Historical alliances of Moscow continue to collapse. Today, one of the oldest and most symbolic strongholds of Soviet, and then Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere—the Cuban regime—is on the verge of a major breakdown. Amid unprecedented pressure from Washington, it’s becoming clear: Russia cannot stop the American operation against its Cuban ally and is effectively abandoning its long-time partner, limiting itself to mere formal diplomatic rhetoric.
The US administration, led by Donald Trump, has moved from a long-standing strategy of sanction-based deterrence to decisive steps aimed at the complete elimination of the communist enclave off its shores.
An energy blockade of the island, intensified by the fall of Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, has already led the Cuban economy to collapse and total blackouts. Now Washington openly declares its military-political intentions. Donald Trump has openly stated that the US aims to change the government system in Cuba, finally discarding previous diplomatic conventions.
The situation is rapidly evolving: the American leader stressed that “we will deal with Cuba very soon.” To confirm these words, the Pentagon has moved to demonstrate force, deploying a powerful carrier strike group headed by the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in close proximity to the island. We are witnessing not just a political gesture, but preparation for a real military operation, which Havana has no means to stop.
Realizing that the “big brother” from Moscow will not come to help has caused panic within the Cuban leadership. The regime, found in complete isolation, is trying to shift the burden of survival onto a population exhausted by hunger and shortages.
Residents of the Island of Freedom have begun receiving weapons, and the authorities are urging the population to prepare for a possible US invasion. The situation within the country has reached a breaking point. Against the backdrop of the deployment of American military power near the island, the government in Havana is calling on Cubans to brace for the inevitable foreign invasion.
In Havana’s state institutions, plans are being urgently discussed in case of emergencies. However, the attempt to distribute light firearms to civilians against the high-tech American army looks less like a defense plan and more like the agony and desperate gesture of a doomed leadership.
In this critical situation, the Kremlin’s position looks utterly helpless. While American destroyers encircle the island, all “support” from Russia has been reduced to producing meaningless paperwork within the walls of the Russian parliament.
Responding to the escalation, the Russian authorities managed only to issue another bureaucratic declaration. A draft statement was submitted to the State Duma regarding the intensification of the aggressive US policy towards Cuba.
In the document, the Russian side tries to appeal to international legal order, indicating that the US blockade of Cuba is interference in its internal affairs. The authors of the draft futilely attempt to express protest, noting that the deployment of a US Navy carrier group in the Caribbean is of particular concern, according to the draft resolution.
At this point, Russia’s real resources and capabilities are exhausted. Weakened by its own military ventures and severe international isolation, Russia simply lacks the economic potential or military capability to project power in the Caribbean Sea. The Kremlin is unable to send a fleet to Cuban shores or provide it with modern air defense systems.
Cuba has been cynically left alone with Washington. The entire long-standing rhetoric about “socialist brotherhood” and strategic partnership was nullified at the moment the US moved to real actions, proving that the security guarantees from Moscow are worth less than the paper on which the State Duma prints its statements.
