Escape the trap

Escape the trap
Rostyslav Pavlenko

The recent history of Ukraine, after the restoration of Independence, is filled with instances of rescue.

Sometimes semi-mystical — when it seemed all was against us.

Unfortunately, there are also missed opportunities and chances. These are often analyzed and described with interest. Our enemies build their strategy towards us on them.

But let us recall why we are still alive.

The ability to mobilize the active part of society. The ability to organize “horizontal” networks of mutual help. The ability, and even inclination, of most of the establishment to seek compromises and “peaceful” solutions within Ukraine.

It’s time to apply this to the current situation, as the possibilities of an inertial scenario (changing nothing and letting things be) are exhausted. The challenges of war, winter, and the global situation are growing. The quality of decisions by the current Ukrainian authorities is declining, and the personnel is degrading.

The motives of maintaining power and a monopoly influence on “flows” outweigh the tasks of survival and victory, hence the phenomenon of “wrong turns” in any situation, paradoxical, and sometimes harmful personnel, managerial and other decisions.

This is a trap.

Changing nothing is impossible. Because an inertial scenario will result in a negative and deadly situation.

But how to change?

By force? That would be a gift to the enemy. Because the support for “uprising” will not be comprehensive, the result (whatever it is) will not be universally recognized and legitimate, and thus everything will become even worse.

Through negotiations, speeches, persuasion? This is already being done and is part of the “change nothing” scenario. Because the authorities are not listening. They do not feel the need to listen.

By elections? By amending the law? This opens such a plethora of dangers that leaves this scenario purely theoretical.

First. Security issues. For the rashists, disrupting our elections will become the foremost task. There are enough missiles and drones.

Second. How to make these elections legitimate before Ukraine and the world? After all, elections are not only about the voting day. According to the Copenhagen Document of 1990 and other international norms, there is the mentioned security, equality of nomination, equal opportunities for campaigning, free, secret voting, counting, and control…

Can you imagine the scale?

In connection with this, third, Elections could turn into the reappointment of Zelensky. Opponents — following Poroshenko — with sanctions. Experts, journalists — mobilization. Instead of voting — “manipulation,” which Yanukovych would envy. Try to counteract all this.

By changing the Constitution? Directly prohibited during martial law. And “suspending” martial law will not work: the war will not wait for a lengthy procedure.

What other scenarios for change? Have I forgotten any alternative proposals? Write in the comments.

Therefore, the scenario of changes proposed for several years by both independent experts and “European Solidarity” remains.

The formation of a professional government (of rescue, unity, resilience, etc. – the epithet is not important, professionalism is), which would be independent of the Office of the President and rely on a “coalition of willing and able” in the Verkhovna Rada.

There is much talk about the (non)subjectivity of parliament – the minimum manifestation of subjectivity would be the formation of a group of 230+ deputies willing and able to work professionally, rather than just following orders.

In March 2022, the Verkhovna Rada worked on a consensus principle, but then the Russians were repelled and the fear subsided…

Why specifically the government?

Because it can be formed without changing legislation. Formed quickly. This is not a “coup,” but a change in the management format within the existing constitutional model.

Because the government controls finances, hence putting an end to “barriers,” “kickbacks to Moscow,” and “bags of cash.”

Because a government of professionals makes “good” and “excellent” decisions, not just “satisfactory” ones, in conditions of a perfect storm.

Because a government that relies on a “coalition of willing and able” in the Verkhovna Rada, firstly, does not need instructions from Zelensky and his Office of the President and, secondly, is under the cross-control of political forces, which now share responsibility, all in the same boat, and are interested in the result.

The obvious weaknesses of the model are Volodymyr Zelensky’s desire to maintain monopoly control over power and financial flows, and the reluctance of a critical number of leading “servants” to risk changes (for them, the status quo has not yet become intolerable).

Thus, the question of arguments for Zelensky and the “servants” that this scenario is saving and necessary.

In the asset – public opinion, civic action, continued work of anti-corruption bodies, position of partners.

The point of application of efforts – potential candidates for the presidency, government, and parliamentary positions after the elections, leading “servants” and key figures of the current establishment.

And for them, the challenge is to choose what they want to be a part of. Another “miraculous rescue,” of which the path to Ukraine’s revival and uplift is made? Or another failure, which will result from choosing comfortable enrichment “as if it’s the last day” instead of a responsible step towards a joint solution to the problems.

Society has its chance. Everyone must do their part to escape the trap.

How to do it?

I increasingly see in the feed a transition from despair or emotional appeals to finding a way out of the trap to not destroy the country. People of different views, backgrounds, and preferences increasingly say: “If only the parliament had subjectivity…”

In terms of concrete actions, not abstract categories, this translates to: if 226+ deputies were to begin acting according to the Constitution.

