It seems that four and a half years of Russia’s major war against Ukraine and 12 years of conflict between the two countries provide a clear answer to this question: no, Russia does not have those resources. But can we consider that Putin doesn’t understand this?
The President of Russia is waging a more complex war against Ukraine. Crimea or Donbas in such a war are platforms for attacking territory controlled by the legitimate government of Ukraine and a pretext for continuing the war.
The proposal to withdraw troops from part of the Donetsk region controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine logically fits into this strategy. Do you know what will happen if the Ukrainian government agrees to such terms or, say, the Russian army manages to establish control over all of Donbas? The Russians will start creating “buffer zones” to ensure the security of the “new territories,” continue holding referendums on joining in these “buffer zones,” and demand, demand, demand.
By 2022, two main goals of the Russian leadership could be clearly defined alongside the occupation of significant Ukrainian territories and a change of power in Kyiv. This includes the destabilization of Ukraine and the creation of conditions for a major migration crisis in Europe. Putin well remembered how, amid the civil war in Syria and the appearance of millions of migrants from the Middle East in Europe, the ratings of parties close to Kremlin “values,” the ultra-right ones, began to rise like yeast. And they wanted the same outcome with Ukraine as with Syria.
A few months after the start of the major war, it could be stated that these calculations failed. Ukrainians rallied to defend the state. Europeans hospitably accepted refugees with children. The crisis did not happen.
But the calculation for a long-term war of attrition is precisely related to achieving over time what could not be achieved immediately. That Russia will endure, but the enemy’s patience will run out. And now we see the first elements of this devilish Kremlin plan being realized.
We see panic moods appearing among some people in Ukrainian society — against the backdrop of constant ballistic missiles, which there is nothing to shoot down, and the realization that the end of the war is still far away. And this is not only a successful calculation by the Russian authorities but also a serious miscalculation by the Ukrainian ones.
In Kyiv, the hope for a quick end to the war was perceived as a kind of drug that could calm society and prevent its demoralization. But the effect of any drug, any sedative, eventually ends.
This is what happened now — perhaps not only due to missiles but also due to the unsuccessful personnel decisions of President Volodymyr Zelensky. And here’s the paradox: those who have understood serious problems with Zelensky’s ability to lead the country in war since 2019 are tirelessly reminding now about the legitimacy of the current president and the importance of trusting him until the war ends. And those who treated Zelensky as an icon are busy seeking new icons — which, obviously, is not the time.
Migratory issues also increase — and this is natural. After all, even the protection of Ukrainians introduced in 2022 was temporary — and here it turns out that this is only a euphemism that hides practically the permanent residence of Ukrainian citizens in EU countries. Well, now let’s imagine a wave of departures in the winter period. Or try to understand why the European taxpayer should maintain not only women with children but also men who illegally reach Europe, trying to neglect their constitutional duty.
So, can Putin not win the “real” war but succeed in destabilizing Ukraine and the West? Yes, the Russian president gets chances when we don’t want to tell the truth to ourselves and people. When Ukrainian leaders continue to talk to compatriots not as defenders of the homeland but as future voters — even if no one knows when the war will end and elections will take place in the foreseeable future. When European politicians try to reassure their citizens even when missiles and drones from Russia land on their territory, convincing them that their territory is not a target, but an accident. When in the United States, they still cannot realize that Russia’s war against Ukraine is part of a global “special operation” for America’s weakening.
Those who fear honesty and an adequate assessment of reality open the way to lies and Putin.
