The American-Israeli-Iranian war has been ongoing for 8 days. People don’t want to talk about it loudly, but the conflict is already shaping up to be a prolonged confrontation and quite a regional war.
The Iranian regime’s determination to acquire nuclear weapons at any cost triggered a defensive response from the Americans and Israelis: the strengthening of a revisionist country in the world order with a nuclear bomb could become the most significant shift in the global balance of power since Moscow’s full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine. A nuclear Iran, which has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world (163 billion barrels) and also controls the maritime regime in the Strait of Hormuz, could become a center of influence in the world and significantly strengthen the positions of China and Russia.
The start of military operations by the US-Israel allied pair became the game-changer that radically changes the entire atmosphere in the world. The first and quite serious consequence of the confrontation between the leaders of the Western community and the Persians was the involvement of the Arab countries surrounding Iran in the war.
While western media circulate maps of Iran divided into a series of small states, including Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Turkmens, and Baluchis, after the elimination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, there are no clear signs of the collapse of the Shia fundamentalist regime. The activity of the anticlerical opposition does not have a distinct line of dominance, although the Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi has already announced the formation of a transitional government and is asking Arab countries to recognize its legitimacy.
The Arabs are in a state of confusion. Tehran’s desire to pressure Washington through missile and drone strikes on Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman is causing the already unstable region of the world to slide into a state of increased chaos. The Iranian regime itself is heavily suffering from missile attacks, but at the same time, it is working to disable the business and economic centers of the Arab world. Both Dubai and Kuwait, and Qatar, have significantly lost their investment attractiveness almost instantly and could quickly turn from important global capital movement pumps into deserted and uninhabited mirages of glass and metal.
The attempts of Arab countries to act as mediators between the main combatants are fruitless. Even after the elimination of most of the Iranian political leadership, Trump sees no point in opening a negotiation track. This means the war could drag on for weeks. Although Tehran’s nuclear program has been set back by missile and bomb strikes, the issue of changing power in Iran remains unresolved.
Trump’s and Netanyahu’s strategists take the position that the Iranian people have been given a chance for full liberation. An opportunity has arisen that hasn’t been there since 1979, and it’s necessary to take power into their own hands. In Israel, they say that further steps will be taken to destabilize the regime to ensure change.
The events surrounding Iran radically affect fluctuations in oil and gas prices due to the threats of disruptions in energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Beijing is particularly worried, as Middle Eastern oil is critically important raw material for maintaining the viability of its economy. Together with Venezuela, where Maduro’s dictatorship was overthrown in January 2026, Iran provided 18% of the oil consumed by the Chinese. Finding a replacement for such a massive share is a daunting task for China, which means the profitability of many types of Chinese businesses will decrease, and eventually, China may gradually enter a state of recession.
Active hostilities against Iran, despite their unpredictable outcome, have shown the significance of the military component in modern international relations, which are becoming increasingly fragmented, spontaneous, and less regulated.
Operation “Epic Fury” highlighted Iran’s military isolation. This is the essence of pragmatic alliances with the Chinese and Russians, which work only in stable circumstances, but only until things start to shake seriously.
