The negotiations in Abu Dhabi predictably turned into ritual dances. There might be a prisoner exchange. This is necessary, but reminiscent of Minsk times and requires more the willingness of the Russians to exchange (when they need something) rather than any special formats.
Meanwhile, Russia again recalled its demand not only to hand over the Donbas but also for all participants in the negotiations to recognize it as Russian. As if to say, they always wanted this, and anyone who perceived their words differently was merely seeing what they wanted to see.
It seems that Putin dreamt he would break through somehow. That the soon-to-be-announced new strike on civilian infrastructure would force Ukrainians to capitulate. That allies would “get tired of Ukraine.”
This is despite the fact that the first signs of a collapse are appearing in sectors in Russia that were used precisely to avert a collapse. One of the largest developers, “Samolet,” appealed to the Russian government for a bailout and requested 50 billion rubles to cover expenses. The developers’ “pyramid” is shaking. We remember from 2008/9 how the destruction of such pyramids leads to—through a sharp drop in demand—industry, banks, and the labor market…
In short, the sooner the better.
But for Putin’s circle, this is not enough. The war continues; the boyars are loyal to the tsar.
In the dreadful days of March 2022, it was common to recall that in March, Russian tsars and dictators were often killed or removed. Four Marches of full-scale invasion have passed. The fifth is approaching.
Events clearly need to accelerate.
New Defense Minister Fedorov called the “strategic goal” the elimination (disablement) of 50,000 occupiers each month. This should exceed the capacity of the Russian military machine to recover these losses.
The fall of the Russian economy would be aided by stronger sanctions and mass retaliatory strikes—missile, drone, cyber…
All this forms an agenda that should be mandatory and unifying for all (yes, this is the part where the Government of Salvation is reminded).
But we don’t see this. Everything is slow, “so-so,” with a poorly concealed desire to hold elections quickly and ensure a retention of power.
But the Russians will not forgive this. They realize what’s at stake. For the highest Russian leadership, this is also an existential war, and for now, the cost of stopping is higher for them than the cost of continuing.
This is precisely the balance we need to work on changing. And by this, evaluate the effectiveness of all actions. Because it’s too long until next March. And at this pace and effort, it seems, we won’t make it in time.
Illustration: engraving by J.-J. Outhwaite “The Death of Paul I”
