Henry Patton and Noah Greene, CEPA / Translation by iPress
Senior Fellow of the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) Noah Greene and Special Assistant to the CEPA Vice President Henry Patton remind us that a year ago, Ukraine’s “Operation Cobweb” delivered an unexpected blow to Russia’s strategic aviation at several remote airbases, destroying and damaging dozens of aircraft and proving that a patient adversary with modest resources is capable of striking military targets worth billions of dollars. The authors warn: Despite these lessons, the West remains equally vulnerable, as demonstrated by attacks on American aircraft, the incident at the British Akrotiri base, and the closure of European airports due to drones. The main thesis is that NATO countries must recognize that they face the same threat and finally agree on how exactly to strengthen their own defense.
Ukraine’s use of drones against Russia’s strategic aviation has left an indelible mark on this war and beyond. It is a warning for the West.
On June 1 last year, it seemed like just another ordinary early summer day for the military pilots at the “Olenya” airbase in northwest Russia.
The base is located near Finland, so its personnel had little reason to worry about the Ukrainian armed forces, which were 1,770 km to the south. At least, that was what they thought – until a loud buzzing disrupted the silence. A swarm of quadcopter drones took off from the roofs of nearby parked trucks, where Ukrainian intelligence had hidden drones with explosives. They rushed towards the fleet of modern aircraft stationed at the base. Subsequently, at least four Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers were reported destroyed, and four more damaged.
While smoke rose over “Olenya,” Ukraine’s “Operation Cobweb” struck three more key airbases in different parts of Russia: “Dyagilevo” in Ryazan Oblast, “Ivanovo” in Ivanovo Oblast, and “Belaya” in Irkutsk Oblast. It is estimated that at least 12 aircraft were destroyed and three damaged, although these numbers could be higher.
The Ukrainians triumphed. They reached deep into Putin’s state and struck missile-carrying aircraft that had been terrorizing their country for long months. However, while Western military and analysts shared this joyful moment, they also realized something else: ally aviation and critical infrastructure are equally vulnerable.
How well these lessons have been learned is debatable. As shown by the war with Iran, American refueling and early warning radar aircraft have been attacked in recent months. Like Russian aircraft, they were standing in the open air. Ground defense did not work.
For Ukraine, these strikes marked a new campaign of medium- and long-range drone and missile attacks. Over the past 12 months, especially this year, it has greatly expanded. According to one estimate, in April alone, Ukraine launched over 2,000 missiles and drones at Russia – a record.
For Ukraine, this tactic is part of a much broader strategy. While the goal of “Web” was to destroy Russia’s strategic bombers, it also aimed to push Russia’s operational attention further from the front line – and this was partly successful. Other Ukrainian strikes have been much broader and targeted Russia’s oil infrastructure, which is a key financial support for the Putin regime. The effects of this campaign are becoming increasingly evident: Russian business associations are seeking permission to purchase their own air defense systems (just as Ukrainian businesses have been allowed to do).
From a tactical standpoint, operations like “Web” are critically needed for Ukraine to stay in the fight. Beyond pure military value, they demonstrate determination and courage to both domestic and external audiences. Although the war has been ongoing for over four years, Ukraine still lacks the manpower to drive Russia out of its territory and prevent it from delivering devastating blows to energy infrastructure, which threaten the civilian population in the heart of winter. For military efforts, it is crucial to show that the country is capable of fighting back.
The resources needed for “Web” are not easily replicated. Human resources, planning, and intelligence work – all this took over a year from start to finish. Russia is now better prepared. However, smaller scale strikes are quite possible and can be easily scaled up.
All of this underscores that Western armies need to realize they face the same threat. What would prevent Russia from launching intense air bombardments against Poland or Estonia? Both countries are aware of this threat (and possibly better prepared than allies located further from Russia).
In its ongoing struggle against the US and its partners, an Iranian “Shahed” drone, likely launched from Lebanon, hit the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus. The explosion left a large hole in the hangar where American U-2 reconnaissance aircraft are stationed. This attack vividly showed how little, it seems, the West has learned from the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Alarmingly, Cypriot hotels and airlines reported mass booking cancellations. If a single drone is capable of reaching the RAF hangar many miles away from active combat zones and causing mass panic, imagine the chaos Russia could wreak among European civilian populations during full-scale war.
Very recently, Russia began using electronic warfare means to direct Ukrainian drones into NATO territory. The violation of Latvia’s airspace by drones caused government shifts just two weeks ago. Last year, major European airports, including those in Copenhagen and Munich, were repeatedly closed due to drone sightings.
The “Web” operation proved that a patient adversary with modest resources and quality intelligence can neutralize military assets worth billions of dollars. And even a year later, the countries most in need of strengthening their defenses have still not reached consensus on which lessons should be drawn from this lesson.
