Sanctions on time. 03/15/2026

Sanctions on time. 03/15/2026
Volodymyr Omelyan

Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 15.03.2026.

1. Ukrainian drones attacked several targets in Russia during the night of March 15, including a major oil transshipment hub in the south of the country and energy infrastructure in Belgorod.

– Thirteen regions were affected. In Krasnodar Krai, a fire broke out at an oil depot near Tikhoretsk after debris fell. The facility is part of “Transneft” and is a component of the Tikhoretsk oil hub — one of the largest oil transshipment points in southern Russia. This same oil depot was attacked on March 12.
– Belgorod also suffered a missile strike. Energy infrastructure facilities were seriously damaged. The “Luch” CHP plant and other energy facilities might have been hit.

2. The Russian ruble fell to its lowest level in six months despite rising prices for Russian oil and partial easing of US sanctions.

– On Friday, the yuan exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose to 11.69 rubles — the highest since September 25. On the over-the-counter currency market, the dollar increased to 80.66 rubles (the highest level since January 6), and the euro to 92.47 rubles (the highest since January 12).
– Since the beginning of March, the ruble has lost nearly 5% against the yuan and about 4% against the dollar, marking a fourth consecutive week of decline — the first since last summer.
– The weakening of the Russian currency occurred after authorities decided to halt foreign currency sales from the National Wealth Fund to cover the budget deficit. On March 6, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced the suspension of currency interventions, which in recent months amounted to about $2 billion per month.
– Since the start of the full-scale war, liquid assets of the National Wealth Fund have decreased 2.5 times, and its foreign currency reserves have fallen to their lowest since the fund’s creation in 2008.

3. Air transport in Russia began to decline after two years of growth.

– By the end of 2025, passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased by 2.5%, marking the first drop after two years of growth.
– International transport increased by 1.6%, but their volume remains about 50% lower than in 2019.
– Meanwhile, domestic flights decreased by 3.8%, although they remain approximately 11% higher than pre-COVID levels.
– The main cause of the decline was the restriction of supply rather than a decrease in demand. Over the past four years, the fleet of Russian airlines has scarcely been updated with new aircraft, while existing planes increasingly require repair.
– Airlines are forced to raise ticket prices, which gradually makes air travel less accessible for passengers.

4. Bad debts of Russians exceeded 2.4 trillion rubles.

– By the end of 2025, the volume of bad debts in Russia exceeded 2.4 trillion rubles, increasing by a third over the year. This is evidenced by data from the Russian Central Bank. The share of such debts in the retail credit portfolio of banks rose from 5.7% to nearly 7%.
– At the same time, the total debt of the population to financial institutions increased by 1.1 trillion rubles over the year — to 38 trillion rubles.
– Bad debts are those loans whose return banks do not actually expect, so financial institutions are obliged to create reserves for them in the amount of 100% of the loan.
– The most significant deterioration was recorded in the category of unsecured consumer loans. The share of problem loans there rose from 9% to 13%.
– According to regulators, problems primarily arise on loans issued at the end of 2023 — early 2024, particularly to borrowers with a low credit rating or without a credit history.

5. The Russian agricultural sector is facing a sharp decline in agricultural machinery production.

– According to Russian statistics, in January 2026, the production of agricultural tractors decreased by 64% — to 265 units. At the same time, machinery sales fell by approximately 25%, causing factories to reduce production volumes.
– The problem is exacerbated by a chronic shortage of machinery. A year ago, the agricultural sector was short about 62,000 tractors and 34,000 combines. To operate effectively, the machinery fleet needs to be updated by at least 10% annually, but agricultural companies lack the funds for this.
– Financial pressure on the sector is increasing due to high interest rates on loans, export duties, and tax burdens. As a result, agricultural companies are reducing investments, particularly in the purchase of new equipment.
– The machinery shortage could directly impact yields, as the lack of equipment complicates sowing and harvesting campaigns. This poses additional risks for the country’s food stability.

 

Cover photo: Occupiers’ media

Автор