The current geopolitical situation in the world shows the fastest degradation of the international security system over the past half-century. Analysts from the investment bank Goldman Sachs state: the risk of global conflict has reached its highest level since the mid-1960s. According to their estimates, this has already exceeded critical levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the intense confrontations of the Cold War era, and the upheavals after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
The main catalyst for this dangerous dynamic is Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, which has triggered a chain reaction of regional escalations and shattered the previous world order. Instead of local, isolated crises, the international community is faced with pervasive, interconnected divisions that, according to experts’ forecasts, will intensify at least until the end of the current decade.
Instead of classic diplomacy, the modern world is rapidly dividing into rigid, opposing military-political camps. The driver of this process is the formation of an actual alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Western analytical centers, including the RAND Corporation and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), characterize this union as an “axis of autocracies,” coordinating their actions to undermine Western positions.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not only destabilized Europe but also forced once traditionally neutral countries to reconsider their defense doctrines.
The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO marked a historic shift, signifying the actual “end of neutrality” on the European continent. Similar processes are occurring in the Indo-Pacific region, where China’s actions around Taiwan and the South China Sea are compelling Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to rapidly increase their military capabilities and deepen integration with the USA.
The danger of the present moment lies in the synchronization of several theaters of potential military action.
In the European theater, a protracted war of attrition instigated by the Kremlin constantly teeters on the brink of direct confrontation between Russia and the NATO bloc. Moscow’s constant nuclear blackmail lowers the threshold for the use of weapons of mass destruction.
In the Middle East, Iran, relying on diplomatic and technological support from Russia, is activating its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah and Houthis, blocking key maritime trade routes through the Hormuz and Red Sea, and creating a permanent threat of a large-scale regional war.
We must not forget about the Asian context. Here, North Korea’s militarization and the supply of North Korean ballistic missiles and personnel for the needs of the Russian army pose a direct threat to security in East Asia.
Analysts emphasize that Moscow consciously supports and inflames smoldering conflicts in Africa (through PMC structures) and the Middle East to disperse the resources and attention of Western democracies.
The world economy and geopolitics have entered a phase of long-term fragmentation. The era of globalization is being replaced by a period of a “fragmented world,” where economic ties are sacrificed for national security.
Attempts by Russia and its partners to create alternative financial systems, for example, within the expanding BRICS framework, are aimed at circumventing sanctions and preparing for a protracted confrontation.
Western experts agree: if Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine are not harshly and decisively curtailed, it will serve as a green light for other authoritarian regimes. The world is at a point where local indecision could trigger an avalanche process leading to a full-fledged Third World War by the end of the 2020s.
