Information on current Russian losses due to sanctions as of 24.09.2026.
1. The Russian budget in 2026 may fall short by almost 1.6 trillion rubles in revenues, predicts the Russian Accounts Chamber.
– The main issue is the sharp lag in oil and gas revenues from the plan. According to auditors, oil and gas revenues will amount to about 7.3 trillion rubles — 1.6 trillion, or 17.9%, less than planned.
– From January to August, the Russian budget received 25.9 trillion rubles in revenues, or 64.4% of the annual plan. Oil and gas revenues amounted to only 5 trillion rubles — 56.3% of the planned volume.
– The Accounts Chamber cites the strengthening of the ruble as the main reason for the shortfall in oil and gas revenues. The average dollar exchange rate in the first half of the year was 76.3 rubles against the budgeted 92.2 rubles. As a result, Russian oil brought in less ruble revenue.
– The average price of Urals in January–June, conversely, was higher than the budget forecast — $67.9 compared to $59 per barrel, but this was insufficient to compensate for the strong ruble.
– Meanwhile, budget expenditures are increasing. By July 1, the budget allocation was increased by 938 billion rubles — to 45 trillion rubles. As a result, the projected budget deficit increases by another 2.3 trillion rubles — to 6.1 trillion rubles.
2. Russia cannot restore oil refining capacities damaged by Ukrainian strikes.
– In August, oil product production decreased by 1.9% compared to July, and the annual drop was 17.8%, reported Rosstat. This was the third consecutive month of declines approaching 20%. In July, production was 19.3% lower than the previous year, and in June, the drop reached 21.7% — the worst figure in at least 21 years.
– From January to August, oil product output decreased by 10.3% compared to 9.2% at the end of January–July. The fuel shortage has already affected prices: since the beginning of the year, gasoline in Russia has increased by 21%, diesel fuel by 15%.
– Authorities were forced to ban the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, increase imports, and allow the sale of gasoline of outdated Euro-2 and Euro-3 standards.
– At the end of August, Russian refineries were producing only about 70% of the gasoline needed for the domestic market. Despite import restrictions and attempts to maintain supply, the shortage persists.
– According to the International Energy Agency, in the first eight months of 2026, major Russian refineries were attacked by Ukrainian drones on average once every three days. Of the 32 largest plants, only five avoided strikes — all in the Far East or Eastern Siberia. On September 20, after another attack, the Moscow refinery completely halted production.
3. The Russian authorities are preparing a new tax increase amidst budget deficit and rising war expenses.
– The Russian Ministry of Finance submitted a package of amendments to the Tax Code to the government. Taxes on interest on deposits, dividends, securities transactions, and property sales are proposed to be raised to 22%. The changes could affect about 4 million Russians.
– For large businesses, a tax on “excess profits” is planned — 30% for non-ferrous metals and fertilizer producers and 20% for gold mining companies.
– It is also proposed to introduce a 22% VAT on purchases in foreign online stores and a customs duty on overseas parcels up to €200.
– According to the Russian budget project, in 2027-2029 the deficit will be about 2% of GDP annually, with priorities being defense spending and support for military personnel and their families.
4. In Russia, the disposal fee on cars will be raised again from January 1.
– Rates will increase by 10–20%, and for powerful cars, the fee will amount to $47,000–94,000. Meanwhile, the Russian budget is not meeting revenue targets: about $3.7 billion was collected in eight months — only 20% of the annual plan.
– The expected shortfall is estimated at $4.6–5.8 billion.
– Amidst this, the Russian car market is shrinking: in the first half of 2026, about 610,000 new cars were sold compared to 719,000 in the same period of 2024.
5. “Rosneft” provided over $2 billion in foreign currency for the A7 payment network, which Russian companies used for international transactions circumventing Western sanctions.
– A7 is a payment network supported by Moscow through which Russian companies conducted international payments after the sanctions intensified.
– Traders associated with “Rosneft” were among the largest suppliers of currency for the network. According to documents obtained by FT, “Rosneft” traders made 138 dirham transfers to companies associated with A7. In exchange, they received rubles in Russia.
– Overall, A7 received export proceeds in dirhams from 16 companies associated with “Rosneft”. FT also found about 200 shell companies used for international payments on behalf of Russian clients.
– According to A7 internal documents, in June 2025, two-thirds of the company’s formed currency reserves came from Coral structures, and “Rosneft” was one of the key sources of currency.
– Meanwhile, A7 discussed “Rosneft’s” plans to release $12 billion placed in yuan. “Rosneft” was fully included in the U.S. sanctions lists only in October 2025.
– A7 documents show that the state oil company played a significant role in providing foreign currency for the network for international settlements for Russian companies up to that point.
6. The United Kingdom will maintain sanctions against Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman despite the EU’s decision to lift the restrictions on them.
– Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Andy Burnham told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he disagrees with the EU’s decision. During a meeting in New York, Burnham also emphasized that Britain will not lift sanctions against Usmanov and Fridman and that Ukraine’s allies must continue the sanctions pressure on Russia.
– On Tuesday, the EU extended sanctions for another three years against nearly 3,000 Russian businessmen, politicians, and companies, but at the same time excluded Usmanov and Fridman from the sanctions list.
– France insisted on lifting sanctions against Usmanov, and Luxembourg against Fridman.
– The decision caused dissatisfaction among EU countries advocating for increased pressure on Russia. Latvia tried to block the lifting of sanctions but eventually abstained during the vote.
– For Britain, this means maintaining restrictions against the two Russian billionaires, while the EU, after extending the overall sanctions regime, decided to make an exception for them.
7. Danish military intelligence warned that Russia will intensify its hybrid war against NATO countries in the coming months.
– According to intelligence estimates, attacks and sabotage in the West will become more frequent, and their consequences for the affected countries could be more severe, including the risk of human casualties.
– In a new threat assessment, Danish intelligence notes that in the coming months, Russia may step up sabotage, influence operations, and other hybrid attacks against NATO countries. Meanwhile, Danish intelligence does not expect a significant breakthrough by Russia in the war against Ukraine in the near future. However, it considers it extremely unlikely that Putin will abandon the main goals of the war.
– The report also mentions a low but growing risk of a limited military attack by Russia on one or more NATO countries bordering Russia. Such a scenario, according to the assessment, may include long-range weapon strikes on critical infrastructure or a limited insertion of unmarked troops.
– At the same time, a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country is considered extremely unlikely by Danish intelligence, although such a scenario is not entirely ruled out.
– Danish intelligence also confirmed a previous assessment that Russia could pose a real threat to several Baltic region countries over the next two years. Approximately in five years, according to the department’s estimation, Russia may be prepared for a large-scale war in Europe.
– Denmark’s warning came amid increased attention from European countries to Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace violations, and other hybrid operations.
