned to reinforce them will obviously have to rely primarily on their own forces and means, which themselves represent a kind of “mix,” collected from a number of armies and army corps today.
It is unlikely that they will see significant reserves in the near future, especially at a strategic level. It can be said that in this sense, the Russian command regarding the future “major” offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk preferred the “crane in the sky” of Dobropillia over the “bird in hand” of Kostyantynivka.
Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
