Sanctions are timely. 10.06.2026

Volodymyr Omelyan

Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 06.10.2026.

1. Ukrainian drones attacked the largest oil depot in the Moscow region.

– On the night of October 6, Ukrainian strike drones attacked the Moscow region of Russia. After the attack, the Volodarsk oil depot near the settlement of Volodarsky and the village of Konstantinovo caught fire.
– The Volodarsk oil depot is a branch of Transneft – Upper Volga and one of the largest oil product storage facilities in the Moscow region.
– The station is a dispatch node for main oil product pipelines, particularly the Ryazan — Moscow system.
– According to local residents, two tanks caught fire after the strike.

2. The debts of Russians have reached a record 40.2 trillion rubles.

– The total credit portfolio of the Russian population at the beginning of September 2026 reached a record 40.2 trillion rubles. Since the beginning of the year, it has grown by 2.2 trillion rubles.
– Half of the retail credit portfolio consists of unsecured loans — credit cards and cash loans. The share of problematic unsecured loans has reached about 13%.
– The increase in debt occurs under conditions of high rates, which increases the burden on borrowers and risks for banks. In the event of a worsening financial situation for the population, this could lead to further growth in overdue debts and bank reserves.
– The record debt portfolio indicates an increasing dependence of Russian consumption on loans. This creates additional economic vulnerability: the high cost of loans limits demand, and the rise in problematic credits could intensify pressure on the banking system.

3. A record number of Russian companies in 17 years may declare a bond default.

– More than 50 Russian companies this year may default on bond obligations due to worsening economic conditions.
– Since the beginning of the year, at least 30 companies have already missed bond payments, 20 of them for the first time. Only a few companies managed to make payments after technical default. It is estimated that in 2026 Russian companies delayed payments totaling 41 billion rubles compared to 34 billion rubles the previous year.
– The number of bond defaults has already reached its highest level in the past decade and may become the highest in 17 years. In 2009, after the global financial crisis, over 100 Russian companies failed to meet bond obligations, with the total problematic debt amounting to nearly 200 billion rubles.
– Currently, the number of companies with defaults is approaching the 2015 level, when 52 companies violated debt obligations following sanctions imposed over the annexation of Crimea. Back then, issues were exacerbated by falling oil prices, a sharp ruble depreciation, and interest rate hikes by the Central Bank.

4. Russia paid record subsidies to oil companies after refinery attacks.

– In September, the Russian budget paid 305.5 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) in compensation to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market. This is the largest monthly payout since April 2022.
– The dramatic increase in subsidies is linked to the reduced operation of Russian refineries following Ukrainian drone strikes. Enterprises are forced to conduct large-scale unscheduled repairs, and the government is increasing financial support to maintain fuel supplies within the country.
– In September, the amount of compensation nearly equaled the net revenues of the oil sector to the budget — 305.5 billion versus 323.3 billion rubles. It is calculated that since the beginning of the year, such payments exceeded $14 billion.
– The problems of Russian oil refining are becoming increasingly costly for the budget. The state is compelled to allocate significant funds to support refineries and the domestic fuel market instead of receiving full returns from the oil sector.

5. Putin signed a decree on the sale of part of UniCredit’s Russian business.

– On October 5, Putin signed a decree allowing the Italian banking group UniCredit to reorganize its Russian division and sell part of the business to a private investor from the United Arab Emirates. The deal is set to be a major step for the bank in reducing its presence in Russia.
– UniCredit plans to split its Russian business into two parts. The payment business will be spun off into a new structure, which will remain wholly owned by UniCredit, while the rest of the Russian bank will be sold to the UAE investor. The deal amount is undisclosed. The sale is planned to be completed in the first half of 2027 after finalizing the agreement and obtaining the necessary permits.
– Exiting Russia will be costly for UniCredit. The bank estimates the total negative impact of the transaction on financial results at €3–3.3 billion. Of this amount, €1.6–1.8 billion relates to the write-off of accumulated foreign exchange reserves. This part is non-cash and does not affect the bank’s capital.
– UniCredit agrees to a multi-billion negative financial impact to exit most of its Russian business. After the transaction, the bank plans to retain mainly international payments in Russia.

6. Hong Kong imported a record volume of Russian gold after Western sanctions.

– From January to July 2026, Hong Kong imported a record 112.7 tons of Russian gold. This already surpasses the entire 2025 figure of 92.1 tons and is dozens of times the level in 2021, when imports were only 3.3 tons.
– Russian gold accounted for nearly 15% of Hong Kong’s gold imports compared to 0.6% in 2021.
– After the full-scale war by Russia against Ukraine began in 2022, Western sanctions and the decision of the London Bullion Market Association not to accept gold from Russian refineries effectively closed the London market to Russian gold. Prior to this, from 2019 to 2021, about two-thirds of Russian gold output was directed to the UK.
– Meanwhile, China has not imposed sanctions on Russian gold, so a significant portion of the supply has shifted to Asia via Hong Kong. The city is striving to strengthen its role as a hub for storage, settlement, and trading of gold and is competing for this status with Singapore.
– Demand for gold in China remains high. Chinese households are actively buying the metal, and the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by more than 40 tons in the first half of 2026.

7. South Korea sent over 176,000 tons of fuel to Russia, part of it via sanctioned tankers.

– In July and August, over 176,000 tons of fuel, mainly diesel, were sent from South Korean ports to Russia. It was transported by seven tankers, which in total made 14 trips to Russia’s Far East.
– Three of the seven vessels are under sanctions by the UK and the EU. One of the sanctioned tankers received about 26,000 tons of fuel through a ship-to-ship transfer near the South Korean port of Yeosu.
– Supplies from South Korea occur against the backdrop of a sharp increase in Russia’s need for imported fuel due to drone strikes on oil refineries by Ukraine. According to Kpler, in August, Russia imported 368,000 tons of petroleum products by sea — more than seven times the amount in July, and the highest since the start of the full-scale war. South Korea accounted for 112,000 tons, or 31% of this volume.
– Buyers of the fuel included “Rosneft” and NNK. At the same time, South Korean port documents did not specify who owned the fuel or who sold it.
– The shipments likely do not violate South Korean law, as the sanctions on the mentioned tankers were imposed by Western countries.
– However, the use of such vessels to supply fuel to Russia creates a risk of circumventing sanctions and weakens Western pressure on the Russian economy.

8. Turkmenistan strengthens air defense with Chinese systems amid the diminishing role of Russia.

– Turkmenistan has bolstered its air defense forces with Chinese mobile systems FK-2000, indicating an increasing Chinese presence in the Central Asian arms market, where Russia previously dominated.
– During the military parade in Ashgabat on September 27, at least 10 FK-2000 vehicles and other Chinese military equipment were spotted. The system combines missiles and twin 30-mm cannons, equipped with radar and electro-optical sensors. It is designed to combat aircraft, helicopters, drones, and precision-guided weapons.
– The FK-2000 was developed by the Chinese state corporation CASIC. Amidst Russia’s war against Ukraine and the reduced availability of Russian military equipment, Central Asian countries are increasingly diversifying their arms purchases.
– Meanwhile, China is strengthening its position as a supplier of military equipment for the region.

 

Pictured: Chinese FK-2000 air defense system in the service of Turkmenistan. September 27, 2026. Frame from the parade broadcast

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