Oleksii Kalmikov, BBC News Ukraine
Donald Trump promised Americans to “make America great again.” So far, his successes are questionable. However, one country can definitely thank the American president for increasing its authority and influence in the world – China.
The main rival of the US in the battle for the status of leading world power gained unexpected advantages first from the trade war, and now from the actual war between the US and Iran. How did this happen?
China is not participating in the current war in the Persian Gulf, yet several leading American experts believe that it ultimately emerges as the winner.
Chinese analysts are traditionally more cautious in their assessments.
American experts note that Donald Trump started the war without warning, prompted a massive energy crisis, and cast doubt on the US’s readiness and ability to protect its allies.
“Both friends and rivals of the US increasingly agree that the country resembles a rogue state, threatening global stability and international order, and is increasingly becoming a subject of ridicule,” says American political scientist and philosopher Francis Fukuyama, one of the leading Western experts on democracy, governance, and world order.
“Under Trump, America harms itself so consistently that China hardly needs to do anything,” he writes.
The war with Iran and Trump’s trade wars have turned the US into an unpredictable and destructive force. This, in turn, has made communist China—the second most powerful economic and military power in the world—a kind of symbol of stability and pragmatic policy.
“From Beijing’s perspective, Washington is gradually undermining the foundation of its own power, quarreling with allies, and alienating the entire world,” notes Julian Gewirtz, former adviser on China in the National Security Council and the US State Department under President Joe Biden.
“As a result, more and more countries are convinced that it is easier and more reliable to negotiate with China than with America, which increasingly acts solely in its own interests,” writes Gewirtz, now an expert at Columbia University.
Renowned American economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman expresses a similar sentiment.
“China did not directly participate in the third war in the Persian Gulf,” he writes. “But it certainly does not hide its satisfaction at our humiliation. Both the course of the war and the role China has played have noticeably shifted the global balance of power in its favor.”
“The Chinese are serious, and we are not”
“Yes, China is a corrupt autocracy. Human rights are not respected there, and they do not share democratic values,” notes Krugman. “But people around the world have come to the conclusion: the Chinese are serious people, and we are not.”
“Therefore, in this war, America lost, and China won,” he believes.
The US and Israel’s war against Iran has inflicted military and economic damage on American allies in the Persian Gulf and other parts of the world. China, on the contrary, has acted as a stabilizing force.
Experts from the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment note that China’s main advantage is the absence of obvious opponents in the region. “Unlike the US, Beijing maintains friendly relations with everyone, including Washington’s key ally, Israel,” they write.
“The diplomatic influence gap between the US and China is narrowing. Beijing is increasing its ‘soft power’ and strengthening its position in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the US is weakening its influence by increasingly relying on force rather than diplomacy,” experts believe.
China has also acted as an economic stabilizer. To countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Beijing helped cope with the oil deficit. It almost halved its import thanks to huge strategic reserves.
This helped ease the energy crisis and prevented oil prices from surging to $200 per barrel—a scenario economists predicted before China intervened.
How the US is yielding positions to China
“This is a new dimension in global politics. Previously, when problems arose in the oil market, the US president would first call Riyadh and ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil exports,” said Javier Blas, chief oil analyst at Bloomberg.
“Now, it is possible they will call Beijing first and ask for an import reduction, he said. This is a very interesting twist, and very interesting what political consequences it will have for the US.”
In Blas’s opinion, China used its influence in the oil market for two reasons.
Firstly, Beijing does not need a global crisis. The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on exports, and a global crisis would mean that buyers of Chinese goods would have less money.
The second reason is more conspiratorial, but as a version, it also has the right to exist.
China and the US are constantly negotiating, so Blas does not rule out that the stabilization of world oil prices could have been part of behind-the-scenes agreements. What exactly was agreed upon? “One can only speculate,” he says.
However, there are indirect signs that Washington is softening its stance on Taiwan—one of Beijing’s key issues.
In May, the White House suspended a large military aid package to Taiwan worth about $14 billion. The official explanation was the need to conserve weapon supplies for the war with Iran.
And in August, Trump ordered a reduction in the scale of US-South Korea military exercises aimed at deterring North Korea. At the same time, he stated that he has very good relations with Kim Jong Un.
“Trump’s decision is not just a blow to an ally and a gift to Kim Jong Un. The Chinese authorities have long opposed these exercises, and lately particularly actively,” notes Julian Gewirtz. “When I worked at the US State Department, Chinese officials regularly raised this issue during bilateral negotiations.”
“So the reduction in the scale of the exercises is exactly the result that China has sought for many years,” he wrote.
