The war against Iran has already shocked the global economy, but how deep will this shock be? We explore the scenarios of events and the consequences for Ukraine.
American Special Military Operation
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began a war against Iran with the apparent intent of removing the current regime of the Islamic Republic in Tehran from power. To this day, we do not know what the outcome will be. Although the regime has suffered significant losses in the form of dozens of killed leading military and political figures led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the current government is still showing readiness to fight as long as necessary.
Iran is a country with a population of over 90 million and a vast territory. Due to its geographical location, Iran is capable of exerting significant influence on the global economy, particularly through the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Since no large-scale ground operations are currently planned against Iran and the expected internal uprising has not yet occurred, the Tehran authorities are not significantly threatened (here we are talking about the government as a whole, not about individual representatives).
No matter what the political plans of the US and Israel are, the war in the Middle East has already caused a shock in the energy market with consequences felt worldwide. Today, we will discuss two scenarios for the global economy and their impact on Ukraine.
Scenarios of Events
Although the situation is rapidly changing, the economic component of the war can be reduced to one question: how quickly will all this end? Are we talking about a few weeks or a long-term confrontation involving the entire region?
Scenario 1: The war against Iran ends within a few weeks
The aforementioned elimination of political leaders, depletion of weapon supplies, effective strikes on Iranian military targets… The damage could be sufficient for Tehran to quickly agree to a ceasefire. This may resemble the Venezuelan scenario, where formal power remains with representatives of the current regime, but they become loyal to Washington. Donald Trump has already spoken about his support for this kind of outcome.
In this case, Iran will quickly lift the blockade from the Strait of Hormuz. Its oil will return to the market. Tehran will effectively be removed from the axis of evil comprising Russia-Iran-North Korea-China.
This is the ideal scenario for everyone, including Ukraine. On one hand, Moscow will lose one of its strongest allies. On the other hand, sanctions might be lifted from Iranian oil, its production will increase — and consequently, the global price will decrease.
Globally, this will resemble the events of June 2025 — a brief increase in energy prices followed by a quick return to normal without long-term consequences.
Scenario 2: The war enters a prolonged phase
After the onset of hostilities, Donald Trump stated that the war might last 4–5 weeks or longer. Western press reported that the Pentagon anticipates fighting for several months, roughly until September. Iran’s actions, having already struck a dozen different countries, indicate readiness for a prolonged conflict.
In this scenario, both sides will start targeting not only military installations but also civilian infrastructure. In Iran, this may lead to increased regime popularity. Tehran will not only continue to block the Strait of Hormuz but will also encourage its proxy Houthis in Yemen to intensify terrorist activities against carriers in the Red Sea.
Twenty million barrels of oil per day (20% of global consumption) and over 100 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas per year passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Halting such a flow is a shock of historic proportions. From February 28 to March 6, the price of Brent crude oil rose from about $73 to $88 per barrel (over 20%) and will continue to rise.
This rapid increase in energy prices automatically means rising inflation worldwide, as producers immediately face higher transportation costs. Central banks will be forced to revise their interest rate policies upwards. This will lead to more expensive bank loans and a general decline in economic activity.
Of course, the US has prepared for such developments and has already announced plans to aid vulnerable oil carriers. Specifically, the American government will provide them with insurance services, and the US Navy will escort oil tankers in dangerous areas. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have reportedly agreed to increase oil production to slow price growth. On the downside, the US has eased sanctions on Russian oil, which India buys.
However, even with successful countermeasures, a large-scale war in the Middle East will be a major problem for the global economy. And this problem will only deepen with the war’s scale and duration.
Consequences for Ukraine
Ukraine is equally interested in swiftly removing the Iranian factor. We do not need oil prices to rise above $100 and remain there for a long time. On the other hand, the quick removal of Iran as a military-economic partner of Russia will be another blow to the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions (after Syria, Venezuela).
Since Ukraine largely depends on imports of gasoline and diesel, rising energy prices will lead, among other things, to increased transportation costs, planting campaign expenses, and military spending. Automatically, due to the transportation component, prices of goods in stores will rise. However, it’s worth noting that fuel prices in Ukraine are currently rising at a slower pace than in Europe. As of March 6, our increase was about 6 hryvnias per liter, whereas in Germany, for example, it was about 0.31 euros (16 UAH).
Another risk is food. The Middle East and North Africa are traditional markets for Ukrainian grain. Dangers in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf regions will increase insurance and freight costs for ships. Destabilization of importer economies may reduce their ability to purchase Ukrainian agricultural products.
Perhaps the greatest problem could be the redirection of Western resources to the Middle East. The US and the EU have limited stocks of Patriot missiles and other air defense systems, as well as artillery shells. A war in the Middle East would force allies to redirect some financial and military aid from Ukraine to support Israel or their bases in the region. The attention of global media and politicians will shift to the Middle East, which may complicate Ukraine’s lobbying for new support packages.
In any case, it is currently very difficult to predict the outcome. It could be positive for Ukraine and the world in the event of a swift end to the conflict and the fall of the Islamic Republic, or negative if the fighting drags on.
