Yesterday’s post unexpectedly revealed a whole layer of problems that are increasingly widespread among Ukrainians. In principle, a joke that needs explaining shouldn’t be explained, but this is definitely not a joke. And it turns out, I need to explain something I thought most readers already understood. But, unfortunately, that’s not the case. Emotions still take over.
I’ve been doing these analyses for you for more than half a year. Our impressions, Russian attacks, processes, and military operations. I have broken down complex things into simple words many times, believing that by now you understand certain things much better. Such as analysis and critical examination of situations. Critical, dry, and even cold-blooded, where emotional, strategic, and pragmatic aspects should not be confused.
When I presented my arguments against the spontaneous, emotional attack on our logistics hubs as a first response for Wildberries, you emotionally attached our Ukrainian losses, the absence of our ballistics, and even fabricated my corruption. You made me the enemy, not the Russians, for their ballistic attack.
In principle, I understand your emotionality. Not everyone can think and analyze like I do. I quickly piece together all the puzzles and examine situations from different angles. That’s why I conduct analyses and share my thoughts with you, not the other way around. It might sound harsh, but in your emotionality, lack of understanding of processes and consequences of your hatred, you want to harm me emotionally. I am closer than some ephemeral Russians launching rockets at us. And you pour your anger, driven by emotions, onto me.
Emotionally, you won’t harm me. I’ve been in the army for a long time, survived the war, and became thick-skinned. Not only because of my size 😉.
Therefore, I didn’t offend anyone in return (over two hundred comments, mind you), and I want to explain once more that emotions and rationality are fundamentally different things. And I always stand by rationality. Therefore, I explain processes you might have thought about but didn’t emotionally piece together at the right moment.
Emotional impact and strategy.
If you have a plan for a month (men usually don’t plan longer in such cases), means, and appropriate personnel, you have a clear distribution for each attack, the number of means, reserves, vehicles, and people. Everyone must know and understand where, what, and when to carry/transport/fly.
Strategically, our Defense Forces, every service, department, and ministry have similar planning. Targets, amounts of means, and resources. You can’t plan to hit ONE oil refinery or Wildberries warehouse EVERY DAY if you don’t know how many drones you have. SSO, GUR, SBU, SZR, DPSU – all have means, work on designated targets on different days, but according to a strategic plan, they have a DAILY impact on targets. Different ones. But clearly planned. Logically, you understand everything so far?
And if the roosters have planned 300 missiles per month, and they are making them according to the plan this last month: every 3-5 days, a small ballistic attack of 5-8 missiles, every 10 days, a large ballistic attack of 20-30 missiles, and twice a month a large combined attack with cruise and ballistic missiles of 70 missiles. EVERYTHING IS PLANNED — missiles, people, machines, ships, and planes.
On August 1st, a large ballistic attack with over 20 missiles, and just a few days later another large attack on logistics warehouses — that is definitely an emotional attack, which will lead to the failure of the entire plan for the month. This means the missiles for this attack were taken from other attacks. This means small attacks will shift, and instead of 8 days until the next large one, it will be 14-16 days.
If they brought Korean missiles, they could have made a bigger salvo, but it remained standard — 24 missiles. If they had 100+ missiles, why not make a salvo of 40 missiles? Finish off the remaining warehouses and hubs? Exactly. Emotionally, by command, they disrupted all plans.
We remained true to the plan. If we emotionally launch not 300 but 500 drones on Moscow, we will leave other targets, which were according to the plan, without means. So do the roosters — emotional, unplanned 28 missiles on logistics hubs left other military targets in Ukraine without means of destruction. Now, is it clearer why strategically we have the initiative, and the enemy responds in a non-strategic way? I hope this helps you better understand the processes and reduces the misunderstanding and hate towards me. I just understand these processes better.
Regarding victims, the failure to shoot down ballistics, and the absence of our ballistics. I am not to blame for this! I am just explaining the logic of the processes happening in the higher headquarters and offices.
There will always be victims. Yes, I say this cold-bloodedly, because thinking and understanding — it’s not emotional. There are victims at the front, in traffic accidents, they are everywhere, not only after Russian ballistic attacks. I’m not diminishing the quality of deaths, they are all different, just how you relate to them. And this is again emotion, not reason.
Just remember 2022, 2023, 2024, and the past winter. We generally did not shoot down such a percentage of Shaheds, X-22 missiles were fired like ballistics now. Clenching our teeth, we survived tons of grief and somehow had more reason. Now I see more emotion. But when you realize that ordinary Russians are experiencing the same increase in emotion and hate towards their armed forces, we are doing the same as they are. We are outraging the population, reducing economic and military potentials. This is a full existential war of attrition, and who will fall first. The economy, the front, the armed forces, or the population. We have no other choice: either we stand, or Russia falls.
| I try to explain to you as best I can. And I understand your emotion after the terrible shellings. But try to engage a bit more reason. And believe me. I have no orders or directives to conduct such work with you. It is my own initiative, and I might get in trouble for this self-direction (I have been serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for more than 20 years if someone forgot or did not know 😉 .
Just let’s hold together as a whole, as I say at the end of each broadcast. I believe that most Ukrainians will understand what I have written in these two posts. Those who do not understand, I will try to explain further in the comments. |
P.S. The video shows our work on the Yaroslavl Refinery. This is the TENTH hit on it, and it still tries to operate. With reduced capacity, but such a giant needs to be shut down. It was among the Top 5 refineries in the region, producing 15 million tons of oil per year. This is our strategic target, being systematically worked on.
We are quietly heading in the right direction 🙂
