We continue in the format “briefly from various directions”.
Today – Southern strategic operational zone, part I.
1. Novopavlivsky direction
The enemy (Russian troops) in the sectors of their 29th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Grouping of Forces (GF) “Vostok” and the 90th Tank Division (td) GF “Center” continues to conduct active defense along the Mokri Yaly River to prevent further advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) forward units in the general direction to the east, north, and south of the N-15 Zaporizhzhia — Donetsk road.
At the moment, it is evident that the enemy, despite counterattacks they carried out towards Dachne — Novopavlivka and Orikhove — Novopavlivka, could not retain their positions both to the north and to the south of the indicated road. Although in the area of Filiya — Novopavlivka — Orikhove — Dachne, there remains a fairly significant “gray” zone where several small enemy infantry groups are simultaneously recorded.
It is apparent that the enemy is trying with all their might to hold them in the area of Novopavlivka and Filiya to retain the capability to block the advance of UAF forward units along the Vovcha River towards Dachne.
However, to the south of the road, UAF forward units managed to cross the Mokri Yaly River between its confluence with the Vovcha River and the village of Piddubne and reach the line Yalta (village) — Zirka. It is evident that Ukrainian forces were also able not only to liberate the village of Piddubne but also to approach the outskirts of the village of Zaporizhzhia (not to be confused with the city). Thus, the enemy retained their positions along the Mokri Yaly River only south of the N-15 road. It is clear that in this direction, the UAF managed not only to reach the line Piddubne — Myrne but also to approach the villages of Komar and Perebudova from the west.
Thus, it can be stated that the units of the Russian 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (smb), 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment (mrr), and partially the 90th td (228th mrr), which are operating in this direction, have not yet been able to completely stop the advance of the forward Ukrainian units on both sides of the road. Although it is apparent they have achieved some stabilization of the front along the Mokri Yaly River from Perebudova to Fedorivka. It should also be noted that the advance of Ukrainian units is not currently characterized by a sufficiently high pace even tactically. For this purpose, in most cases, they have to conduct rather dynamic and stubborn battles, often repelling enemy counterattacks that stubbornly “cling” to every convenient position, cover, and line of defense.
Moreover, it is evident that the enemy is even trying to counterattack in certain areas and directions, aiming to limit the sections of active actions by Ukrainian units from the flanks. For example, in the directions of Fedorivka — Voskresenka and Fedorivka — Oleksandrohrad, the enemy conducted similar actions quite persistently, likely trying to break through to their own blocked small infantry groups, which continue to be observed in the areas of Sichneve, Voskresenka, and Oleksandrohrad. As a result, they did not achieve significant success (advancing approximately 800 m – 1 km westwards), but evidently managed to create certain difficulties from the southern flank for the Ukrainian units operating in the direction of Mirne — Komar.
2. Oleksandrivka Direction
The enemy continues quite persistent defensive actions in the sector of its 36th Army Corps, reinforced by several forces and means of the 120th Marine Division, as well as the 68th Army Corps. Moreover, despite a number of “loud” statements by official representatives of the national military-political leadership about the “complete liberation” of the Dnipropetrovsk region, a small part of it continues to be held by the enemy in the area south of Berezove — west of Zaporiza — Novomykyla, to the north of Kalynivske, as well as to the south of Novoheorhivka.
In addition, behind the forward assault tactical groups (ATGs) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, small residual groups of enemy assault infantry continue to be observed, quite deeply, for example, in the areas of Hai, Vyshneve, northeast of Radisne.
However, it should be acknowledged that at the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have managed to advance in the sector of the Russian 36th Army Corps in the general southeast direction at several sections and directions to a depth of 5-6 km to 12-15 km, achieving a certain tactical effect, in particular:
– In the direction of Sichneve — Maliivka, they managed to advance south of the latter, starting battles for it. Apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly but quite persistently advancing in this area towards Shevchenko — Burlatske — Pryvilne — Vilne Pole. From where they will be able to significantly impact the important logistical “hub” of the enemy in the area of Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka. At least, the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of Maliivka are already less than 5 km from the village of Shevchenko.
– Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to break through from the north, along the Vorona River to the northern outskirts of Komyshuvakha, simultaneously advancing in the direction of Ternove — Novoheorhivka, actually approaching Komyshuvakha from the southwest. In case of further advancement of Ukrainian units along directions converging east of Komyshuvakha (from Maliivka and Novoheorhivka), it will become very difficult for the enemy to hold Komyshuvakha itself, and the likelihood of Ukrainian advancement to the aforementioned area will significantly increase.