According to Francis Fukuyama, such concessions by Trump may eventually provoke a new war.
“Trump said that China would not attack Taiwan while he is the president of the United States. He might be right: Xi Jinping does not want to interfere with the United States’ decline,” writes Fukuyama. “But if one day America elects a president who decides to change course, it might force Xi to act quickly and decisively.”
“We are no longer trusted and no longer feared”
For now, China is taking advantage of Trump’s mistakes and playing on his vanity, Fukuyama believes.
“Trump reserves his anger for internal opponents, not for foreign dictators,” he writes, recalling Trump’s May visit to Xi Jinping.
For now, China is taking advantage of Trump’s mistakes and playing on his vanity, Fukuyama believes.
“Trump reserves his anger for internal opponents, not for foreign dictators,” he writes, recalling Trump’s May visit to Xi Jinping.
“The entourage of this meeting showed how much Trump has lost authority in the eyes of the Chinese. The worst was his constant flirting: Trump called Xi “a great leader,” “a true friend,” and repeatedly praised China. Given previous contacts with autocrats, Trump probably expected reciprocity. But Xi limited himself to saying that the US and China “need to be partners, not rivals.”
Not only the Chinese respect American power less under Trump. As shown by a survey by the American center Pew Research, for the first time this year, the world began to view China more positively than the US. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping more favorably than the American president.
“Even many of our long-standing allies – countries that helped us win World War II, and then the Cold War – today treat China more favorably than the US,” commented Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman on the survey results.
Krugman, a long-time critic of Trump, believes that the problem is much deeper. In his opinion, Trump undermines the very foundations of American leadership.
His reforms and staffing decisions weaken the US’s positions in science and technology, military superiority, “soft power,” and financial influence. They also threaten the role of the dollar as the main global reserve and settlement currency. But most importantly – Trump destroys the alliances that have helped America remain the world’s leading power for decades.
Julian Gewirtz from Columbia University holds a similar view.
“The US is cutting funding for leading universities and creating conditions making it either highly unattractive or simply impossible for foreign scientists to work in America. Meanwhile, the US is dismantling its tools of influence around the world – from USAID to “Voice of America,” he writes.
“From China’s perspective, the US is effectively voluntarily disarming.”
The war with Iran became yet another confirmation of this, according to Krugman.
“Trump, consulting with almost no one, started a war that not only brought death and destruction but also cut off the world from a significant portion of oil and gas supplies. As soon as the war began, America demonstrated that it was unable to impose its will on Iran, lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or protect its allies in the region,” writes Krugman.
“So now the world no longer trusts us and no longer fears us.”
What they think in China
The Chinese are satisfied, but they are not rushing to celebrate victory. The situation may still turn against them, believes one of the leading Chinese experts on the Middle East, Professor Wang Jing from the state-run Northwest University in Xi’an, China.
“It’s not worth reducing the situation to a simple notion that America lost and China won,” he writes in an article for the authoritative regional publication Diplomat. “On the contrary, as the region enters a new phase of change, China may face new challenges, while new strategic opportunities may open up for the USA.”
Wealthy countries in the Middle East still depend on American military technology. And after the Iranian missile and drone strikes, their need for weapons has only increased.
Neither the UAE nor Bahrain will be able to simply find another military ally to replace the USA, notes Wang Jing.
“Neither Russia, China, nor Pakistan can currently fill the strategic vacuum if military cooperation with the USA significantly decreases. The Gulf Arab states seek to diversify their partnerships, but no other state can currently replace the USA as the leading military force in the Middle East,” he writes.
There’s another problem for China as well. The USA, as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, has strengthened its position as a leading energy power amid the raw material shortage due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Conversely, China, as the world’s largest importer of oil, has lost a significant portion of supplies from the Gulf countries, particularly from Iran. In the future, the USA could potentially further weaken China’s energy security.
“If Iran and the USA agree on easing sanctions against Tehran, significant Western investments could enter the Iranian market. Then, China’s long-standing economic advantages in Iran might weaken,” Wang Jing describes one of the potential problems.
There’s also a diplomatic risk. China will have to balance between countries that are hostile to each other.
Support for Iran might complicate relations with the countries it attacks, primarily the UAE. Conversely, criticizing or putting pressure on Tehran could worsen Sino-Iranian relations.
“Therefore, it will become increasingly difficult for China to simultaneously ensure energy security, protect freedom of navigation, and maintain normal relations with both Iran and the Gulf Arab states. This is likely to become a complex diplomatic challenge for Beijing,” the Chinese expert believes.
