Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 18.10.2026.
1. Ukrainian drones attacked an oil terminal, the “VKontakte” data center, and a bridge in St. Petersburg.
– Ukrainian drones attacked St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region on the night of October 18. Reports indicate multiple hits on the largest Russian oil product transshipment terminal in the Baltic, the “VKontakte” data center, a substation, and a cable-stayed bridge.
– The attack caused a fire at the oil facility and large-scale disruptions in digital services. A fire broke out on the territory of JSC “St. Petersburg Oil Terminal”, with reports of a tank park catching fire. The terminal’s capacity is 10–12 million tons per year, the total volume of the tanks is 441,000 m³, and there are over 30 of them. The complex’s area reaches 37 hectares. Damage to such a facility may create additional problems for Russian oil product logistics in the Baltic Sea.
– Ukrainian drones also struck the “VKontakte” data center (ICVA). After the attack, users reported large-scale failures in digital services and cloud platforms. The center’s designed capacity is 63 MW, with over 3,800 server racks, and the complex covers an area of 130,000 m². Near the data center is the 330 kV “Vostochnaya” substation. According to published footage, it may also have been hit. Reports of power outages in parts of St. Petersburg and the region followed.
– Another target was the cable-stayed bridge over the Korabelny Fairway — part of the Western High-Speed Diameter, a toll motorway connecting the northern and southern parts of the city. The 620-meter-long bridge connects Bely and Vasilevsky Islands and has eight traffic lanes.
2. The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation found problems in the Russian budget for 2027–2029.
– 86% of the expenditures in the open part of the Russian budget for 2027–2029 — 27.3 trillion rubles as of October 7 — did not have proper justification for calculations. At the time the project was submitted to the State Duma, 24.5 trillion rubles, or 77.1% of expenditures, were unjustified.
– The Accounts Chamber also could not reconcile some indicators with the document’s own parameters. The Russian Ministry of Finance forecasts a slowdown in inflation from 6.8% in 2026 to 4% in 2027, despite risks of the ruble weakening to 96 per dollar, the resumption of imports, and an increase in consumer demand.
– The budget is calculated based on oil at $50 per barrel, while the forecast price for Urals is $51–53. Even a slight deterioration in external conditions could exacerbate budget problems. Of the 1.47 trillion rubles of additional revenue planned for 2027, 1.33 trillion, or 90.4%, depend on decisions that had not been made at the time of budget preparation.
– Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance did not calculate the overall effect of revising income taxation in the groups of 2.4–20 million, 20–50 million, and over 50 million rubles per year.
– By the end of 2029, the Russian national debt is expected to rise to 24.1% of GDP, even though the previously approved limit was 20%. In September 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank raised the norm to 25%, effectively changing the limit to accommodate the projected debt growth.
– The Russian budget for the next three years relies on insufficiently justified expenditures, unmade tax decisions, and forecast figures that remain vulnerable to economic downturns.
3. Russia is centrally falsifying the coordinates of “shadow fleet” tankers to protect them from Ukrainian drones.
– Russian tankers in the Black Sea are using a coordinated scheme to fake geolocation in order to hide routes and make it difficult to track the vessels.
– At least 12 sanctioned tankers are reportedly using the same devices to transmit false coordinates, even when they are hundreds of kilometers away from the given location. In recent months, six tankers have simultaneously transmitted location data through two automatic identification systems (AIS).
– This created the impression that one vessel was in two places at once. This tactic was especially common when exiting the Black Sea through the Bosphorus, where Turkish authorities require the transmission of actual vessel coordinates.
– Although AIS signal spoofing has long been used to circumvent sanctions, the use of identical devices on multiple tankers is unusual. This may indicate increased control by Moscow over the oil fleet, which has been targeted by Western restrictions and Ukrainian attacks.
– According to the analytical company Windward, more than 80 vessels switched to the Russian flag between July and September. This is seen as a sign of Russia’s desire to increase control over maritime transport after European and British regulators imposed sanctions against nearly 700 tankers transporting Russian oil and gas over the past two and a half years.