– At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, evidently, due to quite fierce battles that lasted several weeks, managed to liberate the villages of Berezove and Zaporiza, getting less than 3 km to the village of Temyrivka. This, in turn, creates quite obvious prerequisites for the physical “cutting off” by the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the important to the enemy raked road — Hulyaipole — Velyka Novosilka.
– They also managed to hold positions southwest of Kalynivske, repelling persistent counterattacks by Russian units in the direction of Novomykolaivka — Verbne, where the enemy was clearly trying to “outflank the left” of the Ukrainian tactical assault group advancing along the eastern bank of the Yanchur River towards Krasnohirsk and Pryvillya.
– Regarding the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along both banks of the Yanchur River, it has developed significantly tactically in recent weeks. In this regard, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have evidently not only liberated the villages of Rybne and Krasnohirsk but also started fighting for Pavlivka and Pryvillya. On the opposite bank of the river, it is likely that they reached the northern outskirts of the village of Solodke.
Thus, the advanced Ukrainian units operating in this direction have almost approached the key tactical “node” of enemy defense in the area of the villages Uspenivka and Novovasylivske.
However, it should be noted that despite achieving significant tactical results on several fronts during their months-long offensive, this has not yet led to a systemic disorganization of the enemy’s defense even on a tactical level nor produced a significant operational effect. This primarily concerns the right flank and the rear of the Russian neighboring 36th TAB and 5th TAB. This was evidently the main goal of this Ukrainian offensive.
Throughout the current month, the Russian 5th and 35th TABs have somewhat decreased their offensive activity in their sectors (partly due to the regrouping of some forces of the 35th TAB at the junction of the 36th and 29th TABs), but not significantly. They continue intensive “infiltration” actions of their forward assault (infantry) groups in the stretch from Dobropillia village to Charivne village in the general direction of Huliaipole — Orikhiv (more on this in the next part of the Southern strategic operational zone overview).
To summarize
I cannot yet confidently say that the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Novopavlivsk and Oleksandrivsk directions have been COMPLETELY stopped. In this sense, only a clear slowdown in their pace can be noted. As it becomes evident that the battles in those areas and directions where the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced today are quite fierce with very variable results for Ukrainian forces. Moreover, the real pace of their advance (2-3 km over a couple of weeks of fighting) does not yet allow us to hope that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will achieve a significant operational effect in these directions in the near future.
Furthermore, it is not even about the fact that the “DeepState” project ALREADY considers it necessary to indicate on their maps the depth and scale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance over the past months, as if hinting to us that the cessation of the Ukrainian offensive is very likely soon. The point is that, despite the fact that as a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive on the Novopavlivsk and Oleksandrivsk directions, they gained several “promising” tactical opportunities for further development, this does not and did not previously mean that they would be able to achieve this in practice. For one simple reason — the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced (are advancing) in these directions with very limited forces and means.
Moreover, it should be remembered that the situation in the Eastern Strategic Operational Zone for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is clearly not improving at the moment. The Russian high-level military command has clearly not abandoned (or rather, not postponed) its plan for an offensive operation in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction, although it has encountered a number of significant difficulties there.
In this sense, in my opinion, the most striking indicator may be the use by the Russian military command of most of its strategic and operational reserves. So far, in the operational zone “East”, in this context, we can only observe the 120th Separate Motor Rifle Division in the sector of the 36th Combined Arms Army + the 40th Separate Marine Brigade in the sector of the 5th Combined Arms Army. The reinforcement of the 29th Combined Arms Army by part of the forces of the 90th Tank Division in this plan is not a sufficiently convincing indicator (almost the same part of the forces of the 90th Tank Division went to reinforce the Russian military group currently advancing on Dobropillya and Druzhkivka).
It is obvious that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as directly General Drapaty, will have to make a very difficult choice in the near future — to continue the offensive with limited forces and means in the Southern Strategic Operational Zone with quite contradictory prospects (primarily concerning the potential impact of this offensive on the overall strategic situation), hoping to still achieve something more “significant”, or to focus on repelling the Russian offensive in the Eastern Strategic Operational Zone.
It is clearly impossible to “manage” in both places simultaneously.
Photo: III Separate Assault Brigade
