Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 05/31/2026.
1. On the night of May 31, the Saratov oil refinery of Rosneft was again attacked by drones.
– According to local sources, a large fire broke out on the premises after the strikes, and a thick plume of smoke rose above the industrial area.
– Preliminary reports suggest that one of the targets might have been the isomerization unit—an important element of the production cycle used to improve the quality of motor fuel.
– This attack was at least the fourteenth since the start of the full-scale war.
2. Ukraine reported successful strikes on several important military and fuel facilities in the Russian Federation during a large-scale night drone attack.
– According to the Ukrainian UAV Forces, 23 targets deep in the aggressor country’s rear were hit, including a military airfield, a missile complex, and oil infrastructure.
– Commander Robert Brovdi (“Madjar”) reported that Ukrainian drones attacked the military airfield in Taganrog for the second time in a week. He stated that the strike destroyed an Iskander tactical missile complex, which the Russian army regularly uses to shell Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
– Additionally, there were reports of two Tu-142 aircraft being hit. These machines, based on a strategic bomber, are used for long-distance maritime reconnaissance, patrolling, and completing special tasks. One of the aircraft might belong to the rare Tu-142MR modification—a specialized airborne communication relay for controlling strategic nuclear submarines.
– If information about the destruction or serious damage of the Tu-142 aircraft is confirmed by independent sources, it may become one of the most painful losses for the Russian military aviation in recent times.
– Such aircraft are quite rare and difficult to restore, with production long ceased.
3. The Russian economy is facing an increasingly deep investment crisis, which has become one of the main reasons for the sharp deterioration of economic growth forecasts.
– The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2026 threefold — from 1.3% to 0.4%, with one of the key factors of this revision being the reduction in capital investments. After a 2.3% drop in fixed capital investment in 2025, authorities expect a further decrease of 1.5% in 2026. Even according to official estimates, a return to the 2024 level of investment activity may occur no sooner than 2028.
– The situation is worsened by high interest rates, increased tax burdens, and the deteriorating financial condition of enterprises. The largest Russian companies, including Gazprom, Rosneft, RZD, Lukoil, Nornickel, and Transneft, are virtually not expanding their investment programs even in nominal terms.
– Notably, investments provided about half of the growth in Russia’s GDP in previous years. Now, this mechanism is practically ceasing to function, creating long-term risks for industrial modernization, infrastructure development, and updating production capacities.
– Against this backdrop, Russia continues to remain a net exporter of capital. Despite numerous Kremlin statements about “sovereignization of the economy,” “pivot to the East,” and prioritizing domestic development, substantial financial resources continue to leave the country. Estimates suggest that net capital outflow averages about 4% of GDP annually. Given the current scale of the economy, this is equivalent to approximately 80–85 billion dollars per year.
– Indeed, Russia is simultaneously facing two interconnected problems: a reduction in domestic investments and a continuous outflow of capital abroad.
4. The Russian import substitution program in civil aircraft manufacturing increasingly diverges from reality.
– According to the RF aviation industry development program until 2030, in 2025, it was planned to deliver 20 aircraft to airlines: 9 MC-21, 4 Tu-214, 2 IL-96, and 5 LMS-901 “Baikal.”
– The actual results were almost zero: only one Tu-214 was delivered in 2025, and no passenger aircraft were delivered in 2024 under the program.
– The first version of the plan envisaged the production of 102 aircraft in 2025, but the targets were repeatedly lowered due to issues with components, engines, and manufacturing.
– The program essentially failed and demonstrated the dependence of the Russian aviation industry on Western technologies and the challenges of mass-producing modern aircraft.
– As a result, RF airlines continue to operate old aircraft and postpone fleet updates, while the gap between official promises and the real capabilities of the industry only widens.
5. In occupied Crimea, a coupon system for gasoline is being introduced and fuel sales are being restricted due to a shortage of supplies.
– The occupying authorities of the peninsula introduced restrictions on the sale of A-95 and A-92 gasoline starting May 31. A-95 gasoline will now be prioritized for municipal and social transport, and at “ATAN” and “TES” network gas stations, it can only be purchased with special coupons.
– Even stricter restrictions apply to A-92 gasoline. Due to a shortage of supplies, its sale is limited to 20 liters per vehicle, and filling in canisters is completely prohibited. The occupying administration explains the decision by issues with fuel supply and assures that the situation will supposedly stabilize within 30 days.
– At the same time, the very fact of introducing coupons and limits on fuel sales indicates increasing logistical challenges and vulnerabilities in the supply system on the occupied peninsula.
6. The Russian fuel market is facing increasing risks of shortages and rising prices amid a reduction in oil product production.
– According to Rosstat, in April 2026, the production of oil products in Russia decreased by 9.2% compared to the same month last year and by 11.3% compared to March.
– The negative trend formed in the first quarter. The volume of primary oil processing fell by 1.6% year-on-year to 64.1 million tons. Production of automotive gasoline fell by 4.8% to 10.8 million tons, and diesel fuel by 0.6% to 21.4 million tons. Against this background, prices are rapidly rising.
– According to Rosstat, gasoline producer prices in April were 31.8% higher than a year earlier and exceeded the March level by 6.1%. This increase indicates a growing imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market.
– In recent months, Russian refineries have been regularly subjected to attacks by Ukrainian drones, leading to production shutdowns, repairs, and reduced processing volumes.
– Additional pressure comes from planned repairs of enterprises and problems with equipment modernization. The reduction in fuel supply increases the risk of sharp price spikes at gas stations.
– Already, the pace of gasoline price increases exceeds general inflation rates, creating additional pressure on the population and businesses.