– Windward estimates the “shadow fleet” consists of 1,229 vessels with a deadweight of over 20,000 tons. More than 75% of them are under US, UK, or EU sanctions.
– Switching to Russian flags and concealing coordinates help Moscow maintain export routes, but at the same time show how much its oil transportation depends on concealing activities and circumventing restrictions.
4. Trump’s decision to ease sanctions against Russia drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress.
– Donald Trump’s decision to suspend the implementation of a new sanctions law against Russia and Iran provoked a sharp reaction from both of America’s leading parties. US lawmakers accuse the President of concessions to the Kremlin and weakening pressure on Moscow during the war against Ukraine.
– Republican Don Bacon stated that Trump’s actions do not end the war but prolong it. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, one of the bill’s co-authors, accused the President of supporting Putin and the Russian war machine. According to him, easing sanctions has nothing to do with US national security.
– Democrat Don Beyer called Trump’s decision another concession to Putin, betraying Ukraine and contradicting Congress’s intentions to punish Russia for aggression. Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that the President ignores lawmakers’ demands to increase pressure on the Kremlin, allowing Russia to continue the war.
– Lindsey Graham’s law on sanctions against Russia and Iran, signed in September, provided for wide-ranging restrictions against Russia and countries purchasing its oil. The Trump administration explains the suspension of their application by the necessity not to hinder peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
– After Congress returns to work, legislators may attempt to revoke certain sanction relaxations and seek the full implementation of the restrictions provided by law. How decisive Congress’s reaction will be will become clear in the coming weeks.
5. The US proposes to restore the supply of Russian gas to Europe as part of a peace agreement regarding Ukraine.
– The Trump administration is promoting the idea of Europe resuming purchases of Russian gas as part of a peace package concerning Ukraine. US representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have discussed the possibility of resuming Russian gas transit through Ukraine with Kyiv and European partners.
– Washington hopes this will provide income to Kyiv and help lower energy prices for European consumers. European negotiators oppose this proposal, fearing a return to dependency on Russian gas and increased revenues for Moscow.
– The initiative is being discussed amid the easing of certain US sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on Russian diesel fuel. Possible economic incentives for the parties include US participation in gas revenues.
– Germany strongly opposes the resumption of supplies. Former Economy Minister Robert Habeck warns of the risks of renewed energy dependence and insists on Europe’s control over its own infrastructure. Meanwhile, in Germany, the Alternative for Germany party promises to reduce energy prices, using this issue in their political rhetoric.
– Ukraine ceased the transit of Russian gas in January 2025. The European Union plans to completely abandon Russian gas by 2027.
– The resumption of supplies could provide Russia with an additional market and revenue, while also challenging Europe’s commitment to reducing energy dependence on Moscow.
6. The EU will strengthen control over the Arctic due to Russia’s military activity and sabotage threats.
– The European Union plans to launch a satellite monitoring program for the Arctic to detect threats on land and sea, particularly related to the increased military activity of Russia. This initiative is part of the new EU Arctic strategy.
– The pilot program will expand the capabilities of the European satellite systems Copernicus and Galileo. The EU will also establish an “Arctic Cable Hub” to protect underwater cables, which are critical for essential digital services.
– In various regions, such cables have been targeted for sabotage related to Moscow, heightening concerns among European countries about the security of critical infrastructure. The updated strategy indicates the EU’s shift from a predominantly environmental and diplomatic approach to strengthening Arctic security.
– These changes have been accelerated by Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The previous strategy, adopted in 2021, focused on international cooperation, combating climate change, and protecting indigenous peoples. Melting ice is opening new shipping routes and intensifying strategic influence competition between Russia, the USA, and China.
– Meanwhile, Moscow is increasing its military ambitions in the region. The EU strategy draft notes that Russia is consistently restoring its military presence in the Arctic and using the region for transporting fuel subject to sanctions.
– This creates additional security risks and complicates Western efforts to limit Russian energy revenues. The EU plans to regularly hold Arctic summits and launch joint projects with regional partners.
– The new strategy aims to strengthen Europe’s capacity to counter threats to critical infrastructure and deter the growing Russian military influence in the Arctic. Its announcement is expected next week.
