Almost all of Putin’s resources are drawn to the Ukrainian front. The Russian president still dreams of destroying the neighboring state and annexing its territories to the Russian Federation. And the tactic chosen by the White House in negotiations with Moscow only inspires Putin.
How can he also fight with Estonia? However, Putin may not have a real war with the neighboring Baltic country. In his attempt to destabilize Estonia and NATO, he may take a hybrid approach—the same one he attempted to apply in Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity. Then Russia went for invasion, occupation, and annexation of Crimea, while in eastern Ukraine, it didn’t rush with annexation, creating “people’s republics” there… In the case of Estonia, he might go the same way: send saboteurs into the neighboring country, announce the creation of the “Narva People’s Republic.”
The Kremlin’s entire calculation is based on the West once again entering “deep concern” mode and pretending that the seizure of Narva is an internal Estonian matter. If the US and the EU are afraid of direct confrontation with a nuclear maniac, this will become the actual end of the North Atlantic alliance. After all, Putin doesn’t need Estonian territories as such; his main goal is to destroy the reputation of the West.
The most interesting part is how the West will react. If the US tries to overlook Putin’s war against Estonia, if the EU says that direct conflict with a nuclear country must be avoided, then Putin will have the opportunity to entrench himself in a NATO member’s territory. And we could talk about the slow demise of the entire Alliance.
Thus, in the case of Estonia, Putin would need not Narva, but the political death of the North Atlantic alliance, after which Putin and Xi Jinping will be able to confidently feel like victors in the war against the collective West and leaders who have pushed the US far from the postwar spheres of influence.
Cover image: The border between Russia and Estonia near the city of Narva. Photo from open sources
