The likelihood of a Russian invasion of European countries is increasing. This is facilitated by the problems the American army is facing in Iran, as well as open disputes between the US president and European NATO members over their refusal to support the Americans in the Iranian operation.
And for organizing such an invasion, Russia does not necessarily need to end the war in Ukraine. In the current conditions, a Russian invasion of the Baltic countries could become part of the war against Ukraine, and Putin will propose exchanging the cessation of hostilities in Europe for the cessation of European support for Ukraine.
The foundation of the modern security system of European countries is NATO and the US army as its key element. America’s involvement in the Iranian operation, which is now only in its initial stages and has the potential to escalate, creates obvious constraints for its possible involvement in another war in Europe. And President Trump’s public insults toward European allies over their position on Iran increase the likelihood that the US will not want to engage in another war in Europe and help those who refused to support Trump himself.
In other words, throughout NATO’s history, there has hardly been a period when the organization was weaker than it is now. Meanwhile, Russia is at the peak of its military power: it has a million-strong army, a developed military industry, and actual combat experience in modern warfare. There are only two forces in the world capable of countering this—the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the US army. And the main risk for Europeans is that in the event of a Russian invasion, neither of these armies will come to help: one will be forced to defend its own country, the other will remain engaged in the war in Iran.
On Thursday, March 19, the Russian government registered a bill in the State Duma about the use of the Russian army abroad “to protect Russians.” Before this, the State Duma had only twice made decisions to deploy the army outside the country—in 2014 and 2022. And both times it resulted in an invasion of Ukraine.
Obviously, for Europe, there is only one reliable type of security guarantee—its own armies. The experience of the European Union shows that Europe is truly strong when it is united. Therefore, the creation of a united European army should become a key objective for all European countries in the near future.
Forming such an army based on the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not only give Europeans real combat experience necessary to protect their countries but also help end the war in Ukraine and truly guarantee that Russia will not be able or willing to repeat anything again.
Collage: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
