In social sciences, there is the concept of “path dependence.” The conditions in which a country lives and develops determine the direction, speed, and quality of its progress. Significant conscious efforts are needed to break free from this dependence.
After another Russian attack, it is worth returning to the review of scenarios, which we sometimes do here. Where is Ukraine heading after all – in the eyes of an optimist, pessimist, and realist? (Detailed discussion here and here). From the most favorable to those we don’t even want to think about.
1. Black swan for Russia. At some point, the system collapses, the invaders abandon the front and go home to decollectivize neighbors and plunder what has been looted. And the Defense Forces restore internationally recognized borders and justice.
This requires continuous pressure on Russia to multiply the system’s problems and attract “black swans” so they have a reason to appear.
2. Ceasefire along the front line. With various assumptions – “Korean,” “Japanese,” “German,” or “Minsk” scenario. Essentially a return to 2019 under worse conditions (probably why the government so insistently discredits this scenario). But with the prospect of joining the EU and NATO, continued pressure on Russia, and the liberation of occupied territories by non-military methods.
This also requires continuous pressure, with a search for response within the Russian establishment.
3. Strategic stalemate (continuation of the current state). With intensified mutual attacks on the rear, a creeping advance/counteroffensive, and a race of technologies – drone, AI, radio-electronic, missile, etc.
To win and move to previous scenarios, there is a need to endure strikes and learn to deliver effective blows.
4. Creeping retreat. The start of a scenario field we don’t want to think about but must, even to avoid it.
This is when enduring and planning better works out for Russia. Unfortunately, this is not excluded. This scenario is a consequence of management failures: by the Defense Forces, resources, diplomacy, technology, opportunities. Monopoly and corruption sharply increase the chances of this scenario being realized. This is what Putin hopes for.
And he dreams of something else:
5. Collapse or “black swan” for us. This is when one of the risk factors suddenly becomes critical. Either due to internal disruptions or changes among allies (change in government, shift in priorities, conflict with the authorities in Ukraine, etc.).
There are factors beyond our control. But, as the father of political science Machiavelli wrote, even if fate carries you along, you must swim if you want to reach the shore. Because if you fail, no one will care if you waved your arms beautifully.
This is why challenge and responsibility are about power. It has a chance and opportunities that directly determine Ukraine’s trajectory in the field of scenarios.
How to achieve favorable developments – it’s not about guessing and feng shui, it’s about plans, decisions, and implementation.
Information support and admiration for the actions of our Defense Forces are important and necessary. But for them to exist, painstaking daily work is needed. Supplies to the army, help from allies, and the enemy’s pain depend on it.
Where you go depends on how you move.
Collage: Radio Liberty
Copyright © 2021 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
