I wanted to write a brief analysis of yesterday’s ballistic attack, but there’s more to it than just 31 missiles overnight.
Yes, we don’t have enough PAC-3 Patriot missiles (we need 300-400 a month). There’s nothing to analyze here, so only one missile out of 31 was shot down. Zircons were spread over two regions for the first time, adding Rostov, which is a first. This means they’re afraid of concentrating two launchers in one region, so there were 2 missiles per region.
The day before yesterday, I already wrote that according to all my analyses, there should have been ballistics preceding the fourth wave of cruise missiles in the western regions of Ukraine. It’s inappropriate to carry out such a combined attack with just 6 ballistic missiles. And only last night did I understand their logic.
Red folders
The forms and dates of reporting. On July 29-30, reports were already made to the chief, indicating that more than 350 missiles of different types were launched at Ukraine, and this same red folder states that this is MORE than last month. The chiefs reported that the scale, number of targets, and launched missiles are increasing.
And so, the ballistic attack of 31 missiles was postponed to yesterday. Look at the calendar β yesterday was the 1st. Bingo π.
To launch more missiles in a month, they needed to launch 70 missiles, and they can’t launch that many ballistics simultaneously overnight. So they raised strategic aviation and launched missiles at the western regions. The folder must also contain a report on covering the entire territory of Ukraine. Not just Kyiv.
The month has started, the second month of the quarter. September is supposed to be the most intense in terms of bombardments. Now, for at least two weeks, there should be no major cruise missile attack. In 3-4 days, they will launch 6-8 ballistics, followed by a large ballistic attack of 25-30 missiles. Everything is cyclical, as they did in July. Red folders will still not be canceled for many decades.
Now about the windows of opportunity. Ours and theirs
When the Hornets appeared in June, the work of the corps and brigades on logistics began. We started closing off Crimea and creating queues at gas stations. This was our window of opportunity. Now they have restructured the processes, queues have disappeared, and even prices have started to fall. Crimea still suffers. But most importantly, our window is gradually closing. Therefore, after ten days of work on the Wildberis warehouses (I previously explained why it is so important for the swamps), we returned to working on the refineries. It was ongoing, but now there are renewed strikes on the largest ones. This week, I think Omsk and Tyumen will suffer again. Ryazan and Samara received greetings, but it must be done again. Yesterday, Bashkortostan received a hit.
It is also likely that their refineries carried out repairs of their primary ATU units incomparably quickly (according to some experts) not in months but in weeks, because they ALREADY had such units purchased. Not because of sanctions will they look for and repair them for months, but they already had them. Firstly, EVERY refinery is built, expanded, and developed. Each subsequent ATU unit becomes larger in processing volume and receives a higher number in the name. That is, they definitely had some units ready, and therefore repairs/replacements were carried out much faster.
Conclusion: Only systematic and continuous work around all refineries will yield the appropriate result. Not a one-time, three-week queue, but a strategic fuel shortage for them.
Regarding logistics in the near rear and the capabilities of our middle strikes, they are also not standing still. Increasing MVG, camouflaging fuel trucks, increasing complexes against the work of our starlinkers. They are doing all this, and our window is gradually narrowing. Here, speed of work and adaptability against their countermeasures are needed again.
Their window of opportunity with Kinzhals, Shaheds, and cruise missiles has closed. For the first, we no longer even need Patriots, we influence them by other means. For the second, we have maximally expanded the variety of interceptors. They haven’t launched 600 Shahed attacks for a long time. Their downing hasn’t dropped below 90% for a long time. Regarding cruise missiles, it’s even more upsetting. Their X-101 missile is the most technologically advanced β flying in terrain folds, having a bunch of autonomous systems, and it’s practically impossible to “influence” it, only to shoot it down. And aviation handles this with above 90% effectiveness.
Even when the day before yesterday, when all the aviation was catching herds of cruise missiles in the western regions all night, they did not use this window of opportunity to send a wave of missiles and a large number of Shaheds (including jet ones) to Kyiv. No ballistics, no Shaheds β Kyiv more or less quietly passed that night. Only hourly information waves were made to keep Kyivans awake all night.
The window of opportunity in the Balay may close with a harsh winter for us. We are working and have to maximally disperse light and heat objects before winter. Therefore, they are already starting to hit critical infrastructure facilities around Kyiv. They also understand this window and do not want it to close before winter. And August should still be hot…
Instead of a conclusion
We are lucky they are working with red folders. We have long switched to another strategy. And with the arrival of Mykhailo Drapaty, I am generally expecting phenomenal changes in approaches to work against them.
An even greater understanding of windows of opportunity, where we dominate only in something new to which the rivals have not yet adapted. They will increasingly listen to the intelligent and creative, not just the loyal and those with longer service. Here, I see the opening of our new window of opportunities, despite those gradually closing. We can both open new ones and expand existing ones π.
P.S. In the video, the work of our maritime sanctions. This container ship was already under all sanctions, but now it just rebounds from the bottom of our Black Sea. Even near Novorossiysk, it is still ours π.
