Vasyl Korotkyi, Olha Tanasiichuk, Munich / Ukrinform
Currently, there are no signs that Russian aggression against Ukraine may end quickly, as the Kremlin shows no intentions of doing so, and the front is relatively stable. Meanwhile, pressure on the aggressor needs to be strengthened so that ultimately conditions are created where Putin is simply forced to stop, and Ukraine remains as an independent, sovereign, prosperous European democracy.
During the Munich Security Conference, which traditionally gathers leading politicians, diplomats, and experts from around the world, the topic of Russia’s war against Ukraine and peaceful ways to resolve it is once again in the spotlight. Within the framework of this large international event, Ukrinform’s correspondents managed to briefly talk with the former (in the first Trump administration) U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker. In the conversation, he explained why the peace process is not progressing, what to expect from negotiations in Geneva, and what security guarantees for Ukraine could be realistic.
PEACE TALKS ARE NOT ADVANCING BECAUSE RUSSIA FEELS NO INCENTIVE
– Mr. Volker, how do you assess the ongoing peace process to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, the next round of talks in Geneva, and what can you say about the situation on the front?
– First, the front line remains very stable. The Russians are conducting numerous offensive attacks, but they are unable to advance significantly and capture substantial Ukrainian territories. Meanwhile, they are losing an extraordinary number of military personnel on the battlefield. So this does not work in Russia’s favor. They continue the offensive, but it does not create any real advantage for them.
Secondly, because of this, Russia has intensified attacks in another way – striking Ukrainian cities and the civilian population, especially focusing on the energy infrastructure, trying to cause as much destabilization and suffering as possible during the winter. And here they have succeeded: a significant portion of the energy supply has been disabled, causing tremendous difficulties for the population. But this does not have strategic significance in the war – at least not yet. Over time, it may impact the economy or defense industry, but there has been no strategic breakthrough so far. It only causes much more suffering for the Ukrainian people.
Thirdly, peace negotiations are not progressing because Russia feels no incentive to end the war. Everything done so far is useful: the USA, Ukraine, and Europe have agreed on very important principles. We support the immediate implementation of a ceasefire. We have common economic and investment interests through Ukraine’s recovery funds. There is a readiness to provide Ukraine with security guarantees for the future after the ceasefire. Europe is prepared to form a Coalition of the Willing to deploy forces in Ukraine to deter Russian attacks – with certain support and backing from the USA.
So, many positive things have been done, but none of them affect Russia’s desire to continue the war. This is where the focus needs to be. Pressure on Russia must be increased for it to feel the need to agree to a ceasefire. This should be military pressure, including by providing long-range capabilities, as well as economic and financial pressure – so that the Kremlin’s income from oil and gas sales begins to dry up, and it cannot finance the war. This is the part we haven’t done – and we need to do it.
Lastly, this is more of an observation, but in my opinion, very encouraging: I see no other outcome of this war than the preservation of Ukraine as an independent, sovereign, prosperous European democracy. The question is only how long it will take and how much suffering will be endured to reach the final state. The West should not think about the risks of escalation with Russia or the final agreement – I do not think Putin will ever agree to a full-fledged peace agreement – but about how to accelerate the path to a stable ceasefire, preserving Ukraine’s independence, and helping it deter future attacks.
– Regarding military pressure and providing long-range capabilities – is it about European or also American?
– First of all, I describe the Trump administration’s approach. They want Ukraine to have its own capabilities first – to fight, deter, and defend its country. They want Europe to play a leading role in security in Europe, including Ukraine, and within NATO. It’s about a more balanced Alliance with greater European leadership. American capabilities will remain part of this system and support it, but the Trump administration wants to move away from the situation where the US was always the dominant force.
PRESSURE IS NEEDED ONLY ON RUSSIA
– Meanwhile, President Trump demonstrates dissatisfaction with both Russia and Ukraine, suggesting the possibility of increasing pressure on both sides…
– Indeed, that is exactly how President Trump sees and formulates it. The problem with this framework is that the war would already be over today if it depended on Ukraine. The reason the war does not end today is Putin. Therefore, there is no point in talking about the need to pressure both sides. Pressure is needed only on one side – Russia, because they are the ones refusing to stop.
– Will the US administration increase this pressure – particularly with sanctions or additional military support?
– I can only say that it is necessary to do this. I cannot predict what President Trump will do, but the pressure on Russia is the only factor that stands between him and achieving his goal – ending the war.
RUSSIA ATTEMPTS TO INFLUENCE THE U.S. WITH MONEY
– Could a proposal of 12 trillion dollars “advance” the situation?
– Proposed trillions! Obviously, it’s an absurd number. It doesn’t exist. But the very fact, the idea that Russia is waving money in front of Donald Trump and Steve Witkoff… Of course, that’s exactly what they’re doing. Naturally, President Trump wants to find a way to end the war to lift sanctions and return to doing business and making money. He has been very clear about that. But I don’t believe, firstly, that he (Putin) has such money, and secondly, that he (Putin) is serious about such deals. He (Putin) is just trying to use this as a way to influence our behavior.
– Does President Trump really believe that Putin wants peace, or is this rather a tactic?
– Well, he says he believes that Putin wants peace. I know that President Trump thinks so, and therefore he might say it to encourage such a development. He might say it because Putin told him so. And then he can repeat it, trying to make it true.
Or he might really believe it… And, you know, we will never know for sure.
– Regarding security guarantees for Ukraine – what exactly can the United States provide?
– I think this is already part of the negotiations: to provide a clear public commitment, including ratification by Congress, that after the cessation of hostilities, if Russia again initiates a conflict with Ukraine, it will lead to a military response from the U.S. and Europe. This is what should be the security guarantee. But this is on the condition that an agreement exists. Currently, there are only assumptions about a peace agreement.
– Do you think European countries will send multinational forces to Ukraine?
– I think so. They are waiting for a ceasefire.
– They are waiting for the American “backstop”…
– They know that the U.S. will provide support and “backstop” – this has already been conveyed. But they are waiting precisely for a ceasefire, and that has not yet been achieved because we have not created the conditions for Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
LONG-RANGE WEAPON PRODUCTION NEEDS TO BE SCALED UP
– Returning to long-range capabilities – Ukrainian production. How do you find the “Flamingo” missile?
– It is very important. Ukraine is capable of producing them. It is necessary to scale up production and make it economically feasible. I wish the U.S., Germany, and others acted faster and provided more substantial support on the issue of long-range systems. But it’s good that Ukraine is doing it independently.
– And regarding the latest events with Starlink and disconnecting Russian users…
– We’ll see how this develops. I think it’s good that they were disconnected. There are some reports that it had a certain impact on the battlefield. Hopefully, that’s true. We’ll see if the Russians can adapt to this or not. So far, the story of this war is one of constant adaptation. We’ll see if it has a significant impact or just a temporary one.
– Last question. If I understood correctly, we shouldn’t expect much from the next round in Geneva either?
– No, no, no.
Photo: Olga Tanasyichuk/Ukrinform
