The possible signing of a temporary memorandum between the Trump administration and Tehran marks an important turn in Middle Eastern politics, posing direct threats to Russia’s economic and geopolitical interests. Moscow is trying to secure its position within the so-called “axis of resistance,” but Washington demonstrates flexible diplomacy of pressure, ready to knock out the Kremlin’s key partner.
The 60-day truce, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the de-escalation around Iran’s nuclear program effectively isolate Russia, leaving it alone with its own problems.
The most immediate and painful consequence of the deal for Moscow will be the economic factor. Iranian oil could return to the global market. In theory, the US lifts the blockade of Iranian ports and grants Tehran exemptions from sanctions for the free sale of oil in exchange for the demining of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s return as a legitimate player will lead to an increase in the global supply of raw materials.
Growth in supply will inevitably trigger a fall in oil prices (Brent and Urals). For Russia’s budget, depleted by military expenditures, a drop in the barrel price below the critical mark will be a heavy blow. Hence, Putin is fiercely intensifying his pressure on Kyiv.
It should also be noted that until now, Russia and Iran competed in the “gray zone,” dumping and selling raw materials to China and India. The legalization of Iranian exports will strip Russia of its status as the sole discounted supplier: Beijing will gladly switch to legal Iranian oil, reducing dependence on toxic Moscow.
At the same time, in recent years, the Kremlin has made a long-term bet on forming an anti-Western alliance, where Iran played a central role. This deal shatters those illusions. Tehran once again proves that its “anti-Americanism” is essentially just a bargaining tool. As soon as the US offered economic concessions, Iran agreed to compromises, ignoring Moscow’s interests.
Regarding Russia, it actively used instability in the Middle East (through Iran’s proxy forces) to distract Western resources from the war in Ukraine. The normalization of relations between the US and Iran deprives Moscow of the status of “essential mediator” in the region. Trump takes the initiative, leaving Putin out of the Middle Eastern settlement.
Russia’s dependence on Iranian military technologies has recently become critical in terms of supplies of Shahed-type UAVs and ballistic missiles. The memorandum’s inclusion of commitments by Iran never to develop nuclear weapons and to negotiate the suspension of uranium enrichment shows Tehran’s willingness to compromise to lift isolation. Under strict US monitoring, whose troops remain in the region, it will become much more difficult for Iran to carry out secret arms supplies to Russia. Any escalation in military-technical cooperation with Moscow will disrupt the long-term lifting of sanctions needed by Tehran.
For a long time, Russia tried to balance between Iran, Arab monarchies, and Israel. Trump’s deal completely changes the configuration. The fact that the memorandum project is directly linked to the cessation of the war between Israel and Hezbollah is a strategic defeat for the Russian Federation. Ceasefire on this front stabilizes the region under the US aegis. Despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s expressed concerns, Washington takes on the role of main architect of new security. Russia, lacking real economic resources to offer the troubled region, completely loses influence in the Middle East.
The conclusion of agreements between the US and Iran is a clear example of how American “deal diplomacy” can dismantle alliances of authoritarian states. For Russia, this agreement carries exclusively negative consequences: from financial losses due to falling oil and gas prices to strategic isolation.