They would acknowledge the absence of a “monomajority.” Announce the dismissal of the “reshuffled chairs” government. Form a government where each position is filled by a professional who has the best experience, capabilities, and chance to handle the tasks in the best way. Not “satisfactorily” but “excellently with honors for an innovative approach.” Because that is how the military operates, and that is the standard we should uphold if we want to survive and win.

On the way, do not succumb to the pressure of Zelensky and those around him who wish to continue living and ruling in the old ways. Even to the point of defeat, but for their own satisfaction.

All the elements for such a decision are present.

1) In March 2022, the Verkhovna Rada worked by consensus, discussing issues in professional debates “without politics,” and it was very effective. It’s a pity that the fear subsided, and the monopoly returned.

2) At the end of 2025, under the pressure of NABU’s case and a situational convergence of interests around key individuals to Zelensky, Yermak, who seemed indestructible, was removed from his position.

3) In July 2025, under the pressure of growing protests and a firm stance from partners, the independence of NABU and SAP was restored.

4) In July 2026, seeing the protests that didn’t “disperse in three days” but gained momentum and realizing the need for changes in approaches at the front, the commander-in-chief and key military leadership were replaced.

5) Throughout 2025-26, a clear stance from partners forced a rejection of many harmful decisions and, conversely, the adoption of necessary ones. The fulfillment of obligations on the path to European integration is clearly outlined in the conditions for receiving funds. And not only in European documents, for example, regarding the Ukraine Facility, but also in ratified conditions by the Verkhovna Rada for providing 90 billion euros in “reparations credit.”

So, all the elements necessary for “subjectivity” and compelling it are not just on the table but have been successfully used multiple times.

However, these are just episodes, exceptions to the rule, which unfortunately consists of holding power through a monopoly on decisions and resources, avoiding any competition, particularly internal. Hence, the negative selection of personnel and the increase in loyal instead of professional individuals.

Earlier in this thread, scenarios were discussed on how to change the situation.

And “parliamentary subjectivity”—through a unity coalition, a professional government, and its actions as dictated by the times rather than orders and “stomping feet” from above—is the only constitutional, safe, and feasible solution.

But the most important question remains. Namely, HOW TO DO IT.

How to awaken motivation not even in 226+ deputies, but in a relatively narrow circle of individuals who influence the thoughts and decisions of these 226+.

I am often asked here—”why haven’t you done it yet?” We are in the process, but this is precisely what sets the ceiling. We are inside the process. With the possibilities we have, including 26 deputies of the Verkhovna Rada faction. Another 200 positions are needed. Ostensibly, about half of them are ready. The others look to those who will persuade, command, or formulate an excuse, bringing us back to the motivation of the “group of persons” at the top of power, at the foot of the throne.

This has always been the case, whether during the restoration of Independence, during crisis resolutions, or during the triumph of the Maidans. The majority, which was vehemently against the day before, “opened their eyes” and supported the decisions necessary for the state. Because they saw how their leaders adapted their positions.

Now we are on the verge of very significant challenges. This time they may exceed the current system’s ability to cope with them. Even more so, considering the degradation of the system, the loss or weakening of those capable of necessary actions.

Changes are needed—a growing number of people in various environments and “bubbles” recognize this. But for the establishment “dynasty,” this is not obvious. Their position is quite tolerable, and the sense of threat is not pressing.

And here arises the question of uniting the influencing factors discussed earlier.

Public opinion and the informational space. There’s enough work, communication, and coordination for everyone. Every day.
Civic activism and actions – there will be plenty of topics.
The work of anti-corruption bodies demonstrating what a “dynasty” is and disabling the tentacles of this octopus.
The stance of partners who see the dangers of the “dynasty” for Ukraine’s prospects in the war and in Europe, and pressures in their own political systems regarding the reduction of aid to an “inefficient, corrupt Ukraine.”

All of this lacks cohesion – at all levels.

That’s why this cohesion is stubbornly destroyed by the technologists and talking heads of the “dynasty.” Because unified action would be the end of the ruling regime. The funniest part – not for Zelensky personally (because adequate actions for uniting the society would actually benefit him). But he finds it more comfortable as it is.

However, for the country, it’s not just uncomfortable but increasingly dangerous.

While there is some time left, preserved at a high cost by our defenders, everyone should adopt a clear rule. Unite and act to strengthen defense, external support, and community protection. And against what weakens and destroys all this.

Before each action, honestly ask yourself if it strengthens or undermines the mentioned triad of Ukraine’s survival.

If you honestly answer this question, the specific actions will become surprisingly clear.

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