Vitaliy Portnikov / Vilni Media
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated that he personally asked the Russian leader to refrain from massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy systems during severe frosts. Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, emphasized that Trump indeed asked Putin to refrain from strikes until February 1, but did not report the Russian president’s reaction. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted that the energy truce effectively began on January 30, leaving it unclear whether it will end in a few days or truly continue for a week and possibly be extended.
This always happens with agreements that are not confirmed by any signed documents and are based only on oral discussions. And, by the way, this is exactly what Russia has always wanted – instead of a world “by rules,” a world “by understandings,” where one could simply “promise” and then forget. Although, truth be told, Russians also willingly violate signed agreements; this is, one might say, an element of their “political culture.”
But most importantly, we do not know why this truce is needed by Putin and whether there is an agreement that the Russian president will respect.
We understand that Putin is trying to prevent an outright escalation of relations with Trump – both because he wants to avert new sanctions and because he hopes to use contacts with the presidential administration in the United States for joint pressure on Ukraine, say, in the territorial issue. After all, it is clear that attempts to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to make territorial concessions lead to internal destabilization in Ukraine and possibly the occupation of new Ukrainian lands. However, attacks on Ukrainian energy are an important part of Putin’s plan. If he has decided to concede them, there must be more significant reasons than just relations with Trump.
Perhaps it’s not a truce at all, but purely an accumulation of missiles and “Shahed” drones for new strikes. After all, such situations have happened many times, attacks might not occur for several weeks in a row, and then they only intensified. And nobody called it a truce.
After all, let’s not forget about a more significant reason – Putin may indeed be bothered by strikes on Russia’s oil refining. And he may wish to stop them, but then not just for one week. But the question arises: what is more important for the Russian president – to preserve his oil refining or to destroy Ukrainian energy? And with drones hitting Russian refineries, while Ukrainian infrastructure faces missiles combined with drones. But we will get the answer to this question in the coming days and weeks.
Well, and another important motive that might have influenced the Kremlin’s decision is the negotiation process. On one hand, Putin can demonstrate his “constructiveness” to the Americans, and on the other, exert pressure on the Ukrainian authorities and remind them of the consequences of their intransigence. After all, one of the massive bombings of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities occurred just the night between the two rounds of negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
So there are many reasons to change tactics at least for a few days. But the most important question: does this undeclared truce bring us closer to real peace, and is it not evidence that any peace in the Russian-Ukrainian war can actually only be a “hybrid” peace?
Collage: TSN
