I wanted to write about the resumption of large Shahed attacks, but it turned out that I missed an entire massive ballistic attack (MBA). And I’m sure you missed it too last night, because in all ballistic attacks (large, small, or combined) the main target was Kyiv. But not today. As you can see from the approximate visualization, the targets were Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia. Metallurgical enterprises in both cities were affected. Not a single missile on Kyiv.
First, let’s talk about the return of Large Shahed Attacks (LSA). They hadn’t occurred since spring because everyone saw the shoot-down percentage above 90% and thought that ordinary Shaheds were no longer in trend. Slow, not fast, very loud, and easy to shoot down even for machine guns from small groups.
But last night and the night before (October 15) showed that LSA of more than 300 units per night are returning. The day before yesterday, as many as 580 drones of different types were launched, and very few were reactive. And it all happened at night.
Yesterday, one could say it was a unique attack. The first Combined, but Small. Even surgical, I’d say. And it wasn’t planned by a regular operational unit. So there were many missiles and many targets. It came from the ground, sea, and air. These were such large combined attacks (LCA). More than 20 ballistic missiles, almost 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles from strategic aviation, and two dozen Calibers from the sea. Wow, Gerasimov himself signs off on such massive attacks.
And here’s a difference even from the day before yesterday’s LSA. Shaheds flew all day and all night. In total, more than 500 different drones, but they were spread over the day. And I wanted to explain to you why the LSA have resumed now, simply because the weather has deteriorated significantly. Look out the window β the fog above the fourth floor of buildings is hiding. So what can be said about the 200-400 meter height? This is a very difficult weather for our small air defense against Shaheds. But still, our Cossacks demonstrate an incredible result in shooting them down (although there was a lull in our air defense groups since about July). Yesterday 536 out of 580, and today β 253 out of 315 and 289 out of 332 were shot down! So today’s (well, honestly, I called it yesterday’s more because of the time, and only 8 hours of this night were today’s) attack is even larger than the day before yesterday’s. 647 against 580 drones.
And now we’ve reached why this attack is the first Small Combined. Because various types of missiles were added to these six hundred Shaheds! And there was strategic aviation, and for the first time in two months, Makarov launched Calibers from Novorossiysk.
More details (these are still approximate numbers, as the Air Force hasn’t given precise figures for a long time) on the missiles:
13 ballistic Iskander-M from Taganrog,
5 Korean ballistic Kn-23 from Voronezh region,
6 Caliber cruise missiles from Admiral Makarov from Novorossiysk,
TWO CRUISE, supersonic Kh-22/32 missiles.
And these two missiles are launched only from a single Tu-22M3 plane! And the last time such missiles were launched was a very long time ago. Just like the last launches β from the Sea of Azov or the edge of Crimea. So what do we have? No one from the monitors saw the Tu-22M3 take off (most likely, from Olenya), and no one heard the dispatchers go on combat frequencies.
More interesting details.
Why weren’t the old S200/300 used for the strike on Zaporizhzhia, which had been fired at the city since 2023. But they launched full-grown Iskanders from Taganrog. It seems that our defense no longer allows such impudence, for the launcher 70 km away to fire a salvo at the city π.
This Small Combined attack had all the components of a Large Combined Attack (LCA). Cruise missiles β Calibers instead of Kh-101. Ballistic β Soviet or Korean. Supersonic β Kh-22/32 instead of Zircons. Although I would also add Onyxes. But the turkeys saved them.
Even more Shaheds than in the last six months. The percentage of reactive ones is still negligible. 23 reactive out of 289 total Shaheds.
But this autumn and heating season, the turkeys are entering differently. New tactics, new methods. They’re trying. We’ll see, because we have no choice but to repel all this. Even in such weather, even with such allies π.
