Putin and his accomplices’ lamentations about the “root causes” of the war, statements about “betraying grandfathers and great-grandfathers” if the fire ceases on the existing LBS, and the failures of all hopes and calculations regarding “negotiations” and “peace initiatives” repeatedly prove what was known from the start: Putin will not stop the war of his own will.
He has his own logic, based on irrational belief but relying on Russia’s capabilities and the “weaknesses,” as he sees them, of democracies.
Can’t capture Donbas by 2026? Well, then it will happen later, even up to 2036.
Europe helps Ukraine? Well, then Russia will sow chaos and spend billions on “fifth columns” on the continent.
Ukrainians continue to resist? Then there will be expanded terror in rear communities, intensified information processing of Ukrainians, and new means of destruction will be used: bombs, missiles, drones.
Are resources sufficient? Due to a lack of direct information, experts’ conclusions are indirect and have significant error margins. Forecasts abound that Russia will surely fall next year. But years come and go, and Russia withers, yet continues to persist. “To smolder for up to a hundred years,” as they call it.
So what to do? It depends on Ukraine’s actions. Because Russia will act as long as it can. Our task is to make it unable to continue.
Traditionally, there are three scenarios.
Inertial – if nothing changes. This is about “smoldering.” Russia simply has more means to maintain the current level of pressure and to break our resistance capabilities. If the government in Ukraine continues to take the wrong turns, weakening the country, inertia will sooner or later degenerate into a negative scenario.
Negative scenario – this is a failure achieved by Russia. Exhaustion of the front, undermining support for Ukraine, provoking a socio-economic catastrophe. They work on this. And the lamentations about readiness for “eternal war” are part of this scenario. Sowing disbelief and hopelessness in the struggle are also weapons. This scenario can be averted by accelerating the depletion of the aggressor’s resources. Because at the current level, their system is still capable of supporting the war and regenerating. Hoping to outlast us first. The Ukrainian government’s duty is to transition to the optimistic scenario by any means.
The optimistic scenario means destroying the rashists faster than they can replenish, ruining their economy faster than recovery, and tightening sanctions faster than evasion. This means increasing the provision for the Defense Forces, strengthening diplomacy, and fortifying community protection. Such is the simple matrix for evaluating government actions.
A simple question – does any decision contribute to this, or does it hinder?
But the ruling “dynasty” thinks in other categories. They have their own matrix. Does any decision strengthen the monopoly on power and resource distribution or weaken it?
And therein lies the conflict of interest. Because the “dynasty” believes that as long as there is a war, “everything will somehow work out,” money “will be given anyway,” and Ukrainians will endure everything. But for the nation’s survival and victory, it should be indifferent whether those in power are comfortable or hold a monopoly. Moreover, since a monopoly reduces the system’s flexibility and efficiency, it is harmful.
The government in Ukraine is playing a dangerously gambling game. Will the nation’s resilience resources and allies’ patience and interest be enough to stand longer than Russia? If instead of strengthening, the country’s capabilities are weakened?
Where is the benefit of this gamble for the country?
Without the possibility of a legitimate (widely recognized) change of the president, we instead have a fully constitutional mechanism for changing the management format.
The formation of a government of salvation from professionals. Breaking the “dynasty’s” monopoly, utilizing all resources and opportunities to stop the enemy (in the optimistic scenario – with the subsequent dismantling of the empire) and moving towards the country’s revival.
This will require informational, public, and anti-corruption levers.
It won’t be easy – due to the inherently conflicting interests with the “dynasty.”
But there is too much at stake. Because the chips under the “dynasty’s” gamble on “it will somehow be okay” are rapidly depleting.
Photo: OPU
